SA R4 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#1 #3 #5)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1LISTENUPSHANCEE
- C2#3AHRENSE
- C3#5MAXIMUM BOURBONEP
- C4#2IMAGINATIONS
- C5#4MARCH OF TIMEP
Honest pace among #1 LISTENUPSHANCE and #3 AHRENS and #5 MAXIMUM BOURBON. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 MARCH OF TIME, #2 IMAGINATION · hurts #1 LISTENUPSHANCE, #3 AHRENS, #5 MAXIMUM BOURBON
Pressure: #1 LISTENUPSHANCE and #3 AHRENS and #5 MAXIMUM BOURBON hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 MARCH OF TIME, #2 IMAGINATION · hurts #1 LISTENUPSHANCE, #3 AHRENS, #5 MAXIMUM BOURBON
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 IMAGINATION).
Helps #2 IMAGINATION · hurts #1 LISTENUPSHANCE, #3 AHRENS, #5 MAXIMUM BOURBON
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MAXIMUM BOURBONRISPOLI UMBERTO | 1.2 | EP | Same trip2026-09-20 SA 5f 59.60 H MT ft 6/75; 2026-09-13 SA 4f 47.20 H MT ft 5/74 · barn: same as last | BCrosby-G1 → SaSprtCh-G2 | DAMATO PHILIP | Favorite |
| 1 | LISTENUPSHANCEJARAMILLO E | 2.0 | E | Top last paceSame trip2026-09-20 SA 3f 38.00 H MT ft 14/15; 2026-09-13 SA 5f 62.00 Hg MT ft 25/36 · barn: same as last | BCrosby-G1 → SaSprtCh-G2 | O'NEILL DOUG | Favorite |
| 2 | IMAGINATIONHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 2.5 | S | Sharp work2026-09-19 SA 5f 59.00 H MT ft bullet 1/53; 2026-09-07 DMR 5f 59.60 H MT ft bullet 1/30 · barn: same as last | Hanshin-G3 → SaSprtCh-G2 | BAFFERT BOB | Favorite |
| 3 | AHRENSROSARIO JOEL | 8.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-21 SA 5f 61.80 H MT ft 36/52; 2026-09-14 SA 4f 50.20 H MT ft 67/79 · barn: same as last | OC50000n1x → SaSprtCh-G2 | SADLER JOHN W | field |
| 4 | MARCH OF TIMEKIMURA KAZUSHI | 12.0 | P | Same trip2026-09-21 SA 5f 60.00 H MT ft 4/52; 2026-09-13 SA 4f 47.60 H MT ft 16/74 · barn: same as last | POBrien-G2 → SaSprtCh-G2 | BAFFERT BOB | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R4 · 2026-09-27 · Dirt 1320y · SaSprtCh-G2
- SHAPEThree-way early pressure (#1 #3 #5); stalkers #4 #2 inherit in honest/pressure scenarios; duel risk is real
- CHALKFavorite#5 MAXIMUM BOURBON · solid chalk · best class (BCrosby-G1 runner), top-range figs (100–103), works in order, EP style survives a pace duel better than pure E; short at 1.2
- LEANWinner call#1 LISTENUPSHANCE · best e1 in the field (99), won the BCrosby at DMR going this exact trip, has the pace to clear or contest and the late fig (85 LP) to survive a duel; model shows a small true overlay at 2-1 but 2-1 is chalk by definition
- PRIMEDnone
- PRICEno price — all overlays are chalk
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLIf #5 clears cleanly from post 5 and the duel never materializes, MAXIMUM BOURBON wins wire-to-wire and no closer matters
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, track bias (no SA meet sample), rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint G2 at SA, five horses, short field with three pace types pressing toward a likely honest-to-hot pace scenario, moderate-to-high volatility given the wall of early speed and a co-chalk configuration. The shape is a three-way early duel (#1, #3, #5) with stalkers #2 and #4 inheriting in scenarios A and B; chalk is a trio — #5 MAXIMUM BOURBON (1.2), #1 LISTENUPSHANCE (2.0), and #2 IMAGINATION (2.5) — meaning no non-chalk overlays exist on this card. No horse outside the chalk group carries two or more ready flags with a live price, so there is nothing primed and nothing to play.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MAXIMUM BOURBON | 1.2 | 36.0% | 36.0% | -0.1% | 0.24 | EP | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 1 | LISTENUPSHANCE | 2.0 | 26.4% | 30.7% | +4.3% | 0.86 | E | favoriteTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 2 | IMAGINATION | 2.5 | 22.6% | 20.5% | -2.2% | -0.15 | S | favoriteSharp work | — |
| 3 | AHRENS | 8.0 | 8.8% | 8.4% | -0.4% | 0.07 | E | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | MARCH OF TIME | 12.0 | 6.1% | 4.4% | -1.7% | -1.02 | P | Same trip | — |