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LS R4 · 2026-10-10
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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find LS R4 · 2026-10-10 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3A DASHING PERRYUU
- C2#4FLAMING CARTEL ROSESUU
- C3#5LEVETATEUU
- C4#1HANDDELIVERED FAMOUSUU
- C5#6RCV BLUE FIREUU
- C6#11RAPID PERKS ICONUU
- C7#10CHICKS WITH BEERSUU
- C8#12CLAIMYOURPRIZEJESSUU
- C9#7SHAZOOMS RUNAWAYUU
- C10#9FMM TELLERIMA CORONAUU
- C11#8JESS SPECIAL BLUEUU
- C12#2MS MILAGRO CASHUU
A · Likely — expected flow
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps — · hurts —
B · Pressure — duel / honest
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps — · hurts —
C · Chaos — collapse
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | A DASHING PERRYMEDINA ALEJANDRO | 3.0 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-01 LS 1f 13.00 B MT ft 23/28; 2026-06-24 LS 1f 12.20 B MT ft 3/11 · barn: same as last | fMd5000 → Md 7500 | MEJIA JACOBO | Favorite |
| 4 | FLAMING CARTEL ROSESURIETA VICTOR MANUEL JR | 4.0 | U | Rising figsMSW → MCLTop last figSame trip2026-05-15 LAD 1f 12.60 B MT ft 2/5; 2025-10-24 EVD 1f 11.60 B MT ft 2/13 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md 7500 | RUBIO JORGE E | field |
| 5 | LEVETATEVIVANCO LUIS L | 3.5 | U | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-05-08 HOU 1f 12.20 B MT ft 5/11; 2026-03-18 HOU 1f 12.80 B MT ft 22/26 · barn: same as last | Md10000 → Md 7500 | REYES MARCELO JR | primed |
| 1 | HANDDELIVERED FAMOUSDOMINGUEZ JONATHAN | 6.0 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-06 WRD 1f 11.80 H MT ft 2/10; 2026-06-23 FMT 1f 13.40 H MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | Md5000 → Md 7500 | VARGAS MARLA DAYANA | primed |
| 6 | RCV BLUE FIREVILLATORO NOE | 6.0 | U | Same trip2026-06-09 HOU 1f 12.00 Bg MT ft 2/5; 2026-04-02 HOU 1f 11.60 B MT ft bullet 1/13 · barn: same as last | Md5000 → Md 7500 | GUZMAN ADAN | field |
| 11 | RAPID PERKS ICONGILES FRANCISCO | 8.0 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip2026-09-17 LS 1f 12.60 B MT ft 15/20; 2026-09-04 LS 1f 12.40 Bg MT ft 10/32 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md 7500 | BOLEN BRADLEY | primed |
| 10 | CHICKS WITH BEERSHUERTA ROMAN ARMANDO | 10.0 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-03 LS 1f 13.00 Bg MT ft 23/31; 2025-08-30 LS 1f 12.60 Bg MT sy 22/37 · barn: same as last | fMd5000 → Md 7500 | SALAZAR STEVEN | primed |
| 12 | CLAIMYOURPRIZEJESSHERNANDEZ H JAVIER | 10.0 | U | Rising figsMSW → MCLBarn changeSame trip2026-06-30 RET 1f 13.00 Bg MT ft 11/16; 2026-03-07 RET 1f 12.40 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: change vs TAYLOR EDDIE | MdSpWt → Md 7500 | BROOKS JEFFERY C | field |
| 7 | SHAZOOMS RUNAWAYALVAREZ ARTURO | 10.0 | U | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip2026-09-19 LS 1f 13.20 B MT ft 23/27; 2026-04-23 HOU 1f 12.20 B MT ft 5/20 · barn: same as last | fMd5000 → Md 7500 | SANCHEZ JOSE LUIS III | primed |
| 9 | FMM TELLERIMA CORONAGUEL ADRIAN | 20.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-04-02 RET 1f 12.60 B MT wf 19/36; 2025-07-10 RET 1f 11.80 B MT ft 4/19 · barn: same as last | fMd5000 → Md 7500 | ALVARADO ENRIQUE | field |
| 8 | JESS SPECIAL BLUEPEREZ FRANCISCO ESCALERA | 30.0 | U | Tag dropSame trip2026-07-13 LAD 1f 13.80 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-04-18 LAD 1f 11.80 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last | Md10000 → Md 7500 | CHAVIRA ANIREAL | field |
| 2 | MS MILAGRO CASHMARTINEZ OLIVER E | 30.0 | U | MSW → MCLSame trip2026-09-24 LS 1f 13.80 B MT ft 36/41; 2026-06-06 HOU 1f 12.40 B MT gd 14/15 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md 7500 | SANCHEZ RODOLFO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
