BTP R2 · 2026-10-02
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find BTP R2 · 2026-10-02 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#1 vs #2)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1MY TROOPEREP
- C2#2RUN BOBBY RUNEP
- C3#3KOZY KC
- C4#5GLOBAL EVENTC
- C5#4GUESS AGAINS
Honest pace among #1 MY TROOPER and #2 RUN BOBBY RUN. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 GUESS AGAIN · hurts #1 MY TROOPER, #2 RUN BOBBY RUN
Pressure: #1 MY TROOPER and #2 RUN BOBBY RUN hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 GUESS AGAIN · hurts #1 MY TROOPER, #2 RUN BOBBY RUN
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 KOZY K, #5 GLOBAL EVENT, #4 GUESS AGAIN).
Helps #3 KOZY K, #5 GLOBAL EVENT, #4 GUESS AGAIN · hurts #1 MY TROOPER, #2 RUN BOBBY RUN
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MY TROOPERCORREA YARMARIE L | 1.8 | EP | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip2026-09-12 BTP 3f 38.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-09-02 BTP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 9/9 · barn: same as last | sAlw22700n3l → Alw 22700n3l | SMITH LARRY | Favorite |
| 2 | RUN BOBBY RUNRODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO | 2.0 | EP | Rising figsSame trip2026-01-14 MVR 5f 61.80 B MT gd bullet 1/8; 2025-12-13 MVR 4f 50.00 B MT gd 7/33 · barn: same as last | sAlw35800n2l → Alw 22700n3l | CLINE ROBERT C | Favorite |
| 5 | GLOBAL EVENTSOSA LAUREANO | 2.5 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-11 BTP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-07-27 TDN 4f 49.80 B MT ft 5/16 · barn: same as last | sAlw22700n3l → Alw 22700n3l | HAMM TIMOTHY | Favorite |
| 3 | KOZY KPAULY SUMMER | 6.0 | C | —2026-06-30 BTP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 10/11; 2026-06-20 BTP 4f 51.40 B MT ft 25/28 · barn: same as last | sAlw22700n3l → Alw 22700n3l | SMITH LARRY | field |
| 4 | GUESS AGAINSTOKES J | 10.0 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-12 BTP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 17/30; 2026-08-27 BTP 4f 49.40 B MT ft 5/7 · barn: same as last | sAlw22700n3l → Alw 22700n3l | HAMM TIMOTHY | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEBTP R2 · 2026-10-02 · Dirt 1760y · Alw 22700n3l
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#1 vs #2 both EP); pace collapse likely; benefits stalker/closer — inside rail and speed bias partially offset duel damage
- CHALKFavorite#1 MY TROOPER · solid but short · best fig, top LP, 2nd off layoff, inside post, rises to route after sprint; legitimately the best horse but 9-5 ML is no ticket
- LEANWinner call#1 MY TROOPER · best fig (75), top late pace, 2nd off layoff, inside post — wins if the duel doesn't materialize or if it has enough left after the hook
- PRIMED#4 GUESS AGAIN (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, route-to-route) — path exists in A/B if speed hooks; model signal is sharply negative and figs are thin, so primed on pattern only
- PRICEnone · no non-chalk overlays on the sheet; #4 is primed but model edge is -0.026 and overlay=false
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS · only overlay is the chalk favorite; no qualifying price horse
- KILLSpeed duel fails to materialize — #1 clears unchallenged and the shape argument evaporates; #4's weak figs (54 last, LP 52) become fatal in a non-pace scenario
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, race-day weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt route, allowance n3l, five horses, moderate-to-high volatility with a two-speed duel projected up front. The shape strongly favors the field off the pace — #1 and #2 are both chalk EP types who figure to hook each other, and the inside rail bias at BTP favors early speed yet the duel risk undercuts both of them. #4 GUESS AGAIN carries two ready flags (rising figs, 2nd off layoff) plus same-trip confirmation in a stalker role that benefits in scenarios A and B when the speed empties, though the model signal is deeply negative and the figs are the weakest in the field; there is no non-chalk price overlay on the board.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MY TROOPER | 1.8 | 29.5% | 33.1% | +3.6% | 0.82 | EP | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 2 | RUN BOBBY RUN | 2.0 | 27.5% | 28.0% | +0.5% | 0.43 | EP | favoriteRising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | GLOBAL EVENT | 2.5 | 23.6% | 24.1% | +0.5% | 0.45 | C | favoriteRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 3 | KOZY K | 6.0 | 11.8% | 9.9% | -1.9% | -0.32 | C | — | |
| 4 | GUESS AGAIN | 10.0 | 7.5% | 4.9% | -2.6% | -1.37 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |