SA R7 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#11 #3 #1)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#11CHISELED IN STONEE
- C2#3POPPIS CHARLIEEP
- C3#1GOLDEN CLUBEP
- C4#5HALO HOWIEUU
- C5#2LITTLE KINGC
- C6#8HAUNTED HOUSEUU
- C7#4SMOKE RIDERC
- C8#9HALLAGREYC
- C9#6BOTTLED IN BONDUU
- C10#7BO DIDDLEYC
- C11#10FUMO GRIGIOC
Honest pace among #11 CHISELED IN STONE and #3 POPPIS CHARLIE and #1 GOLDEN CLUB. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #11 CHISELED IN STONE, #3 POPPIS CHARLIE, #1 GOLDEN CLUB · hurts #11 CHISELED IN STONE, #3 POPPIS CHARLIE, #1 GOLDEN CLUB
Pressure: #11 CHISELED IN STONE and #3 POPPIS CHARLIE and #1 GOLDEN CLUB hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #2 LITTLE KING, #4 SMOKE RIDER, #9 HALLAGREY, #7 BO DIDDLEY, #10 FUMO GRIGIO · hurts #11 CHISELED IN STONE, #3 POPPIS CHARLIE, #1 GOLDEN CLUB
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 LITTLE KING, #4 SMOKE RIDER, #9 HALLAGREY, #7 BO DIDDLEY, #10 FUMO GRIGIO).
Helps #2 LITTLE KING, #4 SMOKE RIDER, #9 HALLAGREY, #7 BO DIDDLEY, #10 FUMO GRIGIO · hurts #11 CHISELED IN STONE, #3 POPPIS CHARLIE, #1 GOLDEN CLUB
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CHISELED IN STONEAYUSO ARMANDO | 2.5 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-09-14 SA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 28/79; 2026-08-21 DMR 4f 47.80 H MT ft 11/80 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | KNAPP STEVE | Favorite |
| 1 | GOLDEN CLUBHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 3.0 | EP | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-20 SA 5f 61.60 H MT ft 44/75; 2026-09-14 SA 4f 48.80 H MT ft 35/79 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | LEWIS CRAIG A | overlay |
| 2 | LITTLE KINGRISPOLI UMBERTO | 5.0 | C | Trouble lastTop last paceSame trip2026-08-30 DMR 4f 47.40 H MT ft 9/95; 2026-08-09 DMR 4f 48.40 H MT ft 33/91 · barn: same as last | sImSmokinB100k → Md Sp Wt | PAPAPRODROMOU GEORGE | field |
| 3 | POPPIS CHARLIEPEREIRA TIAGO | 12.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip2026-09-20 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 11/75; 2026-08-15 DMR 4f 47.60 H MT ft 16/113 · barn: same as last | sMd50000 → Md Sp Wt | BADILLA MANUEL | primed |
| 8 | HAUNTED HOUSEFREY KYLE | 10.0 | U | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-19 SA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 31/98; 2026-09-12 SA 3f 35.60 H MT ft bullet 1/18 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | STUTE GARY | field |
| 5 | HALO HOWIEKIMURA KAZUSHI | 8.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-20 SA 4f 49.00 H MT ft 44/97; 2026-08-30 DMR 4f 47.60 H MT ft 14/95 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | ORDONEZ AGGIE | field |
| 9 | HALLAGREYVAN DYKE DRAYDEN | 15.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-19 SA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 31/98; 2026-09-13 SA 4f 49.00 H MT ft 45/74 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | PUYPE MIKE | field |
| 6 | BOTTLED IN BONDROSARIO JOEL | 12.0 | U | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-21 SA 4f 50.40 Hg MT ft 57/73; 2026-09-16 SA 4f 51.80 H MT ft 14/14 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | GAINES CARLA | field |
| 7 | BO DIDDLEYJARAMILLO E | 15.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-14 DMR 4f 50.00 H MT ft 69/89; 2026-08-07 DMR 3f 38.40 H MT ft 15/18 · barn: same as last | sMd50000 → Md Sp Wt | O'NEILL DOUG | field |
