FP R4 · 2026-10-10
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FP R4 · 2026-10-10 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#5 #3 #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5LITTLE SASSEP
- C2#3MISS SAIPANEP
- C3#6LILYS WOOFYEP
- C4#1MAMBA OUTP
- C5#4ALTERNATIVE GRACES
- C6#2ONACOUNTAC
Honest pace among #5 LITTLE SASS and #3 MISS SAIPAN and #6 LILYS WOOFY. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 MAMBA OUT, #4 ALTERNATIVE GRACE · hurts #5 LITTLE SASS, #3 MISS SAIPAN, #6 LILYS WOOFY
Pressure: #5 LITTLE SASS and #3 MISS SAIPAN and #6 LILYS WOOFY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 MAMBA OUT, #4 ALTERNATIVE GRACE · hurts #5 LITTLE SASS, #3 MISS SAIPAN, #6 LILYS WOOFY
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 ALTERNATIVE GRACE, #2 ONACOUNTA).
Helps #4 ALTERNATIVE GRACE, #2 ONACOUNTA · hurts #5 LITTLE SASS, #3 MISS SAIPAN, #6 LILYS WOOFY
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LILYS WOOFYARANGUREN JOHANIS | 2.0 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeTop last figSame trip2026-10-03 FP 3f 37.80 B MT ft 4/10; 2026-09-03 FP 4f 51.40 B MT ft 4/6 · barn: change vs MARTINEZ RALPH A | fClm4000n2yc → Alw 4000s | RANDAZZO TED | Favorite |
| 5 | LITTLE SASSBENDEZU ALEXANDER | 1.8 | EP | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip2026-09-12 FP 5f 64.40 B MT ft 11/11; 2026-08-29 FP 5f 65.20 B MT ft 5/6 · barn: same as last | fClm4000 → Alw 4000s | QUINONEZ MAXIMINO | Favorite |
| 4 | ALTERNATIVE GRACEFERNANDEZ MIGUEL | 3.0 | S | Same trip2026-08-27 FP 4f 48.80 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-04-23 FP 4f 51.60 B MT ft 7/13 · barn: same as last | fClm4000b → Alw 4000s | LYNCH HARRY E | field |
| 1 | MAMBA OUTREYES FRANK | 3.5 | P | Same trip2026-09-12 FP 4f 51.60 B MT ft 32/41; 2026-08-26 FP 3f 37.60 B MT ft 4/7 · barn: same as last | fOC10000n1x → Alw 4000s | CANDELAS BLANCA | field |
| 3 | MISS SAIPANTAVARES JAVIER | 12.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip2026-08-29 FP 4f 51.60 B MT ft 14/19; 2026-07-24 HAW 3f 37.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | fClm4000b → Alw 4000s | MARTINEZ JOEL | primed |
| 2 | ONACOUNTAMARTINEZ BRODY | 30.0 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-01 FP 4f 52.20 B MT ft 18/18; 2026-08-31 FP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n2y → Alw 4000s | HORNBOSTEL DENNIS | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFP R4 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1320y · Alw 4000s
- SHAPEWall of three EP types (#5 #3 #6) — honest/pressure pace; stalker #4 and presser #1 get the cleaner trip in A/B; closers inherit only in C
- CHALKFavorite#6 LILYS WOOFY (ML 2) / #5 LITTLE SASS (ML 1.8) · short · both speed-vulnerable into the duel they help create; neither is a fade on class, but neither pays
- LEANWinner call#6 LILYS WOOFY · top last fig (78), rising cycle, barn change, won last — best horse on paper even conceding the pace pressure
- PRIMED#3 MISS SAIPAN — 2nd off layoff (86d gap into return), trouble last (altered out 7/16, 2-4w turn), same trip; path exists in A/B if the EP trio hooks; trainer 0-4 on 2nd off limits confidence
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay; sheet rec is PASS
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#5 LITTLE SASS clears uncontested (lone-speed scenario collapses the shape); live tote shorter than any floor; late scratch changes the pace count
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint allowance at Fair Play, six mares, moderate-to-high volatility with a thin class bar (Alw 4000s) and two co-favorites sharing the chalk line. Three EP types (#5, #3, #6) project to the early lead, setting an honest-to-contested pace that favors stalkers; both chalks are pace-vulnerable. #3 MISS SAIPAN is primed (2nd off layoff, trouble last — altered out 7/16, 2-4w turn — same trip), carries live pace, and gets a cleaner path in scenario A/B if the three EP types hook each other, but the model edge is negative and trainer stats on 2nd off are 0-for-4 at this barn, so the flags are structural, not a ticket. The sheet has no non-chalk overlay.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LILYS WOOFY | 2.0 | 26.2% | 30.7% | +4.5% | 1.05 | EP | favoriteRising figsBarn changeTop last figSame trip | — |
| 5 | LITTLE SASS | 1.8 | 28.1% | 29.7% | +1.6% | 0.64 | EP | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 4 | ALTERNATIVE GRACE | 3.0 | 19.7% | 17.0% | -2.6% | -0.16 | S | Same trip | — |
| 1 | MAMBA OUT | 3.5 | 17.5% | 16.0% | -1.5% | 0.05 | P | Same trip | — |
| 3 | MISS SAIPAN | 12.0 | 6.0% | 4.9% | -1.1% | -0.39 | EP | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | ONACOUNTA | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.7% | -0.8% | -1.20 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |