closebeat
Start free
← RaceDay

FL R6 · 2026-09-28

PASSD1320yPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R6 · 2026-09-28 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Sign in to run

Pace map

No dedicated early — closers need collapse

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#1SHEA D VOTINGP
  2. C2#7IM GUNNAP
  3. C3#3SOLO STREETC
  4. C4#4WAR RUNNERS
  5. C5#8MAXIMUM WARRIORS
  6. C6#2LAST VINTAGES
  7. C7#5SPEIGHTFUL SAMUU
  8. C8#6TEN RUN RULEC
A · Likely — expected flow

No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.

Helps #1 SHEA D VOTING, #7 IM GUNNA, #4 WAR RUNNER, #8 MAXIMUM WARRIOR, #2 LAST VINTAGE · hurts —

B · Pressure — duel / honest

A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.

Helps #1 SHEA D VOTING, #7 IM GUNNA, #4 WAR RUNNER, #8 MAXIMUM WARRIOR, #2 LAST VINTAGE · hurts —

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 SOLO STREET, #4 WAR RUNNER, #8 MAXIMUM WARRIOR, #2 LAST VINTAGE, #6 TEN RUN RULE).

Helps #3 SOLO STREET, #4 WAR RUNNER, #8 MAXIMUM WARRIOR, #2 LAST VINTAGE, #6 TEN RUN RULE · hurts —

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
4WAR RUNNERCRUZ JOEL3.0SRising figsTop last figSame trip2026-07-27 FL 5f 64.40 Bg MT ft 3/4; 2026-07-18 FL 5f 64.40 Bg MT ft 10/11 · barn: same as lastMd5000 → Md 5000ACQUILANO JAMESFavorite
3SOLO STREETNAVARRO KEVIN3.5C3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-08-10 FL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 4/12; 2026-08-01 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 13/26 · barn: same as lastMd11000 → Md 5000BUCKLEY JONATHAN Bfield
7IM GUNNAWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE4.0PSame trip2026-04-13 TUP 4f 49.40 H MT ft 8/11; 2025-12-18 TUP 5f 59.80 H MT ft 6/31 · barn: same as lastMd5000 → Md 5000SMITH TROYfield
1SHEA D VOTINGDAVIS JACQUELINE A4.5PRising figsTag dropSame trip2026-08-19 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 9/32; 2026-07-10 FL 4f 49.40 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: same as lastMd11000 → Md 5000DIXON LINDA Kfield
5SPEIGHTFUL SAMRUSSELL C6.0USame trip2026-09-02 FL 5f 63.00 B MT my 4/6; 2026-08-25 FL 5f 63.20 Bg MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as lastMd5000 → Md 5000FERRARO M ANTHONYfield
8MAXIMUM WARRIORGOMEZ O10.0SRising figsSame trip2026-08-31 FL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 4/7; 2026-07-27 FL 5f 64.40 Bg MT ft 3/4 · barn: same as lastMd5000 → Md 5000ACQUILANO JAMESfield
6TEN RUN RULEDE DIEGO EMANUEL20.0CRising figsSame trip2026-09-04 FL 4f 53.00 Bg MT sy 11/11; 2026-08-29 FL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 20/26 · barn: same as lastMd5000 → Md 5000BROWN GLENROYfield
2LAST VINTAGEVENTURA JOSE20.0S—2026-07-15 FL 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 7/15; 2026-06-30 FL 3f 37.40 B MT ft 4/7 · barn: same as lastMd5000 → Md 5000MAVER EDUARDOfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEFL R6 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1320y · Md5000
  2. SHAPENo early — crawl likely; pressers drift forward; stalkers/closers need collapse that may never come; speed bias favors a type that's absent
  3. CHALKFavorite#4 WAR RUNNER · usable but short (3-1) · top fig and rising, but stalker with no pace to set up the move; bias working against style
  4. LEANWinner call#4 WAR RUNNER · best figure, rising cycle, same trip, top of field
  5. PRIMEDnone
  6. PRICEno price (no non-chalk overlay)
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS
  8. KILLA surprise early type emerges and steals the crawl; WAR RUNNER gets a clean stalking trip at a contested pace in Scenario B — at 3-1 it's still chalk and not a ticket
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition at post, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint maiden claimer at Finger Lakes with no dedicated early speed, a crawl shape, and a shallow Md5000 field — moderate-to-high volatility given the class level and stylistic chaos.

The pace map projects a processional with pressers/stalkers drifting to the front and no true gate-to-wire type; chalk #4 WAR RUNNER owns the top figure (69) and a rising cycle but is a stalker in a race with no pace to stalk into, and the track bias heavily favors early speed that simply isn't here.

No horse clears the PRIMED threshold (chalk carries the rising-figs flag but is ineligible; no non-chalk reaches 2+ signals with a clean pace path).

```
```

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Sign in to stamp the board

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Sign in to stamp a board print

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
4WAR RUNNER3.021.1%24.1%+2.9%0.84SfavoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip—
3SOLO STREET3.518.8%19.2%+0.5%0.42C3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip—
7IM GUNNA4.016.9%17.3%+0.4%0.41PSame trip—
1SHEA D VOTING4.515.4%16.2%+0.8%0.53PRising figsTag dropSame trip—
5SPEIGHTFUL SAM6.012.1%10.1%-1.9%-0.38USame trip—
8MAXIMUM WARRIOR10.07.7%7.0%-0.6%-0.03SRising figsSame trip—
6TEN RUN RULE20.04.0%3.5%-0.5%-0.23CRising figsSame trip—
2LAST VINTAGE20.04.0%2.5%-1.5%-1.55S—