PLAY passPass — no tote needed
- RACELS R4 · 2026-10-10 · D / 220y / Md 7500
- SHAPEAll-unknown pace, inside rail bias dominant (posts 1–3 win 60%), crawl or scramble likely — no overlay clears the bar
- CHALKFavorite#3 A DASHING PERRY · usable but short · post 3 hits the bias sweet spot, rising fig, 2nd off layoff, but ML 3 is chalk and no price edge exists
- LEANWinner call#3 A DASHING PERRY · best combination of bias post + rising cycle + 2nd off layoff
- PRIMED#5 LEVETATE (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, class drop), #1 HANDDELIVERED FAMOUS (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, inside post 1), #11 RAPID PERKS ICON (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, MSW drop), #10 CHICKS WITH BEERS (rising figs, 2nd off layoff), #7 SHAZOOMS RUNAWAY (2nd off layoff, trouble last)
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk horse carries a positive overlay; sheet rec is PASS
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLA primed horse from an outside post breaks sharply and steals the bias; live tote could reveal a non-chalk horse compressed well inside fair value
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt 220y MCL at Lone Star — a 12-horse chaos field where all pace styles are unknown, the bias log shows a hard inside rail lean (posts 1–3 won 60% of recent sprints, posts 8+ only 6.7%), and volatility is extreme given the MSW/MCL drops, multiple layoff returners, and total absence of call-position data. Chalk #3 A DASHING PERRY (ML 3, post 3) sits in a prime bias post, ran a rising fig (81 vs 75), is 2nd off layoff, and has the best position to exploit the inside rail — usable but short, and the model edge is only +0.006 with no price overlay flagged. #5 LEVETATE is the most stacked primed non-chalk (rising figs, 3rd start of cycle, class drop Md10000→7500, same trip, fig jumped to 78), but post 5 is outside the proven sweet spot and the model edge is just +0.002 with no overlay — the sheet sheet already says PASS on non-chalk overlays.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
#5 LEVETATEML 3.5Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip
#1 HANDDELIVERED FAMOUSML 6.0Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip
#11 RAPID PERKS ICONML 8.0Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip
#10 CHICKS WITH BEERSML 10.0Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip
#7 SHAZOOMS RUNAWAYML 10.02nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | A DASHING PERRY | 3.0 | 17.2% | 17.8% | +0.6% | 0.36 | U | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 4 | FLAMING CARTEL ROSES | 4.0 | 13.8% | 15.5% | +1.8% | 0.72 | U | Rising figsMSW → MCLTop last figSame trip | — |
| 5 | LEVETATE | 3.5 | 15.3% | 15.5% | +0.2% | 0.29 | U | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | HANDDELIVERED FAMOUS | 6.0 | 9.8% | 10.5% | +0.7% | 0.49 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | RCV BLUE FIRE | 6.0 | 9.8% | 9.2% | -0.6% | -0.01 | U | Same trip | — |
| 11 | RAPID PERKS ICON | 8.0 | 7.6% | 6.8% | -0.8% | -0.21 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 10 | CHICKS WITH BEERS | 10.0 | 6.3% | 6.5% | +0.2% | 0.39 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 12 | CLAIMYOURPRIZEJESS | 10.0 | 6.3% | 5.9% | -0.3% | 0.01 | U | Rising figsMSW → MCLBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 7 | SHAZOOMS RUNAWAY | 10.0 | 6.3% | 5.8% | -0.4% | -0.05 | U | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 9 | FMM TELLERIMA CORONA | 20.0 | 3.3% | 3.0% | -0.3% | -0.10 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | JESS SPECIAL BLUE | 30.0 | 2.2% | 1.7% | -0.5% | -0.76 | U | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | MS MILAGRO CASH | 30.0 | 2.2% | 1.6% | -0.6% | -1.13 | U | MSW → MCLSame trip | — |