SA R3 · 2026-10-04

PASSD1210y2 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#3 #6 #1)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#3SURFIN THE COASTE
C2#6MAGIC JEWELE
C3#1ZADRAEP
C4#5SEPARATORP
C5#4CELESTIAL SKIESC
C6#2GLORYZ CLUBHOUSEC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #3 SURFIN THE COAST and #6 MAGIC JEWEL and #1 ZADRA. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #5 SEPARATOR · hurts #3 SURFIN THE COAST, #6 MAGIC JEWEL, #1 ZADRA

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #3 SURFIN THE COAST and #6 MAGIC JEWEL and #1 ZADRA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #5 SEPARATOR · hurts #3 SURFIN THE COAST, #6 MAGIC JEWEL, #1 ZADRA

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 CELESTIAL SKIES, #2 GLORYZ CLUBHOUSE).

Helps #4 CELESTIAL SKIES, #2 GLORYZ CLUBHOUSE · hurts #3 SURFIN THE COAST, #6 MAGIC JEWEL, #1 ZADRA

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
5	SEPARATORJARAMILLO E	1.8	P	2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-24 SLR 4f 49.00 H MT ft 2/10; 2026-09-18 SLR 4f 49.20 H MT ft 14/19 · barn: same as last	fOC50000 → Clm 25000n2l	MCCARTHY MICHAEL W	Favorite
3	SURFIN THE COASTFREY KYLE	3.5	E	Top last paceSame trip2026-09-28 SA 4f 49.20 H MT ft 34/54; 2026-09-21 SA 5f 62.60 H MT ft 47/52 · barn: same as last	fOC50000 → Clm 25000n2l	MULLINS JEFF	field
1	ZADRAGARCIA EPIFANIO	4.5	EP	Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip2026-09-20 SA 4f 47.00 H MT ft 7/97; 2026-08-28 DMR 5f 59.00 H MT ft bullet 1/23 · barn: same as last	fsOC20000n1x → Clm 25000n2l	BAKER D WAYNE	primed
2	GLORYZ CLUBHOUSEBAZE T C	4.0	C	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-26 SA 5f 62.60 H MT ft 68/73; 2026-09-20 SA 5f 60.80 H MT ft 17/75 · barn: same as last	fsMd50000 → Clm 25000n2l	MCCARTHY SEAN	field
4	CELESTIAL SKIESBAUTISTA ALFREDO L	5.0	C	Rising figsSame trip2026-08-08 DMR 4f 49.80 H MT ft 82/106; 2026-07-04 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 28/116 · barn: same as last	fClm12500n2l → Clm 25000n2l	HALEY GLORIA	field
6	MAGIC JEWELAYUSO ARMANDO	6.0	E	Rising figs3rd start cycleClass dropLed lastBarn changeSame trip2026-09-27 SA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 33/100; 2026-08-06 EMD 5f 57.60 H MT ft 1/3 · barn: change vs COOPER KAY	fAlw24000b → Clm 25000n2l	SADLER JOHN W	primed

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACESA R3 · 2026-10-04 · Dirt 1210y Clm25000N2L
SHAPEWall of early speed (#3 #6 #1) creates contested pace; stalker #5 inherits in A/B; closers only live in C
CHALKFavorite#5 SEPARATOR · short (1.8 ML) · 2nd-off-layoff, solid stalker trip, class drop from fOC50000, but priced too tight for a price ticket
LEANWinner call#5 SEPARATOR · best pace path in A and B, class edge, clean form cycle
PRIMED#1 ZADRA (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, top fig in field, but Baker claiming ROI −1.00 and 1430y→1210y cutback last masked the fig); #6 MAGIC JEWEL (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, class drop, led last, Sadler barn change, shipper)
PRICEno overlay — model edges are 0.014 (#1) and −0.007 (#6); neither clears a non-chalk overlay threshold; sheet rec is PASS
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILLif #3 or #6 clears uncontested and the duel never materializes, chalk's stalking trip dissolves; live tote could shorten SEPARATOR below any usable number; official scratches would reshape pace map entirely
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes not on PP lines

Why

Dirt sprint, $25K claiming (N2L), six horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early speed and a sharp class shipper entering.

Three need-the-lead types (#3, #6, #1) project a contested pace that favors the lone stalker (#5 SEPARATOR, chalk at 1.8), but both primed horses fire from the speed position into that same duel, muddying the shape picture.

#6 MAGIC JEWEL stacks five flags (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, class drop into the right tag, led last, Sadler barn change with a 0.79 ROI first-out number) and ships from EMD having already won and run second at this trip; post 6 is workable from the outside in a one-turn sprint, and the 15d gap between those two EMD starts followed by a 35d rest fits the 3rd-start cycle box cleanly — the one risk is zSpeed at −2.04, meaning raw speed is well below the field average, so she needs the duel to soften the front.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#1 ZADRAML 4.5Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip

#6 MAGIC JEWELML 6.0Rising figs3rd start cycleClass dropLed lastBarn changeSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
5	SEPARATOR	1.8	28.1%	29.1%	+1.0%	0.19	P	favorite2nd off layoffSame trip	—
3	SURFIN THE COAST	3.5	17.5%	18.1%	+0.6%	0.18	E	Top last paceSame trip	—
1	ZADRA	4.5	14.3%	15.7%	+1.4%	0.43	EP	Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip	—
2	GLORYZ CLUBHOUSE	4.0	15.7%	13.7%	-2.1%	-0.52	C	Rising figsSame trip	—
4	CELESTIAL SKIES	5.0	13.1%	12.8%	-0.3%	-0.04	C	Rising figsSame trip	—
6	MAGIC JEWEL	6.0	11.2%	10.5%	-0.7%	-0.23	E	Rising figs3rd start cycleClass dropLed lastBarn changeSame trip	—