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MNR R4 · 2026-09-29

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#7 #5 #6 #2)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#7CLOUD STORAGEEP
  2. C2#5REDWHITEANDTACOSE
  3. C3#6GOLDCRESTEP
  4. C4#1TUENDAS
  5. C5#4CANADIAN BEARP
  6. C6#2LIBERTY BELLEEP
  7. C7#3MAVILUSC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #7 CLOUD STORAGE and #5 REDWHITEANDTACOS and #6 GOLDCREST and #2 LIBERTY BELLE. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #4 CANADIAN BEAR, #1 TUENDA · hurts #7 CLOUD STORAGE, #5 REDWHITEANDTACOS, #6 GOLDCREST, #2 LIBERTY BELLE

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #7 CLOUD STORAGE and #5 REDWHITEANDTACOS and #6 GOLDCREST and #2 LIBERTY BELLE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #4 CANADIAN BEAR, #1 TUENDA · hurts #7 CLOUD STORAGE, #5 REDWHITEANDTACOS, #6 GOLDCREST, #2 LIBERTY BELLE

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 TUENDA, #3 MAVILUS).

Helps #1 TUENDA, #3 MAVILUS · hurts #7 CLOUD STORAGE, #5 REDWHITEANDTACOS, #6 GOLDCREST, #2 LIBERTY BELLE

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
1TUENDABATISTA LUIS ALBERTO3.0SRising figsClass dropTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-04-11 TP 4f 50.80 B MT ft 80/91; 2026-03-20 TP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 35/42 · barn: same as lastfAlw4000s → OClm 12500ANDRADE HUGOpace + drop
7CLOUD STORAGEFELICIANO R2.5EPClass dropSharp workSame trip2026-09-19 TDN 5f 60.60 B MT ft 1/3; 2025-12-23 TAM 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/29 · barn: same as lastfAlw31700n2x → OClm 12500FELICIANO BENNY RFavorite
3MAVILUSHO WESLEY3.5CSame trip2026-09-10 CT 5f 64.20 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-08-26 CT 4f 47.80 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as lastfOC30000 → OClm 12500JONES MICHAEL E JRfield
4CANADIAN BEARBOWEN ROCCO4.5PRising figsTag drop2025-12-24 LRL 4f 50.40 B MT ft 18/34; 2025-08-23 LRL 4f 50.80 B MT ft 33/46 · barn: same as lastfClm20000 → OClm 12500BERNARDINI JAY Pfield
6GOLDCRESTNEGRON LUIS8.0EPSame trip2026-05-03 PRX 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-03-06 PRX 3f 36.60 B MT sy 1/1 · barn: same as lastfOC10000 → OClm 12500VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOSfield
5REDWHITEANDTACOSTAPARA BRANDON15.0E3rd start cycleSame trip2025-03-10 MVR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/21; 2024-04-24 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 8/21 · barn: same as lastfOC15000n1x → OClm 12500BERNARDINI JAY Pfield
2LIBERTY BELLECHAVEZ ALEXANDER10.0EPSame trip2026-09-01 TDN 6f 76.80 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-07-23 TDN 4f 51.00 B MT ft 17/28 · barn: same as lastfOC13500 → OClm 12500WINTERS MICHELLEfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACEMNR R4 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1760y OClm 12500
  2. SHAPEWall of pressers (#7 #5 #6 #2) sets up a pace meltdown; stalker/closer path live in A and B
  3. CHALKFavorite#7 CLOUD STORAGE 2.5 · opposable · weak figs, outside post, route form in a higher class, negative edge
  4. LEANWinner call#1 TUENDA · rising figs, field-top pace, class drop, inside rail bias, path in A and B
  5. PRIMED#1 TUENDA (rising_figs, class_drop, top_last_fig, top_last_pace, same_trip — 5 flags)
  6. PRICE#1 TUENDA edge 0.062 at ML 3
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#1 TUENDA · win · minimum 3-1 (pass if board drops below 3-1)
  8. KILLChalk exits cleanly from post 7 and converts route pace into a solo lead before the first turn; any scratch that thins the speed wall and gifts #7 a soft trip
  9. MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, track condition update, rider changes

Why

Dirt route, open claiming 12500 at MNR, seven horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early/presser speed and a sharp class drop in the field.

Four horses (#7, #5, #6, #2) project to the front in a pressure-extreme shape that sets up the stalkers and closers, with chalk #7 CLOUD STORAGE posting the worst speed figures in the field and shipping from a higher-class sprint without a route fig that competes here.

#1 TUENDA drops from restricted allowance into this claimer with five flags (rising figs 76→79→81, field-top last fig, field-top last pace, class drop, same trip), sits post 1 where the bias favors inside runners, and stalks a pace that is designed to set up exactly this style.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Pace + drop

#1 TUENDAANDRADE HUGOpace + dropML 3.0Rising figsClass dropTop last figTop last paceSame trip

Price overlays

#1 TUENDA+6.2%ML 3.0Rising figsClass dropTop last figTop last paceSame trip
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Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
1TUENDA3.020.8%27.0%+6.2%1.32SRising figsClass dropTop last figTop last paceSame trip—
7CLOUD STORAGE2.523.7%22.4%-1.3%0.04EPfavoriteClass dropSharp workSame trip—
3MAVILUS3.518.5%16.5%-2.0%-0.18CSame trip—
4CANADIAN BEAR4.515.1%15.1%+0.0%0.28PRising figsTag drop—
6GOLDCREST8.09.2%9.9%+0.6%0.54EPSame trip—
5REDWHITEANDTACOS15.05.2%4.6%-0.6%-0.21E3rd start cycleSame trip—
2LIBERTY BELLE10.07.5%4.5%-3.0%-1.79EPSame trip—