DED R1 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#12 #8 #2)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#12U RASCAL UE
- C2#1TRAITOURS
- C3#8CHARBONEP
- C4#6IM YOUR MANC
- C5#2CALI DREAMINEP
- C6#11HEDGEC
- C7#5RAZOR CRESTC
- C8#3LUCKY ROMANCEC
- C9#7GREAT BARRIERC
- C10#10SPECIAL STORMYC
- C11#4CAVANALC
- C12#9KEE JEEC
Honest pace among #12 U RASCAL U and #8 CHARBON and #2 CALI DREAMIN. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 TRAITOUR · hurts #12 U RASCAL U, #8 CHARBON, #2 CALI DREAMIN
Pressure: #12 U RASCAL U and #8 CHARBON and #2 CALI DREAMIN hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 TRAITOUR · hurts #12 U RASCAL U, #8 CHARBON, #2 CALI DREAMIN
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 TRAITOUR, #6 IM YOUR MAN, #11 HEDGE, #5 RAZOR CREST, #3 LUCKY ROMANCE, #7 GREAT BARRIER, #10 SPECIAL STORMY, #4 CAVANAL, #9 KEE JEE).
Helps #1 TRAITOUR, #6 IM YOUR MAN, #11 HEDGE, #5 RAZOR CREST, #3 LUCKY ROMANCE, #7 GREAT BARRIER, #10 SPECIAL STORMY, #4 CAVANAL, #9 KEE JEE · hurts #12 U RASCAL U, #8 CHARBON, #2 CALI DREAMIN
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TRAITOURBARRERA ELIO J | 2.5 | S | Rising figsHidden paceTag dropTop last paceSame trip2026-08-11 CCT 5f 62.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-07-07 CCT 5f 63.00 B MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as last | Clm12500b → Clm 5000n4l | LEONARD GEORGE III | Favorite |
| 3 | LUCKY ROMANCETHORNTON T G | 3.5 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 50.20 B MT ft 8/68; 2026-07-17 EVD 4f 51.00 B MT ft 26/42 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000n4l | LANDRY ALLEN RAY | field |
| 11 | HEDGEBARRERA ELIO J | 6.0 | C | Rising figs2026-10-03 DED 4f 52.60 B MT ft 53/76; 2026-09-26 DED 4f 51.40 B MT ft 32/68 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000n4l | CANO JUAN MUNOZ | field |
| 6 | IM YOUR MANHERNANDEZ JAVIER ANTONIO | 6.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 50.00 B MT ft 5/68; 2026-01-10 FG 4f 53.00 B MT ft 68/70 · barn: same as last | OC15000 → Clm 5000n4l | GOVEA CESAR | field |
| 8 | CHARBONVARGAS JUAN P | 4.5 | EP | 2nd off layoffTag dropSame trip2026-10-01 DED 4f 51.00 B MT ft 12/49; 2026-09-24 DED 4f 50.20 B MT ft 6/22 · barn: same as last | Clm12500b → Clm 5000n4l | POMIER CHASEY DEVILLE | field |
| 12 | U RASCAL UFLORIAN JOSE | 8.0 | E | Trouble lastLed last2026-07-25 EVD 4f 49.80 Bg MT ft 11/40; 2026-07-04 EVD 4f 48.40 Bg MT ft 2/45 · barn: same as last | OC15000n1x → Clm 5000n4l | ZENON SHELTON | field |
| 10 | SPECIAL STORMYRAMIREZ JULIO JR | 10.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-21 DED 5f 63.60 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-07-08 EVD 5f 63.20 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | OC15000 → Clm 5000n4l | CHATTERS BENARD | field |
| 7 | GREAT BARRIERBIRZER A E | 12.0 | C | Rising figsTag drop2026-07-26 LAD 5f 63.00 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-06-30 LAD 4f 52.00 B MT ft 21/23 · barn: same as last | Clm7500n3l → Clm 5000n4l | DIXON TIM | field |
| 9 | KEE JEENIEVES EMANUEL | 12.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-08-05 EVD 4f 52.00 B MT ft 5/7; 2025-09-09 CCT 5f 66.00 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | sClm12500b → Clm 5000n4l | ZENO BENJAMIN | field |
| 4 | CAVANALROMAN KEVIN | 12.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 50.60 B MT ft 12/68; 2026-01-16 OP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 11/120 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000n4l | GONZALEZ ISAI V | field |
