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CT R10 · 2026-10-10

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#10 #1 #8 #9)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#10TICO GRANDEE
  2. C2#1RUM N COKEE
  3. C3#8JUBAS NOTIONE
  4. C4#9RAY OF SUNSHINEE
  5. C5#5BAIL IS DENIEDP
  6. C6#4RUNALDOP
  7. C7#7DORADOS
  8. C8#2CATCH THE HUMORS
  9. C9#6JUBAS HAT TRICKS
  10. C10#3MR DUMBLEDORES
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #10 TICO GRANDE and #1 RUM N COKE and #8 JUBAS NOTION and #9 RAY OF SUNSHINE. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #5 BAIL IS DENIED, #4 RUNALDO, #7 DORADO, #2 CATCH THE HUMOR, #6 JUBAS HAT TRICK, #3 MR DUMBLEDORE · hurts #10 TICO GRANDE, #1 RUM N COKE, #8 JUBAS NOTION, #9 RAY OF SUNSHINE

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #10 TICO GRANDE and #1 RUM N COKE and #8 JUBAS NOTION and #9 RAY OF SUNSHINE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #5 BAIL IS DENIED, #4 RUNALDO, #7 DORADO, #2 CATCH THE HUMOR, #6 JUBAS HAT TRICK, #3 MR DUMBLEDORE · hurts #10 TICO GRANDE, #1 RUM N COKE, #8 JUBAS NOTION, #9 RAY OF SUNSHINE

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 DORADO, #2 CATCH THE HUMOR, #6 JUBAS HAT TRICK, #3 MR DUMBLEDORE).

Helps #7 DORADO, #2 CATCH THE HUMOR, #6 JUBAS HAT TRICK, #3 MR DUMBLEDORE · hurts #10 TICO GRANDE, #1 RUM N COKE, #8 JUBAS NOTION, #9 RAY OF SUNSHINE

