PID R3 · 2026-09-28
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find PID R3 · 2026-09-28 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6LA CREMAP
- C2#5COCKTAIL KISSESS
- C3#3TOUR JETEC
- C4#2LOVE HER LOTSC
- C5#4TACO CAT BACKWARDSS
- C6#1ITS SATISFACTUALS
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #6 LA CREMA, #5 COCKTAIL KISSES, #4 TACO CAT BACKWARDS, #1 ITS SATISFACTUAL · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #6 LA CREMA, #5 COCKTAIL KISSES, #4 TACO CAT BACKWARDS, #1 ITS SATISFACTUAL · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 COCKTAIL KISSES, #3 TOUR JETE, #2 LOVE HER LOTS, #4 TACO CAT BACKWARDS, #1 ITS SATISFACTUAL).
Helps #5 COCKTAIL KISSES, #3 TOUR JETE, #2 LOVE HER LOTS, #4 TACO CAT BACKWARDS, #1 ITS SATISFACTUAL · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | COCKTAIL KISSESKINGSLEY TAYLOR | 2.5 | S | Class dropSame trip2026-09-22 PID 4f 50.00 B MT ft 6/8; 2026-09-17 PID 5f 61.20 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as last | fAlw32670n1x → Clm 8500 | KINTZ S MATTHEW | Favorite |
| 3 | TOUR JETEGALLARDO ANTONIO A | 4.0 | C | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-21 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft 5/15; 2026-07-15 BEL 4f 50.80 B TT ft 31/37 · barn: same as last | fClm13500 → Clm 8500 | STOKES LANCE | overlay |
| 2 | LOVE HER LOTSSPIETH S | 4.5 | C | Hidden paceTag dropTop last paceSame trip2026-08-20 PID 4f 47.20 B MT ft 2/15; 2026-07-22 PID 5f 59.80 B MT ft bullet 1/8 · barn: same as last | fClm13500 → Clm 8500 | KINTZ S MATTHEW | field |
| 4 | TACO CAT BACKWARDSROJAS MARTINA | 3.5 | S | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-19 FAI 4f 49.20 B TT ft 1/3; 2026-08-05 FAI 4f 48.80 B TT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last | fClm12500b → Clm 8500 | MEYERS MADISON F | field |
| 6 | LA CREMAMARTINEZ GADDIEL A | 6.0 | P | Class drop2026-09-23 PID 4f 49.80 B MT ft 7/8; 2026-05-29 PID 5f 62.80 B MT ft 12/13 · barn: same as last | fAlw32920n1x → Clm 8500 | BONDAR ELENA | field |
| 1 | ITS SATISFACTUALPRUITT CIERA | 10.0 | S | Same trip2026-08-06 PID 5f 62.80 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-07-01 PID 3f 36.20 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last | fClm6250b → Clm 8500 | SPANABEL KELLY R | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEPID R3 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1830y · Clm 8500
- SHAPENo dedicated early; lone presser #6 sets crawl; stalkers and closers need a target that may not materialize — pace moderate, inside bias favors lower posts
- CHALKFavorite#5 COCKTAIL KISSES · solid · class-drop from fAlw N1X with top model edge, consistent route figures (71–75), but 2.5 ML is not a ticket
- LEANWinner call#5 COCKTAIL KISSES · best figure package, real class drop, pace path in A and B
- PRIMEDnone (no horse clears 2+ flags)
- PRICE#3 TOUR JETE 4-1 ML · edge 0.035 · signal 0.93 — only non-chalk overlay; needs a clean closer trip in a field that may not generate honest fractions
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — only overlay is #3 at a thin edge with a crawl map that suits closers poorly; chalk is the rightful LEAN but not a price; no confident ticket
- KILLAny horse showing live early speed scrambles the crawl map and buries the closer path entirely; #3 last two dirt route efforts flat (fn 5, "no menace"); 2nd-after-claim stats are a red flag
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt route at PID, $8,500 claiming, six-horse field — moderate volatility with a soft class drop from the chalk and a pace map showing no dedicated early speed. Shape is a crawl scenario where the lone presser (#6 LA CREMA) sits on the front end by default, advantaging stalkers and pressers over pure closers; chalk #5 COCKTAIL KISSES is a short 2.5 ML dropping from N1X allowance, solid model edge (0.045), but too short to play. No horse clears the two-flag PRIMED bar; #3 TOUR JETE is the only listed overlay at 4-1 ML, posting a signal of 0.93 and a hidden-pace turf sprint (LP 97, came 7-wide) that doesn't fully translate to this all-weather dirt route, and the 2nd-after-claim ITM of 100% / 0 wins ROI −2.00 is a caution. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | COCKTAIL KISSES | 2.5 | 25.4% | 29.9% | +4.5% | 0.87 | S | favoriteClass dropSame trip | — |
| 3 | TOUR JETE | 4.0 | 17.8% | 21.3% | +3.5% | 0.93 | C | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | LOVE HER LOTS | 4.5 | 16.2% | 16.2% | +0.1% | 0.23 | C | Hidden paceTag dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 4 | TACO CAT BACKWARDS | 3.5 | 19.8% | 15.6% | -4.2% | -0.73 | S | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 6 | LA CREMA | 6.0 | 12.7% | 10.8% | -1.9% | -0.43 | P | Class drop | — |
| 1 | ITS SATISFACTUAL | 10.0 | 8.1% | 6.2% | -1.9% | -0.87 | S | Same trip | — |