TDN R8 · 2026-09-28

PASSD1760y2 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #1)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#2MOREAUEP
C2#1WE NEED A FAVORE
C3#7RHYTHM N BLUESP
C4#5SWEET AS SINP
C5#3CAPO LUCAS
C6#6TIMESATAPPINC
C7#4ALEMANP

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #2 MOREAU and #1 WE NEED A FAVOR. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #7 RHYTHM N BLUES, #5 SWEET AS SIN, #4 ALEMAN, #3 CAPO LUCA · hurts #2 MOREAU, #1 WE NEED A FAVOR

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #2 MOREAU and #1 WE NEED A FAVOR hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #7 RHYTHM N BLUES, #5 SWEET AS SIN, #4 ALEMAN, #3 CAPO LUCA · hurts #2 MOREAU, #1 WE NEED A FAVOR

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 CAPO LUCA, #6 TIMESATAPPIN).

Helps #3 CAPO LUCA, #6 TIMESATAPPIN · hurts #2 MOREAU, #1 WE NEED A FAVOR

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
7	RHYTHM N BLUESCHAVEZ ALEXANDER	2.0	P	Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-06-21 LRL 4f 49.60 B MT ft 36/91; 2026-05-31 LRL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 21/79 · barn: same as last	Alw32500nc → Alw 32500nc	VECCHIO CARYN	Favorite
2	MOREAUBRACHO JOSE A	2.5	EP	Same trip2026-07-22 TDN 4f 51.00 B MT my 7/9; 2026-04-23 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/21 · barn: same as last	Alw32500nc → Alw 32500nc	RADOSEVICH JEFF	Favorite
5	SWEET AS SINRIVERA L R	3.5	P	Barn changeSame trip2026-07-21 TDN 5f 64.20 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-07-09 TDN 5f 61.60 B MT ft 3/8 · barn: change vs PUHL KIM	Clm25000c → Alw 32500nc	ZIELINSKI RICHARD	field
3	CAPO LUCAGONZALEZ L A	5.0	S	Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-21 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 13/21; 2026-07-30 TDN 5f 62.60 B MT gd 9/12 · barn: same as last	Alw32500nc → Alw 32500nc	PUHL KIM	primed
1	WE NEED A FAVORCORRALES GERARDO	8.0	E	Led lastSame trip2026-04-23 TDN 5f 60.20 B MT ft 2/13; 2026-01-13 OP 5f 61.60 B MT ft 5/10 · barn: same as last	Alw32500nc → Alw 32500nc	PUHL KIM	field
4	ALEMANGONZALEZ SANTIAGO	10.0	P	Same trip2026-07-16 TP 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-06-23 TP 5f 61.00 B MT ft 3/14 · barn: same as last	OC40000n2x → Alw 32500nc	JARVIS KATHY	field
6	TIMESATAPPINSIMPSON JASON	20.0	C	Rising figs3rd start cycleHidden pace2026-08-03 TDN 5f 65.60 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-07-23 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT ft 13/28 · barn: same as last	Clm25000 → Alw 32500nc	LOUDIN-SMITH LORI	primed

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACETDN R8 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1760y · Alw32500nc
SHAPETwo-speed duel (#1 vs #2) sets up stalkers; speed bias/inside rail favors #7 from post 7 but it sits patient — honest pace scenario
CHALKFavorite#7 RHYTHM N BLUES (2-1) · solid · top fig 93, top LP, route-to-route, pace path in A and B; #2 MOREAU (2.5-1) · short · fig step back last, EP that gets hooked
LEANWinner call#7 RHYTHM N BLUES · best fig, best LP, route prep, clean stalking trip in both A and B
PRIMED#3 CAPO LUCA (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, inside post, stalker path in A/B) · #6 TIMESATAPPIN (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, hidden pace LP 89, but sprint-to-route, C-only path)
PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay clears the model
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILL#2 MOREAU clears clean without a hook and wire-to-wires at 2.5-1; track bias goes against outside post 7; live tote shortens #7 further
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt route allowance at TDN, seven horses, moderate-to-high volatility with two chalk co-favorites and a speed duel baked into the shape.

Shape is a two-speed hook between #2 MOREAU (EP, post 2) and #1 WE NEED A FAVOR (E, post 1) that sets up the stalkers, with #7 RHYTHM N BLUES (P, top fig 93, top LP) sitting ideally in the pocket as the short chalk at 2-1.

#3 CAPO LUCA is primed (rising figs 84→86, third start of cycle, same route trip, post 3 inside) and has a stalker path in A/B, though the 5-1 morning line is still no overlay per the model.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#3 CAPO LUCAML 5.0Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip

#6 TIMESATAPPINML 20.0Rising figs3rd start cycleHidden pace

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
7	RHYTHM N BLUES	2.0	26.5%	31.9%	+5.4%	1.20	P	favoriteRising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip	—
2	MOREAU	2.5	22.7%	24.0%	+1.3%	0.69	EP	favoriteSame trip	—
5	SWEET AS SIN	3.5	17.7%	15.9%	-1.8%	0.04	P	Barn changeSame trip	—
3	CAPO LUCA	5.0	13.3%	12.9%	-0.3%	0.36	S	Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip	—
1	WE NEED A FAVOR	8.0	8.8%	8.0%	-0.9%	0.06	E	Led lastSame trip	—
4	ALEMAN	10.0	7.2%	4.9%	-2.3%	-1.09	P	Same trip	—
6	TIMESATAPPIN	20.0	3.8%	2.5%	-1.3%	-1.27	C	Rising figs3rd start cycleHidden pace	—