PID R5 · 2026-09-28
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find PID R5 · 2026-09-28 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#7 vs #1)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7WETLANDS WILLYEP
- C2#1LOAN ME A DIMEE
- C3#6BLOCKBUSTER SMILEUU
- C4#3SNOWSTORMS
- C5#4TROPHY HUSBANDS
- C6#5NOBLE HEROC
- C7#8GLEAMINGC
- C8#2R ELLIOTC
Honest pace among #7 WETLANDS WILLY and #1 LOAN ME A DIME. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #3 SNOWSTORM, #4 TROPHY HUSBAND · hurts #7 WETLANDS WILLY, #1 LOAN ME A DIME
Pressure: #7 WETLANDS WILLY and #1 LOAN ME A DIME hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #3 SNOWSTORM, #4 TROPHY HUSBAND · hurts #7 WETLANDS WILLY, #1 LOAN ME A DIME
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 SNOWSTORM, #4 TROPHY HUSBAND, #5 NOBLE HERO, #8 GLEAMING, #2 R ELLIOT).
Helps #3 SNOWSTORM, #4 TROPHY HUSBAND, #5 NOBLE HERO, #8 GLEAMING, #2 R ELLIOT · hurts #7 WETLANDS WILLY, #1 LOAN ME A DIME
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | WETLANDS WILLYAYALA ADDIEL J | 3.0 | EP | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-20 PID 4f 51.20 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-09-03 PID 4f 49.40 B MT ft 4/13 · barn: same as last | Md15000 → Md 7500 | RICE KEVIN | Favorite |
| 3 | SNOWSTORMROJAS MARTINA | 3.5 | S | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-23 PID 4f 48.40 B MT ft 6/8; 2026-06-26 PEN 4f 51.20 B MT ft 24/27 · barn: same as last | Md7500 → Md 7500 | KINTZ S MATTHEW | overlay |
| 1 | LOAN ME A DIMEGALLARDO ANTONIO A | 4.0 | E | Rising figsMSW → MCLLed lastSame trip2026-08-31 PID 5f 61.80 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-08-24 PID 4f 48.40 B MT ft 2/6 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md 7500 | POTTS RON G JR | field |
| 4 | TROPHY HUSBANDRODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O | 4.5 | S | —2026-07-19 FAI 3f 35.40 B TT ft 1/2; 2026-07-02 FAI 4f 50.40 B TT ft 5/7 · barn: same as last | Md7500 → Md 7500 | ARRIAGADA JUAN | field |
| 5 | NOBLE HERODELGADO DAVID | 6.0 | C | Top last paceSame trip2026-07-30 PID 4f 48.80 B MT ft 4/10; 2026-06-03 PID 4f 49.00 Bg MT ft 12/14 · barn: same as last | Md7500 → Md 7500 | REUST MEGAN | field |
| 8 | GLEAMINGALENCAR WALBER | 10.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-05-11 PID 4f 48.00 B MT gd 8/26; 2026-05-05 PID 4f 49.00 B MT gd 2/4 · barn: same as last | Md7500 → Md 7500 | MORRELL JUSTIN R | field |
| 6 | BLOCKBUSTER SMILEKINGSLEY TAYLOR | 12.0 | U | —2026-09-09 PID 4f 50.20 Bg MT ft 8/9; 2026-08-20 PID 4f 50.00 Bg MT ft 11/15 · barn: GONZALEZ ALDANA (no last-line barn) | — → Md 7500 | GONZALEZ ALDANA | field |
| 2 | R ELLIOTMONSERRATE JORGE A JR | 12.0 | C | 2nd off layoffTag drop2026-09-16 MNR 4f 51.20 B MT ft 9/13; 2026-09-08 MNR 4f 48.20 B MT ft bullet 1/11 · barn: same as last | Md15000 → Md 7500 | UHACZ WENDY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEPID R5 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1830y · Md 7500
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#7 EP vs #1 E) sets up for inside stalkers; bias favors early but post 7 negates it; pressure high
- CHALKFavorite#7 WETLANDS WILLY · short/opposable · EP from post 7 into a duel, speed bias cuts against the outside draw, bounce risk off class drop
- LEANWinner call#3 SNOWSTORM · top fig in field, rising cycle, inside post, pace path clear in A and B
- PRIMED#3 SNOWSTORM (rising figs +4, led last, top field fig, same trip)
- PRICE#3 SNOWSTORM · ML 3.5 · edge 0.027 · overlay=true
- PLAYPrice ticket#3 SNOWSTORM · min odds 7/2 · WIN — at 3-1 or shorter, pass
- KILLSNOWSTORM's "led last" was at the first call only; if #7 or #1 clear wide and control fractions without dueling, lone speed can survive and the stalker never gets momentum; post 1 inside draw for #1 is a pace-shape wildcard
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes not on PP lines
Why
Dirt route, MCL maiden claimer at $7,500 over 1,830 yards at PID — moderate-to-high volatility given a two-speed duel setup and a field of horses that have mostly hit walls at this level. Chalk #7 WETLANDS WILLY (EP, post 7) projects to hook #1 LOAN ME A DIME through a contested pace; the bias strongly favors inside early speed, but post 7 bleeds that edge and a duel at honest fractions off a class drop makes the fade scenario real — chalk is usable but short and pace-opposed. #3 SNOWSTORM (S, post 3 inside) has the top last fig in the field (62), rising cycle (+4), led at the first call last out, gamely contested the stretch, and projects as the primary beneficiary in both Scenario A and B — the one primed non-chalk with a pace path. ---
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | WETLANDS WILLY | 3.0 | 20.1% | 22.0% | +1.9% | 0.62 | EP | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 3 | SNOWSTORM | 3.5 | 17.9% | 20.6% | +2.7% | 0.83 | S | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 1 | LOAN ME A DIME | 4.0 | 16.1% | 15.0% | -1.1% | -0.03 | E | Rising figsMSW → MCLLed lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | TROPHY HUSBAND | 4.5 | 14.6% | 14.9% | +0.2% | 0.32 | S | — | |
| 5 | NOBLE HERO | 6.0 | 11.5% | 11.1% | -0.4% | 0.11 | C | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 8 | GLEAMING | 10.0 | 7.3% | 7.1% | -0.2% | 0.13 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | BLOCKBUSTER SMILE | 12.0 | 6.2% | 5.8% | -0.4% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 2 | R ELLIOT | 12.0 | 6.2% | 3.5% | -2.7% | -1.99 | C | 2nd off layoffTag drop | — |