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MNR R5 · 2026-09-28

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#1 vs #6)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#1MARKET OF STOCKSEP
  2. C2#5HARLANS LEGACYC
  3. C3#6SUFFERIN SUCCOTASHEP
  4. C4#3TATOR MADEC
  5. C5#7AMALFI LADYS
  6. C6#4WILD LOOKERC
  7. C7#2TEAM HOT LINES
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #1 MARKET OF STOCKS and #6 SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #7 AMALFI LADY, #2 TEAM HOT LINE · hurts #1 MARKET OF STOCKS, #6 SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #1 MARKET OF STOCKS and #6 SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #7 AMALFI LADY, #2 TEAM HOT LINE · hurts #1 MARKET OF STOCKS, #6 SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 HARLANS LEGACY, #3 TATOR MADE, #7 AMALFI LADY, #4 WILD LOOKER, #2 TEAM HOT LINE).

Helps #5 HARLANS LEGACY, #3 TATOR MADE, #7 AMALFI LADY, #4 WILD LOOKER, #2 TEAM HOT LINE · hurts #1 MARKET OF STOCKS, #6 SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
1MARKET OF STOCKSYARANGA Y2.0EPRising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip2026-06-08 BTP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-06-02 BTP 3f 36.80 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as lastfClm5000b → Clm 4000n1xRODAK GERALDINEFavorite
3TATOR MADEGREENIDGE ELIJAH3.0C—2026-05-24 GP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 18/20; 2026-03-03 TAM 5f 63.80 B MT ft 4/4 · barn: same as lastfClm3200n2x → Clm 4000n1xLOPEZ OLMEDA RACHEL LYNNfield
5HARLANS LEGACYWEATHERLY BAILEY3.5CRising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-06-14 MNR 4f 50.80 B MT ft 10/17; 2026-04-28 MNR 4f 49.80 B D MT sl bullet 1/10 · barn: same as lastfClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xBROWN JOHN Toverlay
7AMALFI LADYNEGRON LUIS6.0SRising figsSame trip2026-06-17 MNR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 13/29; 2026-06-09 MNR 4f 52.00 B MT ft 14/18 · barn: same as lastfClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xVAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOSfield
2TEAM HOT LINEGARCIA F8.0SRising figs2nd off layoffTrouble last2026-08-24 MNR 3f 38.00 B MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-05-02 MNR 4f 52.20 B D MT hy 6/10 · barn: same as lastfClm3200n1x → Clm 4000n1xBLANKENSHIP DONALD Tprimed
4WILD LOOKERDIAZ R20.0CTag dropSame trip2026-06-17 MNR 4f 48.60 B MT ft 7/29; 2026-06-03 MNR 4f 51.80 B MT ft 13/16 · barn: same as lastfClm5000 → Clm 4000n1xKRIPLE ZVIfield
6SUFFERIN SUCCOTASHOLIVEROS CHARLE15.0EPTag dropSame trip2026-04-20 MNR 4f 47.60 B MT ft bullet 1/11; 2026-04-13 MNR 4f 53.00 B MT ft 17/19 · barn: same as lastfClm5000 → Clm 4000n1xMARTINEZ TOMASfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY actionAction — tote stamped. Grade vs close after official
  1. RACEMNR R5 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1760y · Clm 4000n1x
  2. SHAPETwo-speed duel risk (#1 vs #6) favors stalkers/closers; inside-rail bias further anchors #1 at post 1 but punishes #6 (post 6) if she fights and fades
  3. CHALKFavorite#1 MARKET OF STOCKS (ML 2) · usable but short · post-1 rail bias helps, class drop is real, but negative model edge and modest 55–58 fig range; not a fade, just no price
  4. LEANWinner call#5 HARLANS LEGACY · top fig in the field at 63, same trip and condition, rising cycle, pace sits mid-pack away from the duel
  5. PRIMED#2 TEAM HOT LINE (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, trouble last) — only path is A/B stalking from post 2; figures (51) lag badly behind the overlay
  6. PRICE#5 HARLANS LEGACY · edge 0.031 · ML 3.5 (min 3-1 to play)
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#5 HARLANS LEGACY · win · min 3-1 (pass if board drops below 3-1)
  8. KILL#6 scratches and #1 clears alone on the lead — lone-speed chalk at this price with the rail is very hard to beat; also kills it if #5 draws wide trouble from post 5 in a speed-favoring first call
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, track condition / weather, rider changes

Why

Dirt route, cheap claiming (4000 n1x), MNR, eight-horse field — moderate-to-high volatility given the dual EP speed and a track that heavily favors inside posts and speed.

Two EP types (#1 MARKET OF STOCKS, post 1, and #6 SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH, post 6) project a duel, though #6 just collapsed to a fig-20 last out and is opposable as a pace threat; #1 is chalk off a class drop with a rails advantage but modest figures and a negative model edge.

#5 HARLANS LEGACY is the lone ingested price overlay — top figure (63) in the field, three consecutive routes at this exact condition, rising-figs flag, and a stalking style (call1-4 last out) that fits the A/B pace scenario if the speed hook softens the front.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#5 HARLANS LEGACY+3.5%ML 3.5Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#2 TEAM HOT LINEML 8.0Rising figs2nd off layoffTrouble last

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
1MARKET OF STOCKS2.028.5%26.8%-1.7%-0.05EPfavoriteRising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip—
3TATOR MADE3.021.4%22.9%+1.5%0.48C—
5HARLANS LEGACY3.519.0%22.5%+3.5%0.88CRising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip—
7AMALFI LADY6.012.2%13.3%+1.1%0.54SRising figsSame trip—
2TEAM HOT LINE8.09.5%7.1%-2.4%-0.95SRising figs2nd off layoffTrouble last—
4WILD LOOKER20.04.1%3.9%-0.2%-0.01CTag dropSame trip—
6SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH15.05.3%3.5%-1.9%-1.54EPTag dropSame trip—