ASD R5 · 2026-10-06
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2GRENACHEE
- C2#3DREAMIN OUT LOUDEP
- C3#5MISSPENNYMISCHIEFP
- C4#6STEAL YOUR SOULS
- C5#4POINT MAIDC
- C6#1EZ TREE ATESC
Honest pace among #2 GRENACHE and #3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #5 MISSPENNYMISCHIEF, #6 STEAL YOUR SOUL · hurts #2 GRENACHE, #3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD
Pressure: #2 GRENACHE and #3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #5 MISSPENNYMISCHIEF, #6 STEAL YOUR SOUL · hurts #2 GRENACHE, #3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 STEAL YOUR SOUL, #4 POINT MAID, #1 EZ TREE ATES).
Helps #6 STEAL YOUR SOUL, #4 POINT MAID, #1 EZ TREE ATES · hurts #2 GRENACHE, #3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MISSPENNYMISCHIEFSTEPHENSON NEVILLE | 1.8 | P | 2nd off layoffClass dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-16 ASD 4f 49.40 B MT ft 3/9; 2026-08-18 ASD 4f 50.80 B MT ft 7/13 · barn: same as last | fAlw13803n2l → Clm 10000n3l | HOMER JASON | Favorite |
| 1 | EZ TREE ATESBALROOP SVEN | 1.6 | C | Class dropBarn change2026-08-23 CBY 4f 49.60 B MT ft 14/36; 2026-06-16 ASD 4f 50.40 B MT ft 9/19 · barn: change vs RARICK LYNN | fAlw23500b → Clm 10000n3l | PRUITT LISE | Favorite |
| 3 | DREAMIN OUT LOUDKNIGHTS RACHAAD | 3.0 | EP | Top last fig2026-08-30 ASD 4f 50.40 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-08-23 ASD 4f 50.60 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | fsDistaff41k → Clm 10000n3l | HUNTER JUDY | overlay |
| 6 | STEAL YOUR SOULMUNOZ LARRY | 10.0 | S | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-05 ASD 4f 49.40 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-08-26 ASD 3f 38.60 B MT ft 6/9 · barn: same as last | fOC15625b → Clm 10000n3l | STANFORD MARIA | field |
| 2 | GRENACHEKHELAWAN KERRON | 12.0 | E | Same trip2026-07-15 ASD 3f 38.80 B MT ft 7/7; 2026-07-08 ASD 3f 38.80 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: same as last | fClm7500n3l → Clm 10000n3l | ANDERSON WENDY | field |
| 4 | POINT MAIDBREWSTER RASHAWN | 25.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-23 ASD 3f 38.80 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-08-05 ASD 4f 51.20 B MT ft 12/19 · barn: same as last | fsClm10000b → Clm 10000n3l | NEUBUHR TERRY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEASD R5 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 10000n3l
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#2 vs #3) — high pressure favors stalkers/closers; inside-rail/speed bias partially offsets closer advantage; moderate-high volatility
- CHALKFavorite#5 MISSPENNYMISCHIEF (ML 1.8) and #1 EZ TREE ATES (ML 1.6) co-chalk — #5 short but has 2nd-off-layoff + class drop; #1 off turf routes with cratering figs and new barn, opposable on form; both auto-pass as plays
- LEANWinner call#3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD — top fig in the field, top zForm/zSpeed, has won at this sprint trip, pace path exists in A (duel participant who can track and hold) and B (pressure softens the others)
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches 2+ ready flags)
- PRICE#3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD · ML 3 · edge +0.052 · only non-chalk overlay
- PLAYPrice ticket#3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD · win · minimum 3-1 (at ML fair value; below 5-2 pass)
- KILL#3's claiming key shows 0-for-4 in sprint-to-route-to-sprint cycles with a negative ROI; if she breaks poorly or gets hooked in the duel early rather than tracking from just off it, she burns her advantage; a dry track that speeds up further could let the lone-speed scenario (#2 clearing) emerge instead
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches after ingest, weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint claiming with a two-speed duel projected up front makes this a stalker/closer track on a bias that already leans inside and early, adding volatility to the pace picture. The two chalks (#5 MISSPENNYMISCHIEF at 1.8 and #1 EZ TREE ATES at 1.6) split the market on opposite styles—#5 is the class-dropping presser with pace flags but a soft fig, while #1 arrives off two turf routes with a barn change and cratering form signals; neither is opposable on shape alone, but neither screams value. The only model overlay is #3 DREAMIN OUT LOUD (ML 3, edge +0.052), an EP whose top zForm and zSpeed in the field gives her a live path in scenario A if she can draft off the duel she helped create last out.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Pace + drop
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MISSPENNYMISCHIEF | 1.8 | 29.8% | 29.8% | +0.0% | 0.03 | P | favorite2nd off layoffClass dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | EZ TREE ATES | 1.6 | 32.1% | 26.6% | -5.5% | -0.72 | C | favoriteClass dropBarn change | — |
| 3 | DREAMIN OUT LOUD | 3.0 | 20.9% | 26.0% | +5.2% | 0.91 | EP | Top last fig | — |
| 6 | STEAL YOUR SOUL | 10.0 | 7.6% | 8.4% | +0.8% | 0.42 | S | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 2 | GRENACHE | 12.0 | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.0% | 0.00 | E | Same trip | — |
| 4 | POINT MAID | 25.0 | 3.2% | 2.7% | -0.5% | -0.64 | C | Same trip | — |