| 10 | FUMO GRIGIOBERRIOS HECTOR ISAAC | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2026-09-12 LA 5f 62.00 H MT ft 3/8; 2026-09-05 LA 4f 46.60 H MT ft bullet 1/21 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | TREECE CHARLES S | field |
| 4 | SMOKE RIDERMONROY FRANCISCO | 30.0 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-20 LA 4f 50.40 H MT ft 15/20; 2026-09-11 LA 4f 53.80 H MT ft 16/18 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | FARIAS ADAN | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R7 · 2026-09-27 · Turf sprint · Md Sp Wt · $65k · field 11
- SHAPEWall of early/pressers (#11 #3 #1) · honest-to-contested pace · stalkers/closers live in B/C
- CHALKFavorite#11 CHISELED IN STONE · ML 2.5 · opposable — post 11 is the worst gate in a turf sprint with traffic; pressured by #3 and #1; led and was nailed in both prior starts; bounce risk off a front-running last
- LEANWinner call#1 GOLDEN CLUB · top last fig (84) in the field, rising from 69, turf-proven, stalked 2-wide and cleared; survives A and B
- PRIMED#3 POPPIS CHARLIE (2nd off layoff, trouble last — but class up from claimer, fig ceiling 69, model edge -0.001; path exists as EP but confidence low)
- PRICE#1 GOLDEN CLUB · ML 3 · model edge +0.045 · non-chalk overlay
- PLAYPrice ticket#1 GOLDEN CLUB · min 5-2 win · if board opens 3-1 or better, ticket; at 2-1 or shorter, PASS
- KILL#11 clears cleanly from the outside and steals a soft lead; turf comes off (surface switch voids form base); #1 draws a wall of traffic from post 1 on a tight first turn
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/going condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Turf sprint maiden at SA, 11-horse field, high volatility from the speed wall and first-turf/surface-switch unknowns. Three early types (#11, #3, #1) project an honest-to-pressured pace, which makes the chalk's lone-speed style fragile and opens the door for stalkers/closers — #1 GOLDEN CLUB is the model's non-chalk overlay at ML 3, carrying the field's top last fig (84) with a rising-figs flag and a clean stalking trip that fits scenarios A and B. #3 POPPIS CHARLIE is the designated primed horse (2nd-off-layoff + trouble last), but its model edge is essentially zero and it steps up in class from a maiden claimer — the pace role as EP is the path, but the fig ceiling (69 last) and negative edge keep it a note, not a ticket. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CHISELED IN STONE | 2.5 | 22.6% | 26.7% | +4.1% | 1.05 | E | favoriteLed lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | GOLDEN CLUB | 3.0 | 19.8% | 24.3% | +4.5% | 1.21 | EP | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 2 | LITTLE KING | 5.0 | 13.2% | 12.0% | -1.2% | 0.01 | C | Trouble lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | POPPIS CHARLIE | 12.0 | 6.1% | 6.0% | -0.1% | 0.31 | EP | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 8 | HAUNTED HOUSE | 10.0 | 7.2% | 5.9% | -1.3% | -0.43 | U | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | HALO HOWIE | 8.0 | 8.8% | 5.9% | -2.9% | -1.24 | U | Same trip | — |
| 9 | HALLAGREY | 15.0 | 4.9% | 5.0% | +0.0% | 0.40 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | BOTTLED IN BOND | 12.0 | 6.1% | 4.6% | -1.5% | -0.77 | U | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 7 | BO DIDDLEY | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.5% | -0.5% | -0.03 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 10 | FUMO GRIGIO | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.8% | -1.0% | -0.85 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 4 | SMOKE RIDER | 30.0 | 2.6% | 2.5% | -0.0% | 0.35 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |