TDN R2 · 2026-09-30

WATCHD1320y1 price overlay(s)PLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R2 · 2026-09-30 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#3 vs #2)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#3RUN RED RUNE
C2#2EAGLE NESTEP
C3#1MERGERS
C4#6COLOR BEARERC
C5#7THATS THE WAYC
C6#5HITEC
C7#4MAMAS HOME COOKINGC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #3 RUN RED RUN and #2 EAGLE NEST. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #1 MERGER · hurts #3 RUN RED RUN, #2 EAGLE NEST

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #3 RUN RED RUN and #2 EAGLE NEST hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #1 MERGER · hurts #3 RUN RED RUN, #2 EAGLE NEST

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 MERGER, #6 COLOR BEARER, #7 THATS THE WAY, #5 HITE, #4 MAMAS HOME COOKING).

Helps #1 MERGER, #6 COLOR BEARER, #7 THATS THE WAY, #5 HITE, #4 MAMAS HOME COOKING · hurts #3 RUN RED RUN, #2 EAGLE NEST

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
2	EAGLE NESTBARBARAN ERIK	1.4	EP	Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-06-15 TDN 4f 50.20 B MT wf 1/1; 2026-06-05 TDN 4f 49.20 B MT ft 4/11 · barn: same as last	sClm16000n2x → Clm 16000n2x	IBARRA MARCO	Favorite
7	THATS THE WAYRIVERA L R	2.0	C	—2026-04-25 TDN 4f 51.80 MT wf 11/12; 2026-04-15 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT ft 14/18 · barn: same as last	sClm16000n2x → Clm 16000n2x	RADOSEVICH JEFF	Favorite
3	RUN RED RUNSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO	4.5	E	Rising figsTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-08-20 TDN 4f 49.60 B MT ft 7/23; 2026-04-27 TDN 4f 49.40 B MT ft 18/45 · barn: same as last	sClm50000 → Clm 16000n2x	CLINE ROBERT C	overlay
6	COLOR BEARERSKERRETT JEFFERSON	8.0	C	Same trip2025-04-17 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 7/34; 2025-01-16 MVR 4f 49.80 B MT gd 3/15 · barn: same as last	sClm16000n2x → Clm 16000n2x	SKERRETT JEFFREY	field
5	HITEHALDAR DAVID J	10.0	C	—2026-09-24 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 10/33; 2026-08-29 TDN 5f 66.40 B MT ft 4/4 · barn: same as last	sClm16000n2x → Clm 16000n2x	VAZQUEZ IVAN	field
1	MERGERKEISER CHELSEY	15.0	S	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-24 TDN 3f 37.20 B MT ft 4/16; 2026-05-07 TDN 4f 51.60 B MT wf 20/23 · barn: same as last	sClm7500n4l → Clm 16000n2x	HURLEY MARY L	field
4	MAMAS HOME COOKINGFERNANDEZ VICTOR R	15.0	C	—2026-06-06 BTP 5f 60.60 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-05-27 BTP 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as last	sClm16000b → Clm 16000n2x	CLINE ROBERT C	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACETDN R2 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1320y · Clm16000n2x
SHAPETwo-speed duel risk (#3 vs #2) · inside/speed bias favors the pace · closers from posts 5-7 face uphill task
CHALKFavorite#2 EAGLE NEST · solid-but-short · top fig 73, best signal, top zPace, inside post, trainer fires at this meet; 1.4 ML is unplayable
LEANWinner call#2 EAGLE NEST · best figure, best pace position, inside post in a speed/rail bias, solid favorite
PRIMEDnone (sheet confirms none)
PRICE#3 RUN RED RUN · ML 4.5 · edge 0.029 · rising figs, class drop, top E1 — but it is the pace duel's sacrifice horse; overlay is thin and the path is self-destructive
PLAYPrice ticketPASS — the only overlay is the chalk (#2) or a pace-front horse (#3) that is likeliest to empty in the scenario that helps it; no non-chalk horse has a clean A/B path at a price worth taking
KILLSpeed bias evaporates or #3 wires the field uncontested; live tote shortens EAGLE NEST further confirming no value anywhere
MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt sprint claiming at TDN, moderate-to-high volatility with a small field and a heavy chalk at 1.4.

Two-speed duel (#3 RUN RED RUN E vs #2 EAGLE NEST EP) sets up scenarios A and B as honest-to-pressured pace that helps stalker #1 MERGER, but EAGLE NEST is the dominant ML chalk and figures best if the duel doesn't empty it.

The only non-chalk overlay is #3 RUN RED RUN (edge 0.029, ML 4.5), which holds the top E1 in the field, a real class drop from Clm50000, and rising figs — but it is the horse most likely to burn out in the duel it creates.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#3 RUN RED RUN+2.9%ML 4.5Rising figsTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
2	EAGLE NEST	1.4	33.1%	35.8%	+2.7%	0.63	EP	favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip	—
7	THATS THE WAY	2.0	26.5%	25.5%	-0.9%	0.18	C	favorite	—
3	RUN RED RUN	4.5	14.4%	17.3%	+2.9%	1.05	E	Rising figsTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip	—
6	COLOR BEARER	8.0	8.8%	7.7%	-1.2%	-0.23	C	Same trip	—
5	HITE	10.0	7.2%	5.6%	-1.7%	-0.73	C		—
1	MERGER	15.0	5.0%	4.2%	-0.8%	-0.38	S	Rising figsSame trip	—
4	MAMAS HOME COOKING	15.0	5.0%	4.0%	-0.9%	-0.52	C		—