KEE R4 · 2026-10-04
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find KEE R4 · 2026-10-04 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5CODE OF ARMSUU
- C2#4DAMAVANDUU
- C3#6BARREL ROLLUU
- C4#15D CS ARMYUU
- C5#7BELZONIS
- C6#10STADIONUU
- C7#14EL GRAN RUCHACHAUU
- C8#1GRANTCHESTERUU
- C9#3HICKORYC
- C10#2JUST A HOLIDAYP
- C11#8BIATHLONUU
- C12#13VERY HAPPYUU
- C13#11PATRIOTS QUESTC
- C14#12JOKES RESERVEC
- C15#9MAGICAL MIKELC
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #2 JUST A HOLIDAY, #7 BELZONI · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #2 JUST A HOLIDAY, #7 BELZONI · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 BELZONI, #3 HICKORY, #11 PATRIOTS QUEST, #12 JOKES RESERVE, #9 MAGICAL MIKEL).
Helps #7 BELZONI, #3 HICKORY, #11 PATRIOTS QUEST, #12 JOKES RESERVE, #9 MAGICAL MIKEL · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BELZONIALVARADO JUNIOR | 4.0 | S | Sharp work2026-09-23 SAR 4f 48.00 B TT ft bullet 1/44; 2026-09-15 SAR 4f 50.20 B TT ft 6/9 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | MOTT WILLIAM I | Favorite |
| 4 | DAMAVANDVELAZQUEZ J R | 5.0 | U | —2026-09-26 SAR 4f 49.20 B TT ft 39/133; 2026-09-19 SAR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 40/55 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | PLETCHER TODD A | field |
| 2 | JUST A HOLIDAYORTIZ IRAD JR | 6.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSharp workTop last fig2026-09-27 KEE 5f 62.60 B MT ft 7/10; 2026-09-21 KEE 5f 60.20 B MT ft bullet 1/8 · barn: same as last | JuvSprntL750k → Md Sp Wt | WARD WESLEY A | primed |
| 15 | D CS ARMYESQUIVEL EMMANUEL | 6.0 | U | —2026-09-26 SAR 4f 50.20 B TT ft 104/133; 2026-09-19 SAR 4f 49.80 B TT ft 45/76 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | MCPEEK KENNETH G | field |
| 9 | MAGICAL MIKELLOVEBERRY JARETH | 6.0 | C | Rising figs2026-09-25 SAR 4f 49.80 B TT ft 33/73; 2026-09-18 SAR 4f 48.60 B TT ft 5/46 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | MCPEEK KENNETH G | field |
| 1 | GRANTCHESTERHERNANDEZ B J JR | 8.0 | U | —2026-09-26 CD 5f 61.20 B MT ft 24/49; 2026-09-19 CD 4f 50.20 B MT ft 116/139 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | WILKES IAN R | field |
| 11 | PATRIOTS QUESTORTIZ JOSE L | 8.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-27 ELP 4f 49.00 B MT ft 22/68; 2026-09-20 ELP 4f 49.00 B MT ft 10/49 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | CASSE MARK | field |
| 3 | HICKORYGAFFALIONE TYLER | 10.0 | C | Rising figsHidden paceSame trip2026-09-27 ELP 4f 50.80 B MT ft 56/68; 2026-09-20 ELP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 24/49 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | DEVAUX CHERIE | primed |
| 5 | CODE OF ARMSSAEZ LUIS | 10.0 | U | Trouble lastTop last pace2026-09-16 SAR 5f 61.00 B TT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-09-09 SAR 5f 62.00 B TT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | field |
| 6 | BARREL ROLLPRAT FLAVIEN | 12.0 | U | —2026-09-26 SAR 4f 50.00 B TT ft 91/133; 2026-09-19 SAR 4f 47.60 B MT ft 2/55 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | BROWN CHAD C | field |
| 8 | BIATHLONGUTIERREZ MARIO | 15.0 | U | —2026-09-24 KEE 4f 49.20 B MT ft 9/15; 2026-09-18 KEE 4f 49.40 B MT ft 18/22 · barn: same as last | Alw250000b → Md Sp Wt | OLIVER VICTORIA | field |
| 12 | JOKES RESERVECONCEPCION AXEL | 20.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-26 TTC 5f 62.80 B MT ft 2/9; 2026-09-18 TTC 5f 62.40 B MT ft 6/13 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | CARAMORI CAIO | field |
