SA R3 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #2 A GREAT SHAKING
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2A GREAT SHAKINGEP
- C2#3CLUBHOUSE BRIDEP
- C3#10RYANS GIRLP
- C4#9MAGGLES MCGEES
- C5#5MENDELSSOHNS ANGELS
- C6#7BESSIE COLEMANS
- C7#8NELLS LEGACYC
- C8#1WHOPPER FACTORC
- C9#4TROISIEME ETOILEC
- C10#6WILD WEST COASTC
#2 A GREAT SHAKING controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #2 A GREAT SHAKING · hurts #9 MAGGLES MCGEE, #5 MENDELSSOHNS ANGEL, #7 BESSIE COLEMAN, #8 NELLS LEGACY, #1 WHOPPER FACTOR, #4 TROISIEME ETOILE, #6 WILD WEST COAST
Someone presses #2 A GREAT SHAKING. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #3 CLUBHOUSE BRIDE, #10 RYANS GIRL, #9 MAGGLES MCGEE, #5 MENDELSSOHNS ANGEL, #7 BESSIE COLEMAN · hurts #2 A GREAT SHAKING
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#9 MAGGLES MCGEE, #5 MENDELSSOHNS ANGEL, #7 BESSIE COLEMAN, #8 NELLS LEGACY, #1 WHOPPER FACTOR, #4 TROISIEME ETOILE, #6 WILD WEST COAST).
Helps #9 MAGGLES MCGEE, #5 MENDELSSOHNS ANGEL, #7 BESSIE COLEMAN, #8 NELLS LEGACY, #1 WHOPPER FACTOR, #4 TROISIEME ETOILE, #6 WILD WEST COAST · hurts #2 A GREAT SHAKING
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | WILD WEST COASTKIMURA KAZUSHI | 1.8 | C | —2026-10-03 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 9/12; 2026-09-26 SA 4f 48.80 H MT ft 9/12 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | DRYSDALE NEIL | Favorite |
| 9 | MAGGLES MCGEERISPOLI UMBERTO | 3.0 | S | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 26/71; 2026-09-26 SA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 30/74 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → OClm 20000n1x | PAPAPRODROMOU GEORGE | overlay |
| 3 | CLUBHOUSE BRIDEGONZALEZ RICARDO | 6.0 | P | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-10-03 SA 4f 49.00 H MT ft 42/64; 2026-09-24 SA 4f 50.00 H MT ft 18/26 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | MATHIS ANDY | field |
| 4 | TROISIEME ETOILEJARAMILLO E | 6.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-01 SA 4f 49.00 H MT ft 16/37; 2026-08-13 DMR 4f 47.60 H MT ft 5/47 · barn: same as last | fBTaylorB100k → OClm 20000n1x | O'NEILL DOUG | field |
| 5 | MENDELSSOHNS ANGELHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 12.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-10-02 SA 4f 48.60 Hg MT ft 21/48; 2026-09-25 SA 5f 61.00 H MT ft 19/49 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | GALVIN BRENDAN W | field |
| 2 | A GREAT SHAKINGESCOBEDO ADRIAN | 10.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-03 SA 4f 50.80 H MT ft 59/64; 2026-09-25 SA 4f 47.80 H MT ft 4/43 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | HANSON RYAN | field |
| 10 | RYANS GIRLPEREIRA TIAGO | 15.0 | P | 2nd off layoffClass dropSame trip2026-10-02 LA 4f 47.40 H MT ft 3/17; 2026-09-11 LA 4f 50.00 H MT ft 11/18 · barn: same as last | fAlw10000s → OClm 20000n1x | VALLEJO GENARO | primed |
| 7 | BESSIE COLEMANFREY KYLE | 20.0 | S | Same trip2026-10-05 SA 4f 49.60 Hg MT ft 45/57; 2026-09-28 SA 4f 50.80 Hg MT ft 52/54 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | MIYADI STEVEN | field |
| 8 | NELLS LEGACYAYUSO ARMANDO | 20.0 | C | Rising figsClass dropSame trip2026-10-03 SLR 5f 60.60 H MT ft 9/25; 2026-09-26 SLR 5f 59.40 H MT ft 2/29 · barn: same as last | fsAlw72500n1x → OClm 20000n1x | DAMATO PHILIP | primed |
