FP R2 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#3 #5 #2)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3LILYS HOMEE
- C2#5GOLDEN EDGEEP
- C3#6LOOK N MIGHTY FINEP
- C4#4COOKIN THE BOOKSP
- C5#2LA PALABRAEP
- C6#1NO PAY NO HAYS
- C7#7GRAZEN GATORC
Honest pace among #3 LILYS HOME and #5 GOLDEN EDGE and #2 LA PALABRA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 LOOK N MIGHTY FINE, #4 COOKIN THE BOOKS, #1 NO PAY NO HAY · hurts #3 LILYS HOME, #5 GOLDEN EDGE, #2 LA PALABRA
Pressure: #3 LILYS HOME and #5 GOLDEN EDGE and #2 LA PALABRA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 LOOK N MIGHTY FINE, #4 COOKIN THE BOOKS, #1 NO PAY NO HAY · hurts #3 LILYS HOME, #5 GOLDEN EDGE, #2 LA PALABRA
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 NO PAY NO HAY, #7 GRAZEN GATOR).
Helps #1 NO PAY NO HAY, #7 GRAZEN GATOR · hurts #3 LILYS HOME, #5 GOLDEN EDGE, #2 LA PALABRA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LOOK N MIGHTY FINEFELIX J E | 1.0 | P | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-08-27 FP 3f 37.80 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-07-29 FP 4f 52.80 B MT ft 26/27 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n3l → Clm 5000n4l | WATKINS JAMES M | Favorite |
| 1 | NO PAY NO HAYARANGUREN JOHANIS | 2.0 | S | Tag dropTop last paceSame trip2026-09-30 FP 4f 52.40 B MT ft 9/11; 2026-09-18 FP 4f 50.80 B MT ft 3/9 · barn: same as last | fClm6250n4l → Clm 5000n4l | MANLEY STEVE | Favorite |
| 5 | GOLDEN EDGEORM CORY | 6.0 | EP | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-25 FP 4f 50.20 B MT ft 7/14; 2026-07-15 FP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 10/18 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n4l → Clm 5000n4l | HORNSBY TAMMY | field |
| 3 | LILYS HOMEMARTINEZ BRODY | 9.0 | E | Rising figsTrouble lastTag dropLed lastSame trip2026-10-01 FP 4f 51.60 B MT ft 15/18; 2026-08-14 FP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 3/16 · barn: same as last | fClm6250n3l → Clm 5000n4l | SANDROWSKI GENE J | primed |
| 4 | COOKIN THE BOOKSARRIETA REYNIER | 10.0 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip2026-10-03 FP 3f 38.00 B MT ft 5/10; 2026-07-15 FP 3f 37.80 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last | fClm6250n4l → Clm 5000n4l | WATKINS JAMES M | primed |
| 2 | LA PALABRABAILON VICTOR JADHIR | 12.0 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-09-24 FP 4f 48.60 B MT ft 3/13; 2026-07-03 EVD 3f 37.60 B MT ft 5/9 · barn: change vs GONZALEZ ISAI V | fClm5000 → Clm 5000n4l | DELONG BEN | field |
| 7 | GRAZEN GATORDIEGO JAVIER | 30.0 | C | —2026-09-16 FP 3f 37.80 B MT ft 4/7; 2026-07-04 FP 3f 38.60 B MT ft 11/15 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n2y → Clm 5000n4l | JAIME RICARDO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFP R2 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 5000n4l
- SHAPEWall of speed (#3 E / #5 EP / #2 EP) → honest-to-high pace; stalkers #6 and #4 are the primary pace beneficiaries
- CHALKFavorite#6 LOOK N MIGHTY FINE (ML 1) — solid; top fig, best pace position, model edge; short and a sheet pass
- LEANWinner call#6 LOOK N MIGHTY FINE — rightful winner, best fig, cleanest trip shape
- PRIMED#3 LILYS HOME (rising figs +11, trouble last, class drop, led last) — path exists but E into own duel is a fade risk; #4 COOKIN THE BOOKS (rising figs +3, trouble last, class drop) — P with a stalking path in A/B
- PRICEno non-chalk overlays (sheet rec PASS)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no primed, non-chalk overlay with a clean A/B path at a price; #4 is primed but model edge is negative and fig ceiling too low to go against chalk at this tag
- KILLpace collapses / lone speed scenario; #3 or #2 clear; live tote shows chalk hammered below ML (no overlay on anything)
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint claiming at FP, wall of early speed creating honest-to-high pressure in a thin, noisy 7-horse field — moderate-to-high volatility given the pace meltdown risk. Three horses share the early ground (#3, #5, #2), chalk #6 LOOK N MIGHTY FINE sits the best pace position (P, call1 3) with the top fig in the field and a model edge, but it is the shortest price and a sheet pass as a play. #3 LILYS HOME is primed (rising figs +11, trouble last, class drop, led last) and draws right into the speed, but its path is E into the same duel it faded from last — the honest pace of Scenario A could empty it again; #4 COOKIN THE BOOKS (P, 10-1 ML, rising figs +3, trouble last, class drop) sits a cleaner stalking spot one position behind the speed and has a real path in both A and B, though its absolute fig ceiling (59) is well below chalk and the signal is negative. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LOOK N MIGHTY FINE | 1.0 | 39.2% | 42.4% | +3.2% | 0.81 | P | favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 1 | NO PAY NO HAY | 2.0 | 26.1% | 26.4% | +0.3% | 0.54 | S | favoriteTag dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 5 | GOLDEN EDGE | 6.0 | 11.2% | 10.6% | -0.6% | 0.26 | EP | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 3 | LILYS HOME | 9.0 | 7.8% | 7.8% | +0.0% | 0.50 | E | Rising figsTrouble lastTag dropLed lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | COOKIN THE BOOKS | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.0% | -1.1% | -0.16 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | LA PALABRA | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.5% | -0.5% | 0.15 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 7 | GRAZEN GATOR | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.3% | -1.2% | -2.10 | C | — |