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MNR R8 · 2026-09-29

WATCHD1210y1 price overlay(s)PLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R8 · 2026-09-29 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#11 vs #9)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#11STEALTHTHIRTYFOURE
  2. C2#9FAR FROM HOMEEP
  3. C3#1TEAM LEYENDECKERP
  4. C4#5GILLIGANP
  5. C5#10JURAP
  6. C6#2ETRETATC
  7. C7#3MISCHIEVOUS JUANC
  8. C8#8PROBALE TENC
  9. C9#6ABUELO PAPSC
  10. C10#7MO SNOWC
  11. C11#4DAZZLING TRUTHSC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR and #9 FAR FROM HOME. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #1 TEAM LEYENDECKER, #5 GILLIGAN, #10 JURA · hurts #11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR, #9 FAR FROM HOME

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR and #9 FAR FROM HOME hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #1 TEAM LEYENDECKER, #5 GILLIGAN, #10 JURA · hurts #11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR, #9 FAR FROM HOME

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 ETRETAT, #3 MISCHIEVOUS JUAN, #8 PROBALE TEN, #6 ABUELO PAPS, #7 MO SNOW, #4 DAZZLING TRUTHS).

Helps #2 ETRETAT, #3 MISCHIEVOUS JUAN, #8 PROBALE TEN, #6 ABUELO PAPS, #7 MO SNOW, #4 DAZZLING TRUTHS · hurts #11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR, #9 FAR FROM HOME

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
1TEAM LEYENDECKERTAPARA LUIS2.0PSame trip2026-04-18 MNR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 12/16; 2026-04-07 MNR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 24/37 · barn: same as lastClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xROBILLARD ALYSHAFavorite
11STEALTHTHIRTYFOURSIMPSON JASON5.0ETag dropBarn changeSharp workTop last paceSame trip2026-09-21 TDN 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-09-15 TDN 5f 62.40 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: change vs GUCIARDO ROBERTClm5000b → Clm 4000n1xJACKSON JAMES Roverlay
2ETRETATGONZALEZ KEVIN4.0CSame trip2026-06-21 MNR 4f 48.20 B MT ft bullet 1/18; 2026-06-09 MNR 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 2/18 · barn: same as lastClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xFIGUEROA ROLANDOfield
3MISCHIEVOUS JUANNEGRON LUIS5.0CTag dropTop last figSame trip2026-06-08 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/20; 2026-06-01 MNR 4f 49.40 B MT ft 8/22 · barn: same as lastClm10000b → Clm 4000n1xVAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOSfield
7MO SNOWSILVA JUAN PABLO JR7.0CRising figsTag dropSame trip2026-06-07 MNR 3f 38.80 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-04-07 MNR 4f 51.40 B MT ft 34/37 · barn: same as lastClm10000n2x → Clm 4000n1xROMERO JOSE Afield
6ABUELO PAPSBRACHO AUGUSTIN8.0CSame trip2026-06-19 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-05-12 MNR 3f 37.00 B MT ft 4/18 · barn: same as lastClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xEWELL DEVAN SRfield
5GILLIGANOLIVEROS CHARLE10.0PLed last2026-05-12 TDN 4f 50.80 B MT ft 11/12; 2026-05-01 TDN 4f 50.60 B MT wf 6/7 · barn: same as lastClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xAGUIRRE JUAN Rfield
8PROBALE TENGILBERT KYLE12.0CSame trip2026-05-20 TDD 3f 35.40 B MT sl 1/3; 2026-04-07 TDD 3f 36.20 B MT gd bullet 1/8 · barn: same as lastClm4000n2x → Clm 4000n1xCRAGO TERRYfield
10JURAATHERTON JONATHON R15.0PRising figsSame trip2026-08-05 MNR 4f 51.60 B MT ft 13/20; 2026-04-11 MNR 4f 51.00 B MT ft 9/13 · barn: same as lastClm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1xBROWN JOHN Tfield
4DAZZLING TRUTHSMARTINEZ MIGUEL L15.0C2nd off layoffSame trip2026-07-29 MNR 4f 49.40 B MT ft 4/27; 2026-06-21 MNR 4f 49.40 B MT ft 7/18 · barn: same as lastClm4000n2x → Clm 4000n1xSPIESS SHANE Mfield
9FAR FROM HOMEARROYO N JR20.0EPTag dropSame trip2026-06-21 MNR 4f 49.60 Bg MT ft 8/18; 2026-06-09 MNR 3f 38.20 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: same as lastClm5000n3l → Clm 4000n1xBARBARAN HORACIOfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEMNR R8 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1210y · Clm 4000n1x
  2. SHAPETwo-speed duel (#11 E vs #9 EP) + heavy closer mass; speed/inside bias favors stalkers from low posts; pressure high
  3. CHALKFavorite#1 TEAM LEYENDECKER · solid but short (2-1) · post 1 inside stalker fits the bias, consistent figs 68-73, but price is too tight to play
  4. LEANWinner call#1 TEAM LEYENDECKER · pace path in A and B, post 1 on a rail-bias track, best overall profile
  5. PRIMEDnone (2+ computed flags only on #11, but path is compromised by post 11 on an inside-bias track and 0-for-13 first-start-with-trainer stat)
  6. PRICE#11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR · edge 0.027 · ML 5 — only overlay; bullet work, class drop, barn change, top E1; path exists in A/B as the pace-setter, but post 11 and the 0% new-barn key erode confidence
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #11 is the only overlay and the inside-rail bias directly punishes post 11; no non-chalk horse with a clean path and an acceptable edge clears the bar
  8. KILL#11 breaks clean and clears to a lone-speed setup uncontested; inside bias disappears on a wet or reworked strip; late scratches consolidate pace from outside
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition at post time, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint, Clm 4000n1x at MNR, 11-horse field with a pronounced speed/inside bias and moderate-to-high volatility given the large closer-heavy field chasing scarce pace.

