MNR R4 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#5 vs #1)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5EVERHEARTEP
- C2#1PRINCIPIAEP
- C3#2X GENES
- C4#6SUGAR BRITCHESP
- C5#3DENALI RAES
- C6#4ALTER THE STARSC
Honest pace among #5 EVERHEART and #1 PRINCIPIA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 SUGAR BRITCHES, #2 X GENE, #3 DENALI RAE · hurts #5 EVERHEART, #1 PRINCIPIA
Pressure: #5 EVERHEART and #1 PRINCIPIA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 SUGAR BRITCHES, #2 X GENE, #3 DENALI RAE · hurts #5 EVERHEART, #1 PRINCIPIA
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 X GENE, #3 DENALI RAE, #4 ALTER THE STARS).
Helps #2 X GENE, #3 DENALI RAE, #4 ALTER THE STARS · hurts #5 EVERHEART, #1 PRINCIPIA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | EVERHEARTNEGRON LUIS | 1.2 | EP | Tag dropLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-06-16 MNR 4f 51.00 B MT ft 21/29; 2026-06-09 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 9/18 · barn: same as last | fClm7500b → Clm 4000n1x | VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOS | Favorite |
| 1 | PRINCIPIAKEISER CHELSEY | 2.5 | EP | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-05-01 PRX 4f 48.60 B MT ft 10/28; 2026-04-22 PRX 4f 49.00 B MT ft 13/42 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n2y → Clm 4000n1x | CCAMAQUE MARCO | Favorite |
| 3 | DENALI RAEATHERTON JONATHON R | 5.0 | S | Same trip2026-09-16 MNR 4f 49.20 B MT ft 3/13; 2026-09-05 MNR 5f 61.60 B D MT my 1/1 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | PESSANHA NEY | field |
| 4 | ALTER THE STARSBRACHO AUGUSTIN | 7.0 | C | Same trip2026-05-09 MNR 3f 36.60 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-04-29 MNR 3f 38.20 B D MT ft 8/10 · barn: same as last | fClm3200b → Clm 4000n1x | AGUIRRE JUAN R | field |
| 2 | X GENEBARRIOS RICARDO | 10.0 | S | Same trip2026-09-20 MNR 3f 36.20 B MT ft 2/6; 2026-07-31 MNR 3f 36.00 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n1y → Clm 4000n1x | DEMCZYK VIRGINIA | field |
| 6 | SUGAR BRITCHESMARTINEZ MIGUEL L | 15.0 | P | Rising figsLed last2026-06-16 MNR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 11/29; 2026-04-07 MNR 4f 51.00 B MT ft 32/37 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | WITHEROW WILLIAM G | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R4 · 2026-09-27 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 4000n1x
- SHAPETwo-EP duel (#5 vs #1) on a speed/inside-bias track; duel sets up stalkers but no non-chalk overlay survives the filter
- CHALKFavorite#5 EVERHEART (1.2 ML) — solid top fig, top pace, class drop, inside-favoring track; also #1 PRINCIPIA (2.5 ML) — rising figs, class drop, pace fit but weaker signal and trainer concern; both chalk
- LEANWinner call#5 EVERHEART — top fig (66), top E1 (92–93), class drop from fClm7500, speed bias and inside posts (5 is mid-post but pace map puts it on the engine); most likely winner even if the duel costs it late
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches 2+ flags with a path)
- PRICEno non-chalk overlay
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — the only model overlay is chalk (#5 EVERHEART); no price horse qualifies
- KILL#1 PRINCIPIA gets loose on the rail and steals it wire-to-wire; or a presser/stalker (post 6 outside) collects a blown pace cheaply
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant day-of, rider changes after ingest
Why
Dirt sprint at the bottom of the claiming ladder with a speed-biased, rail-favoring track and a six-horse field that screams duel — moderate-to-high volatility given the two front-runners colliding. #5 EVERHEART and #1 PRINCIPIA are both EP types who need to be on or near the lead, creating a genuine pace duel that sets up the mid-pack runners, but both are chalk and the sheet rec is PASS on non-chalk overlays — there are none. No horse clears two primed flags plus a pace path at a price: #2 X GENE has decent zPace and a capable trainer in claiming sprints but figs are soft and the model shows no overlay; no primed play exists. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | EVERHEART | 1.2 | 38.3% | 44.8% | +6.5% | 1.01 | EP | favoriteTag dropLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | PRINCIPIA | 2.5 | 24.1% | 23.2% | -0.9% | 0.23 | EP | favoriteRising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 3 | DENALI RAE | 5.0 | 14.1% | 12.1% | -2.0% | -0.22 | S | Same trip | — |
| 4 | ALTER THE STARS | 7.0 | 10.5% | 8.0% | -2.5% | -0.70 | C | Same trip | — |
| 2 | X GENE | 10.0 | 7.7% | 8.0% | +0.3% | 0.53 | S | Same trip | — |
| 6 | SUGAR BRITCHES | 15.0 | 5.3% | 3.9% | -1.4% | -0.85 | P | Rising figsLed last | — |