| 10 | STADIONARRIETA FRANCISCO | 30.0 | U | —2026-09-27 ELP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 61/68; 2026-09-19 ELP 5f 60.80 Hg MT ft 4/14 · barn: MILLIGAN CAMERON (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | MILLIGAN CAMERON | field |
| 14 | EL GRAN RUCHACHAMEEKS MICAH | 30.0 | U | —2026-09-19 DTT 4f 49.20 Bg MT gd bullet 1/5; 2026-09-14 DTT 5f 63.80 B MT gd 2/2 · barn: SALVADOR DEIVYS (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SALVADOR DEIVYS | field |
| 13 | VERY HAPPYGRAHAM J | 30.0 | U | —2026-09-26 TTC 4f 51.00 B MT ft 28/44; 2026-08-29 TTC 3f 35.80 Bg MT ft 2/31 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | ARANHA JOSE LUIZ | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEKEE R4 · 2026-10-04 · Dirt 1870y Md Sp Wt
- SHAPECrawl likely — no dedicated E; stalkers/pressers control; closers lack a target in A
- CHALKFavorite#7 BELZONI · short/usable · best signal + Mott bullet works, but 4-1 is not a price
- LEANWinner call#2 JUST A HOLIDAY · top fig (85), 2nd off layoff, rising figs, KEE bullet, Irad — fits the crawl map pressing from post 2
- PRIMED#2 JUST A HOLIDAY (rising_figs + second_off_layoff + sharp_work + top_last_fig); #3 HICKORY (rising_figs + hidden_pace — LP 86, fin 5 — same trip, 10-1)
- PRICEno non-chalk overlays (model shows edge=false on all non-chalk horses; no price clears the bar)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — sheet rec PASS; no non-chalk overlay; #2 is primed but overlay=false at ML 6
- KILL#7 fires to the front and wire-to-wires a crawl; #2's pace figure (zPace -1.37) suggests distance/pace doubt on a two-turn route stretching out first time
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, track bias (no KEE meet sample), weather/off-turf flag, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Fifteen-horse 2YO maiden special weight at 1870y on Keeneland dirt is a wide-open two-turn route with high volatility and no dedicated early pace. The pace map projects a crawl/tactical scenario that suits pressers and stalkers — chalk #7 BELZONI (ML 4, Mott, SAR bullet) is the lone horse with a clean stalking style and the best overall signal, though his Sept-5 route end was a weakening fifth after a duel; primed #2 JUST A HOLIDAY owns the top last figure (85), is 2nd off layoff, rising figs, bullet works at KEE, and sits inside with Irad aboard, giving him a press-and-clear path if the field crawls — that stacks three ready flags with a direct pace path in Scenario A. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BELZONI | 4.0 | 13.5% | 15.4% | +1.9% | 0.71 | S | favoriteSharp work | — |
| 4 | DAMAVAND | 5.0 | 11.2% | 12.4% | +1.2% | 0.58 | U | — | |
| 2 | JUST A HOLIDAY | 6.0 | 9.6% | 10.6% | +0.9% | 0.55 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSharp workTop last fig | — |
| 15 | D CS ARMY | 6.0 | 9.6% | 10.2% | +0.6% | 0.41 | U | — | |
| 9 | MAGICAL MIKEL | 6.0 | 9.6% | 8.3% | -1.3% | -0.41 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 1 | GRANTCHESTER | 8.0 | 7.5% | 7.0% | -0.5% | -0.09 | U | — | |
| 11 | PATRIOTS QUEST | 8.0 | 7.5% | 6.5% | -1.0% | -0.37 | C | Same trip | — |
| 3 | HICKORY | 10.0 | 6.1% | 6.4% | +0.2% | 0.33 | C | Rising figsHidden paceSame trip | — |
| 5 | CODE OF ARMS | 10.0 | 6.1% | 5.7% | -0.4% | -0.10 | U | Trouble lastTop last pace | — |
| 6 | BARREL ROLL | 12.0 | 5.2% | 4.5% | -0.7% | -0.43 | U | — | |
| 8 | BIATHLON | 15.0 | 4.2% | 4.0% | -0.2% | -0.07 | U | — | |
| 12 | JOKES RESERVE | 20.0 | 3.2% | 3.3% | +0.1% | 0.31 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 10 | STADION | 30.0 | 2.2% | 2.1% | -0.1% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 14 | EL GRAN RUCHACHA | 30.0 | 2.2% | 2.1% | -0.1% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 13 | VERY HAPPY | 30.0 | 2.2% | 1.5% | -0.7% | -1.42 | U | — |