\#11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR (E, post 11) shapes as the lone true early speed against a lightweight EP in \#9 FAR FROM HOME, creating a two-speed duel that A/B both route through the stalkers — primarily chalk \#1 TEAM LEYENDECKER (P, post 1, ML 2) who sits beautifully inside and is solid but short at 2-1.

\#11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR is the only machine-flagged overlay (edge 0.027) with a bullet work (TDN 5f, 1/5 on 9/21), a class drop from Clm5000b, a barn change, and top E1 in the field, though post 11 kills the inside-rail bias and the "1st start with trainer" key shows 0% wins in 13 tries.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#11 STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR+2.7%ML 5.0Tag dropBarn changeSharp workTop last paceSame trip
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Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
1TEAM LEYENDECKER2.023.1%24.4%+1.3%0.44PfavoriteSame trip—
11STEALTHTHIRTYFOUR5.011.5%14.2%+2.7%1.06ETag dropBarn changeSharp workTop last paceSame trip—
2ETRETAT4.013.9%13.8%-0.0%0.20CSame trip—
3MISCHIEVOUS JUAN5.011.5%12.5%+1.0%0.54CTag dropTop last figSame trip—
7MO SNOW7.08.7%7.1%-1.6%-0.57CRising figsTag dropSame trip—
6ABUELO PAPS8.07.7%7.0%-0.7%-0.15CSame trip—
5GILLIGAN10.06.3%5.6%-0.7%-0.27PLed last—
8PROBALE TEN12.05.3%5.2%-0.2%0.09CSame trip—
10JURA15.04.3%3.9%-0.4%-0.17PRising figsSame trip—
4DAZZLING TRUTHS15.04.3%3.3%-1.1%-0.91C2nd off layoffSame trip—
9FAR FROM HOME20.03.3%2.9%-0.4%-0.27EPTag dropSame trip—