GRP R5 · 2026-10-11
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find GRP R5 · 2026-10-11 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7JESS F Y IUU
- C2#4STEL TIMEUU
- C3#2SLREASONWITHATTITUDEUU
- C4#6APOLLITICALCOLLUSIONUU
- C5#10HANDSOMEUU
- C6#1THREE BARS BLAZINUU
- C7#8CINDERELLA JGUU
- C8#5VR NEW DREAMUU
- C9#3DYNASTIES FAVORITEUU
- C10#9AWESOME COWBOYUU
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps — · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps — · hurts —
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | JESS F Y INUNNALLY BLAKE | 3.0 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd 8/19; 2026-06-17 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd 1/1 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | MAGALLANES HECTOR | Favorite |
| 4 | STEL TIMEOROZCO KEVIN E | 4.0 | U | Top last figSame trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 13.80 B MT gd 19/19; 2026-06-04 DIA 1f 12.80 Bg MT gd 2/5 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | MAGALLANES HECTOR | overlay |
| 2 | SLREASONWITHATTITUDEIBARRA SALVADOR | 4.5 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-13 GRP 1.4f 15.80 Bg MT ft 1/1; 2026-08-30 DIA 1f 12.60 B MT gd 2/7 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | LEON SERGIO | field |
| 6 | APOLLITICALCOLLUSIONJASSO MARK A | 5.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 13.00 B MT gd 10/19; 2026-02-22 LA 1f 12.40 H MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | MAGALLANES HECTOR | field |
| 10 | HANDSOMEPEINADO OSCAR M | 8.0 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-06 JRM 1f 12.40 Bg MT ft bullet 1/8; 2025-03-08 LA 1f 13.00 Hg MT ft 24/37 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | GONZALEZ ADRIAN | field |
| 1 | THREE BARS BLAZINMORENO CESAR T | 10.0 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd 3/19; 2026-07-30 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd 1/2 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | CURIEL BENITO | field |
| 8 | CINDERELLA JGJIMENEZ RAMIRO JURADO | 10.0 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-09 GRP 1.4f 17.20 Bg MT ft 4/4; 2026-05-27 GRP 1.4f 16.20 g MT ft 3/11 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | GOMEZ-CANCHOLA JOSE GUADALUPE | field |
| 5 | VR NEW DREAMANAYA ALEX V | 12.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 13.00 B MT gd 10/19; 2026-06-21 GRP 1.4f 15.80 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | CURIEL BENITO | field |
| 3 | DYNASTIES FAVORITEAMERICANO MANUEL | 15.0 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 13.00 B MT gd 16/19; 2026-06-07 DIA 1f 13.00 Bg MT gd 6/8 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | MAGALLANES HECTOR | primed |
| 9 | AWESOME COWBOYDE LUNA ERICK MAYORGA | 20.0 | U | Same trip2026-04-03 RET 1f 12.60 Bg MT ft 23/62; 2025-02-21 RET 1f 12.40 B MT ft 10/28 · barn: same as last | DbyTrl 4000 → Stk 42000 | PAREDES JORGE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEGRP R5 · 2026-10-11 · Dirt 400y Stk 42000
- SHAPEPace all-U / crawl map; speed bias + inside rail favor early types; chalk fits the shape
- CHALKFavorite#7 JESS F Y I · solid · GRP winner last, back-to-back 91-92 figs, same trip, no duel to oppose it
- LEANWinner call#7 JESS F Y I · form fits the track, the distance, and the bias
- PRIMED#3 DYNASTIES FAVORITE (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, trip trouble) — but peak fig 86 is well below the leaders; path exists if chalk stumbles, not a true win threat
- PRICE#4 STEL TIME · ML 4 · edge 0.022 · top zSpeed in field, highest fig cycle (106 at 220y, 94 at 400y GRP), only model overlay
- PLAYPrice ticket#4 STEL TIME · win · min 4-1
- KILLIf chalk clears cleanly to the inside rail off the break, the speed bias seals it; STEL TIME's works rank last-of-group in September (19/19) is a fitness question; no live tote to confirm price holds
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt 400y QH-style stake at GRP, ten runners all stepping up from $4k trial conditions to a $42k stake, high volatility from the class jump and a completely unknown pace map with all styles coded U. All pace unknown so shape defaults to crawl-likely (bias confirms early speed and inside rail win heavily), and the chalk #7 JESS F Y I is solid on back-to-back 91–92 figs, a GRP win last out, and the same trip — no shape reason to oppose it. Primed #3 DYNASTIES FAVORITE (rising figs 83→86, 2nd off layoff, bumped/brushed last out) profiles as a bounce/excuse horse but zSpeed at -1.98 trails the field badly and figs peak at 86 — well short of the top; #4 STEL TIME is the only model overlay at 4-1 ML, owns the top printed fig (99–106 range), won last at 400y at GRP, and the zSpeed of +1.89 leads the field. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | JESS F Y I | 3.0 | 19.6% | 19.6% | +0.1% | 0.13 | U | favorite2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 4 | STEL TIME | 4.0 | 15.6% | 17.9% | +2.2% | 0.65 | U | Top last figSame trip | — |
| 2 | SLREASONWITHATTITUDE | 4.5 | 14.2% | 14.4% | +0.2% | 0.17 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | APOLLITICALCOLLUSION | 5.0 | 13.0% | 13.5% | +0.5% | 0.26 | U | Same trip | — |
| 10 | HANDSOME | 8.0 | 8.7% | 7.5% | -1.2% | -0.48 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 1 | THREE BARS BLAZIN | 10.0 | 7.1% | 7.1% | +0.0% | 0.13 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 8 | CINDERELLA JG | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.7% | -0.4% | -0.13 | U | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 5 | VR NEW DREAM | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.5% | -0.5% | -0.20 | U | Same trip | — |
| 3 | DYNASTIES FAVORITE | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.5% | -0.4% | -0.25 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 9 | AWESOME COWBOY | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.4% | -0.3% | -0.27 | U | Same trip | — |