| 5 | RAZOR CRESTSANTIAGO EDWARD | 15.0 | C | 2nd off layoffTag dropSame trip2026-03-09 FG 4f 53.60 B MT ft 66/67; 2025-11-15 FG 5f 61.60 B MT ft 6/33 · barn: same as last | sClm7500b → Clm 5000n4l | ZENON CHARLES | field |
| 2 | CALI DREAMINLOZADA CARLOS | 15.0 | EP | Rising figs2026-09-30 LAD 4f 51.00 B MT ft 39/45; 2026-07-25 LAD 5f 63.00 B MT ft 10/11 · barn: same as last | sClm5000b → Clm 5000n4l | LARA JORGE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEDED R1 · 2026-10-09 · Dirt 1870y · Clm 5000n4l
- SHAPEWall of early pace (#12/#8/#2) sets up an honest-to-contested pace; stalker #1 best positioned but is chalk; closers inherit in B/C but none hold a clean overlay
- CHALKFavorite#1 TRAITOUR · solid · top LP, rising figs, class drop, route experience, stalker path in A and B — rightful favorite
- LEANWinner call#1 TRAITOUR · best horse and best shape fit, chalk allowed
- PRIMEDnone clearing the two-flag + pace-path bar at a price
- PRICEno price — model shows no non-chalk overlay; all field horses are edge-negative or marginally positive at chalk prices
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#1 breaks poorly or the pace melts to a crawl and a closer inherits; any scratch that removes a speed type changes the map
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt two-turn route at DED, $5,000 claiming restricted field of 12, high volatility from a wall of early pace and a deep closer-heavy field where the shape will likely decide the winner. Three legitimate speed types (#12, #8, #2) are set to hook each other, making the A/B scenarios both point toward the lone stalker #1 TRAITOUR, who owns the top late-pace figure in the field (LP 90), posted a hidden-strong effort Aug 28 (reared at start, 4-5 path, still logged a 75 fig), and drops two full tags from Clm 12500 into a $5k field with a rising fig cycle — but at 5-2 ML he is chalk and not a PLAY. No non-chalk horse clears two ready flags plus a confirmed A/B pace path: #3 LUCKY ROMANCE shows a top fig (80) and rising cycle but has only one prior dirt route start in this class range and is lightly flagged by the model; #11 HEDGE won last in a different classification (n3l vs today's n4l) with a 19-point fig jump but is 57 days since that effort and the 46–90-day away category runs at –0.69 ROI for the barn.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TRAITOUR | 2.5 | 18.6% | 20.3% | +1.7% | 0.53 | S | favoriteRising figsHidden paceTag dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | LUCKY ROMANCE | 3.5 | 14.5% | 15.6% | +1.1% | 0.49 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 11 | HEDGE | 6.0 | 9.3% | 11.1% | +1.8% | 0.87 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 6 | IM YOUR MAN | 6.0 | 9.3% | 10.8% | +1.5% | 0.76 | C | Same trip | — |
| 8 | CHARBON | 4.5 | 11.9% | 9.8% | -2.1% | -0.60 | EP | 2nd off layoffTag dropSame trip | — |
| 12 | U RASCAL U | 8.0 | 7.2% | 6.2% | -1.1% | -0.46 | E | Trouble lastLed last | — |
| 10 | SPECIAL STORMY | 10.0 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -0.4% | -0.08 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 7 | GREAT BARRIER | 12.0 | 5.0% | 5.0% | -0.0% | 0.16 | C | Rising figsTag drop | — |
| 9 | KEE JEE | 12.0 | 5.0% | 4.3% | -0.7% | -0.41 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 4 | CAVANAL | 12.0 | 5.0% | 4.2% | -0.8% | -0.52 | C | Same trip | — |
| 5 | RAZOR CREST | 15.0 | 4.1% | 3.9% | -0.1% | 0.05 | C | 2nd off layoffTag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | CALI DREAMIN | 15.0 | 4.1% | 3.2% | -0.9% | -0.81 | EP | Rising figs | — |