IND R7 · 2026-10-06
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #6 OVER AND ABOVE
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3THEORETICALLYP
- C2#4A LONG WINTERS NAPP
- C3#6OVER AND ABOVEEP
- C4#9TROGLODYTEP
- C5#1FOXY JUSTICEC
- C6#2TAP BONNETC
- C7#8SWEET SUMMERTIMEC
- C8#10DREAMING BONITAC
- C9#7RUMORS ARE FLYINGC
- C10#5PRAYER UNBRIDLEDS
#6 OVER AND ABOVE controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #6 OVER AND ABOVE · hurts #1 FOXY JUSTICE, #2 TAP BONNET, #8 SWEET SUMMERTIME, #10 DREAMING BONITA, #7 RUMORS ARE FLYING, #5 PRAYER UNBRIDLED
Someone presses #6 OVER AND ABOVE. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #3 THEORETICALLY, #4 A LONG WINTERS NAP, #9 TROGLODYTE, #5 PRAYER UNBRIDLED · hurts #6 OVER AND ABOVE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 FOXY JUSTICE, #2 TAP BONNET, #8 SWEET SUMMERTIME, #10 DREAMING BONITA, #7 RUMORS ARE FLYING, #5 PRAYER UNBRIDLED).
Helps #1 FOXY JUSTICE, #2 TAP BONNET, #8 SWEET SUMMERTIME, #10 DREAMING BONITA, #7 RUMORS ARE FLYING, #5 PRAYER UNBRIDLED · hurts #6 OVER AND ABOVE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SWEET SUMMERTIMEMURRILL MITCHELL | 1.8 | C | Same trip2026-08-17 IND 4f 49.00 B MT my 1/1; 2026-08-07 IND 4f 49.60 B MT ft 10/23 · barn: same as last | fsFrstLdyHB150k → Alw 38000n1x | SILVA MIGUEL | Favorite |
| 2 | TAP BONNETPEDROZA MARCELINO | 6.0 | C | Top last paceSame trip2026-05-22 IND 4f 48.80 B MT ft 43/106; 2026-04-30 IND 4f 48.40 B MT ft 21/72 · barn: same as last | fsAlw38000n1x → Alw 38000n1x | GRANITZ ANTHONY J | field |
| 6 | OVER AND ABOVEPRESCOTT R | 6.0 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-26 IND 4f 49.40 B MT ft 11/24; 2026-09-01 IND 4f 49.20 B MT ft 10/22 · barn: same as last | fsAlw43000n2x → Alw 38000n1x | MCGOVERN SHANNON | primed |
| 1 | FOXY JUSTICEMENDOZA AMIR | 10.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-01 IND 4f 50.40 B MT ft 23/36; 2026-08-05 IND 4f 48.60 B MT ft 18/41 · barn: same as last | fsHooHtlndH100k → Alw 38000n1x | GARCIA GENARO | field |
| 7 | RUMORS ARE FLYINGBURGOS ALBERTO | 12.0 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-10-01 IND 3f 40.80 B MT ft 16/18; 2026-08-04 IND 4f 48.00 B MT ft 3/40 · barn: same as last | fsClm15000n2l → Alw 38000n1x | DOBBSJR ROBERT E | field |
| 9 | TROGLODYTEROMAN EVIN A | 8.0 | P | —2026-09-09 IND 4f 48.40 B MT ft 5/29; 2026-06-20 IND 4f 49.80 B MT ft 21/47 · barn: same as last | fsAlw38400n2l → Alw 38000n1x | DOBBSJR ROBERT E | field |
| 10 | DREAMING BONITAROMERO JOSEPH M | 12.0 | C | Same trip2026-07-24 IND 5f 60.80 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-04-22 IND 5f 65.20 B MT ft 12/13 · barn: same as last | fsMd15000 → Alw 38000n1x | CAZARES RENE JR | field |
| 4 | A LONG WINTERS NAPMONCADA IRVING | 15.0 | P | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-10-01 IND 3f 35.80 B MT ft 3/18; 2026-07-29 IND 4f 47.80 B MT ft 4/60 · barn: same as last | fsClm15000n2l → Alw 38000n1x | DOBBSJR ROBERT E | field |
| 3 | THEORETICALLYLARA VICTOR | 12.0 | P | —2026-10-01 IND 4f 49.20 B MT ft 10/36; 2026-07-29 IND 4f 53.80 B MT ft 58/60 · barn: same as last | fsAlw39600n1x → Alw 38000n1x | GARCIA GENARO | field |
| 5 | PRAYER UNBRIDLEDRAMOS JOSEPH D | 15.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-26 IND 4f 48.40 B MT ft 4/24; 2026-09-05 IND 4f 48.80 B MT ft 10/40 · barn: same as last | fsHooHtlndH100k → Alw 38000n1x | PHILLIPS TERRY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEIND R7 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1760y · Alw 38000n1x
- SHAPELone speed (#6 EP) over nine closers/pressers; scenario A favors front-runner; bias tilts inside/posts 1-3; #6 draws post 6 — workable but not ideal
- CHALKFavorite#8 SWEET SUMMERTIME · 1.8-ML · usable but short · C style needs a pace duel that the map does not supply; post 8 fights the inside bias; overlay flag exists but chalk rule blocks it as PLAY
- LEANWinner call#6 OVER AND ABOVE · lone speed, class relief, primed cycle, scenario A path
- PRIMED#6 OVER AND ABOVE (rising figs +10, 3rd-start cycle, same trip) — no second non-chalk primed with a clear path
- PRICEno non-chalk overlays (model edge negative on all non-chalk horses)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLA presser materializes and hooks #6 early (scenario B), or #8 tracks a collapsed pace and closes unopposed
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes
Why
Dirt route, n1x allowance, ten runners, moderate volatility with a lone-speed map and a deep field of closers who need a pace meltdown that may never come. #6 OVER AND ABOVE is the lone EP type projecting to clear and control, while chalk #8 SWEET SUMMERTIME (1.8-ML) is a C style from post 8 who needs pace help that the map does not guarantee. #6 OVER AND ABOVE is primed — rising figs (61 vs prior 51), third start of the cycle, same trip — and gets a class relief drop from n2x to n1x; if she controls in scenario A, she is live at 6-1 morning line, but the model has her as a non-overlay (edge −0.026), which keeps this a LEAN-only call. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SWEET SUMMERTIME | 1.8 | 29.7% | 34.6% | +4.8% | 0.79 | C | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 2 | TAP BONNET | 6.0 | 11.9% | 11.9% | -0.0% | 0.18 | C | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | OVER AND ABOVE | 6.0 | 11.9% | 9.3% | -2.6% | -0.82 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 1 | FOXY JUSTICE | 10.0 | 7.6% | 8.9% | +1.3% | 0.83 | C | Same trip | — |
| 7 | RUMORS ARE FLYING | 12.0 | 6.4% | 7.5% | +1.1% | 0.82 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 9 | TROGLODYTE | 8.0 | 9.3% | 6.3% | -2.9% | -1.35 | P | — | |
| 10 | DREAMING BONITA | 12.0 | 6.4% | 6.1% | -0.3% | 0.01 | C | Same trip | — |
| 4 | A LONG WINTERS NAP | 15.0 | 5.2% | 5.7% | +0.5% | 0.54 | P | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | THEORETICALLY | 12.0 | 6.4% | 5.6% | -0.8% | -0.38 | P | — | |
| 5 | PRAYER UNBRIDLED | 15.0 | 5.2% | 4.3% | -1.0% | -0.62 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |