FL R1 · 2026-10-06
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R1 · 2026-10-06 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #3 INSTANT SUCCESS
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5SOLO DANCINGP
- C2#4TREW VIOLENCES
- C3#6BOLT TO RUNP
- C4#2NOTFANUTINS
- C5#7IM SOLO N IN LOVEC
- C6#3INSTANT SUCCESSEP
- C7#1GOING HOME NOWC
#3 INSTANT SUCCESS controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #3 INSTANT SUCCESS · hurts #4 TREW VIOLENCE, #2 NOTFANUTIN, #7 IM SOLO N IN LOVE, #1 GOING HOME NOW
Someone presses #3 INSTANT SUCCESS. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #5 SOLO DANCING, #6 BOLT TO RUN, #4 TREW VIOLENCE, #2 NOTFANUTIN · hurts #3 INSTANT SUCCESS
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 TREW VIOLENCE, #2 NOTFANUTIN, #7 IM SOLO N IN LOVE, #1 GOING HOME NOW).
Helps #4 TREW VIOLENCE, #2 NOTFANUTIN, #7 IM SOLO N IN LOVE, #1 GOING HOME NOW · hurts #3 INSTANT SUCCESS
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TREW VIOLENCEPENA LUIS | 2.5 | S | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-28 FL 4f 50.00 B MT my 3/8; 2026-09-16 FL 4f 51.40 B MT ft 22/27 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n2l → Clm 11000n3l | GRABOWSKI JOHN A | Favorite |
| 5 | SOLO DANCINGWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE | 3.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-20 FL 5f 64.00 B MT ft 5/10; 2026-06-16 FL 4f 54.00 B MT ft 31/31 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n3l → Clm 11000n3l | D'ALESSANDRO RALPH | field |
| 7 | IM SOLO N IN LOVECRUZ JOEL | 3.5 | C | Same trip2026-08-25 FL 4f 49.40 B MT ft 3/15; 2026-07-28 FL 4f 46.40 B MT sy bullet 1/13 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n3l → Clm 11000n3l | FERRARO M ANTHONY | field |
| 2 | NOTFANUTINDE DIEGO EMANUEL | 5.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-21 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 9/22; 2026-07-13 FL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 5/17 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n3l → Clm 11000n3l | GUTTERSON KATLYNN | field |
| 3 | INSTANT SUCCESSCOA KEIBER J | 8.0 | EP | Sharp work2026-09-28 FL 5f 62.20 B MT my 1/1; 2026-08-12 FL 4f 48.00 B MT ft 5/36 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n3l → Clm 11000n3l | D'ALESSANDRO RALPH | field |
| 6 | BOLT TO RUNHERNANDEZ O K | 12.0 | P | Rising figsHidden paceClass dropTop last paceSame trip2026-08-26 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft 3/17; 2026-04-08 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | Alw26795n3l → Clm 11000n3l | VASQUEZ RAMON | pace + drop |
| 1 | GOING HOME NOWRUSSELL C | 8.0 | C | 3rd start cycleClass dropSame trip2026-08-12 FL 3f 36.20 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-08-01 FL 5f 62.00 B MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last | fAlw26690n3l → Clm 11000n3l | TURETSKY JUDY E | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R1 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1870y · Clm11000n3l
- SHAPELone speed (#3 INSTANT SUCCESS) on speed/rail bias; stalkers and closers need that speed to fold
- CHALKFavorite#4 TREW VIOLENCE (2.5 ML) · solid — top fig, rising cycle, route-proven; style needs pace
- LEANWinner call#4 TREW VIOLENCE · best figure, rising cycle, handles this trip; chalk
- PRIMED#6 BOLT TO RUN (rising figs, LP 100 hidden pace, class drop ALW→$11k CLM, same trip, 12 ML); #1 GOING HOME NOW (3rd start cycle, class drop, same trip — but figs 59–62 are well below the top group)
- PRICENo non-chalk overlay per brief (model/mkt edge for all non-chalk horses is flat or negative)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk horse clears the overlay threshold; #6 is structurally interesting at 12-1 but trainer stats in routes (0-for-18) and zero model edge make a win ticket unjustifiable
- KILL#3 INSTANT SUCCESS gets loose on the lead and the closers never fire; or live tote compresses #6 below 8-1 and the value disappears
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition day-of, rider changes
Why
Dirt route, claiming (n3l, $11k), seven horses, moderate volatility — small field but a closer-heavy layout on a track that has paid early speed 50% and inside posts 64% of recent winners. #3 INSTANT SUCCESS projects as lone speed from post 3 on a speed/rail-biased strip, giving it a clean shot in Scenario A, but cratering form figs (57 last out, zForm –1.99) and a sprint-to-route pattern make it opposable chalk-adjacent despite the 8-1 ML; the real chalk is #4 TREW VIOLENCE (2.5 ML), a stalker with the top field fig (77), rising cycle, and a legit path in Scenarios B and C, though its style (S from post 4) needs pace to run at. #6 BOLT TO RUN (ML 12) is the most interesting primed price: three-flag stack (rising figs, LP 100 last out, class drop from ALW into $11k claiming), same trip (1830y → 1870y), and a presser style that can sit 2nd or 3rd behind the lone speed in Scenario A — but the trainer (Vasquez) is 0% in routes and the model shows no overlay, so the path is live even if the edge number is flat. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Pace + drop
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TREW VIOLENCE | 2.5 | 23.3% | 27.2% | +3.9% | 0.88 | S | favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 5 | SOLO DANCING | 3.0 | 20.4% | 20.3% | -0.1% | 0.25 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 7 | IM SOLO N IN LOVE | 3.5 | 18.2% | 19.5% | +1.3% | 0.55 | C | Same trip | — |
| 2 | NOTFANUTIN | 5.0 | 13.6% | 14.0% | +0.4% | 0.39 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | INSTANT SUCCESS | 8.0 | 9.1% | 6.7% | -2.4% | -0.95 | EP | Sharp work | — |
| 6 | BOLT TO RUN | 12.0 | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.1% | 0.24 | P | Rising figsHidden paceClass dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | GOING HOME NOW | 8.0 | 9.1% | 6.0% | -3.0% | -1.36 | C | 3rd start cycleClass dropSame trip | — |