| 1 | WHOPPER FACTORBAZE T C | 20.0 | C | Trouble lastHidden paceSharp workSame trip2026-10-03 SLR 5f 59.60 H MT ft 2/25; 2026-09-26 SLR 5f 58.40 H MT ft bullet 1/29 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | MEIER MONTY R | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R3 · 2026-10-10 · T 1320y · OClm 20000n1x
- SHAPELone speed (#2 A GREAT SHAKING EP) with no true presser — Scenario A favors the front; chalk is a deep closer with a punishing pace figure against this shape
- CHALKFavorite#6 WILD WEST COAST · fade · style C, worst projected first-call position, zPace -2.54, needs a melt that Scenario A never delivers, works unremarkable
- LEANWinner call#9 MAGGLES MCGEE · rising figs (84 over 78), top e1 in the field (98), proven turf sprint winner, has a stalking path in A and benefits in B
- PRIMED#1 WHOPPER FACTOR (trouble last + hidden pace LP 88 + bullet work); #8 NELLS LEGACY (rising figs +12, sharp class drop from Alw72500); #10 RYANS GIRL (2nd off layoff + class drop, though dirt-to-turf barn stats are thin)
- PRICE#9 MAGGLES MCGEE edge 0.024 at ML 3-1 — model's only printed overlay; no other non-chalk overlay clears the bar
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #9 MAGGLES MCGEE is the only overlay, ML 3-1 is borderline chalk territory for a win ticket, and the model edge (0.024) is slim; no second non-chalk overlay to anchor the play
- KILLLone speed #2 A GREAT SHAKING gets pressed and survives (collapses the closer narrative); off-turf call voids the entire shape read; late scratch of #2 reshuffles everything
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/going condition at post time, rider changes
Why
Turf sprint at SA with a field of ten OC/claiming mares, surface-matched with known form — moderate volatility given the lone-speed shape and a deep closer cluster fighting for the same late ground. #2 A GREAT SHAKING has the cleanest lead on a pace map that shows no true presser, making Scenario A the default and a heavy chalk (#6 WILD WEST COAST, 9-5 ML) sitting last at the projected first call with a negative pace figure (-2.54 zPace) — opposable on shape alone. #1 WHOPPER FACTOR is the most interesting primed price: trouble last (squeezed, inside, 5th while posting LP 88), hidden pace that the chart position buried, a bullet work at SLR 1/29, and a clean path from post 1 if the lone speed gets a soft lead — that means Scenario B flips in her favor if anyone presses, and even in A she can pick through late.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | WILD WEST COAST | 1.8 | 28.2% | 26.7% | -1.6% | -0.11 | C | favorite | — |
| 9 | MAGGLES MCGEE | 3.0 | 19.7% | 22.2% | +2.4% | 0.58 | S | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | CLUBHOUSE BRIDE | 6.0 | 11.3% | 12.8% | +1.5% | 0.63 | P | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 4 | TROISIEME ETOILE | 6.0 | 11.3% | 9.7% | -1.6% | -0.48 | C | Same trip | — |
| 5 | MENDELSSOHNS ANGEL | 12.0 | 6.1% | 6.9% | +0.8% | 0.60 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 2 | A GREAT SHAKING | 10.0 | 7.2% | 6.8% | -0.3% | -0.08 | EP | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 10 | RYANS GIRL | 15.0 | 4.9% | 5.0% | +0.1% | 0.19 | P | 2nd off layoffClass dropSame trip | — |
| 7 | BESSIE COLEMAN | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.7% | -0.0% | 0.08 | S | Same trip | — |
| 8 | NELLS LEGACY | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.2% | -0.6% | -0.55 | C | Rising figsClass dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | WHOPPER FACTOR | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.0% | -0.8% | -0.85 | C | Trouble lastHidden paceSharp workSame trip | — |