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
9RAY OF SUNSHINELATCHMAN RESHAWN1.8ELed lastSame trip2026-08-19 CT 5f 63.60 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-07-20 CT 4f 48.40 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as lastOC25000b → WVOnJcBCl75kMURDOCK STEPHENFavorite
10TICO GRANDERODRIGUEZ V4.0ERising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-08-19 CT 4f 47.00 B MT ft 2/15; 2026-06-25 CT 4f 45.00 Bg MT ft bullet 1/11 · barn: same as lastsOC20000b → WVOnJcBCl75kANDERSON PATRICIA Roverlay
2CATCH THE HUMORBOCACHICA ABNEL J4.5STrouble lastSharp workSame trip2026-10-02 CT 4f 48.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/14; 2026-07-15 CT 4f 49.00 Bg MT ft 5/8 · barn: same as lastOC35000b → WVOnJcBCl75kMCKEE CYNTHIA Efield
7DORADOHO WESLEY8.0SRising figsSame trip2026-10-03 CT 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/29; 2026-07-18 CT 3f 36.40 B MT ft 12/27 · barn: same as lastsOC20000b → WVOnJcBCl75kCONTRERAS JAVIERfield
4RUNALDOBOCACHICA ARNALDO6.0PSame trip2026-09-30 CT 3f 35.80 B MT ft 3/9; 2026-05-29 CT 4f 48.00 B MT ft 5/48 · barn: same as lastsFGallMemB75k → WVOnJcBCl75kRUNCO JEFF Cfield
8JUBAS NOTIONPELTROCHE F15.0ERising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-19 CT 6f 76.20 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-05-08 CT 3f 36.40 B MT ft bullet 1/18 · barn: same as lastOC10000 → WVOnJcBCl75kPELTROCHE VANESSAfield
1RUM N COKERIOS-CONDE ALEXIS JR15.0ERising figsTrouble lastSame trip2026-10-01 CT 4f 50.40 B MT ft 5/9; 2026-05-29 CT 4f 50.80 B MT ft 39/48 · barn: same as lastsAlw36600n4l → WVOnJcBCl75kMEEHAN ELIZABETH Eprimed
6JUBAS HAT TRICKLOPEZ ANTONIO15.0S2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-20 CT 3f 36.20 B MT ft 4/9; 2026-07-28 CT 3f 35.60 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as lastsOC20000b → WVOnJcBCl75kSIGLER RONALD Gfield
3MR DUMBLEDORELOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO15.0S—2026-04-24 CT 4f 48.60 B MT ft 3/13; 2026-04-18 CT 4f 49.00 B MT ft 11/33 · barn: same as lastAlw35100n1x → WVOnJcBCl75kGRAMS TIMOTHY Cfield
5BAIL IS DENIEDACOSTA J D15.0PTrouble lastSame trip2026-06-26 CT 4f 48.60 B MT ft 9/30; 2026-05-15 CT 4f 48.20 B MT ft 3/15 · barn: same as lastAlw34100n1x → WVOnJcBCl75kSIGLER RONALD Gfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACECT R10 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1540y · WVOnJcBCl75k
  2. SHAPEWall of speed (#10 #1 #8 #9) into a rail-biased track; duel/meltdown likely; stalkers #2 #7 #6 inherit in scenario B/C
  3. CHALKFavorite#9 RAY OF SUNSHINE · short/usable · fig 83 last, class jump from OC25k, won this trip twice before, but 1.8 offers no price even if it fires
  4. LEANWinner call#9 RAY OF SUNSHINE · proven winner at this exact trip and track, best tactical position if pace softens
  5. PRIMED#1 RUM N COKE (rising figs +24, trouble last "Forced pace; willingly," post 1 inside, E-style into the speed heap — pace path narrow but exists in scenario B if it sits second)
  6. PRICE#10 TICO GRANDE · edge 0.032 · ML 4 · rising figs 84→89, top e1 93, won last gamely, only model overlay not chalk
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#10 TICO GRANDE · min 4-1 · win · if board slips below 3-1 pass
  8. KILL#10 breaks from post 10 into a four-way speed duel on a rail-biased track and burns out before the turn; or chalk clears alone and wins wire-to-wire at 1.8
  9. MISSINGLive tote (ML only), official scratches post-ingest, weather/track condition update, rider changes not reflected in PP lines

Why

Dirt sprint at CT, 1540y, WV-bred open stakes at $75k — moderate-to-high volatility with a wall of four early types colliding in a speed-biased, inside-rail-favoring track. #9 RAY OF SUNSHINE is chalk at 1.8, stepping up sharply from OC25k but returning to a trip it already won at this oval, while three other speed horses (#10, #1, #8) will force an honest-to-hot pace that favors the stalkers behind them. The one primed non-chalk with a real path is #10 TICO GRANDE (4-1, rising figs 84→89, top e1 in the field, won last off the front) — yes, it is also speed, but with the highest zPace score it likely clears to a stalking position if the others tangle, and the model posts the only non-chalk overlay on the sheet.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#10 TICO GRANDE+3.2%ML 4.0Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#1 RUM N COKEML 15.0Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
9RAY OF SUNSHINE1.827.4%29.4%+2.0%0.51EfavoriteLed lastSame trip—
10TICO GRANDE4.015.3%18.5%+3.2%0.98ERising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip—
2CATCH THE HUMOR4.513.9%13.1%-0.8%-0.01STrouble lastSharp workSame trip—
7DORADO8.08.5%8.9%+0.4%0.42SRising figsSame trip—
4RUNALDO6.010.9%7.7%-3.3%-1.19PSame trip—
8JUBAS NOTION15.04.8%6.6%+1.8%1.50ERising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip—
1RUM N COKE15.04.8%4.7%-0.1%0.16ERising figsTrouble lastSame trip—
6JUBAS HAT TRICK15.04.8%3.8%-1.0%-0.70S2nd off layoffSame trip—
3MR DUMBLEDORE15.04.8%3.7%-1.0%-0.75S—
5BAIL IS DENIED15.04.8%3.6%-1.2%-0.90PTrouble lastSame trip—