SA R10 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2MARCOS PERFORMANCEE
- C2#9AMPLITUDEP
- C3#7IN THE TANKS
- C4#6BEYOND STOKEDS
- C5#3MUSCLEDS
- C6#10CALL ME SIRC
- C7#1DYNODAVEC
- C8#8CIRCUIT BREAKERC
- C9#5KIMMERC
- C10#4SANTA BARBARIANS
#2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE · hurts #7 IN THE TANK, #6 BEYOND STOKED, #3 MUSCLED, #10 CALL ME SIR, #1 DYNODAVE, #8 CIRCUIT BREAKER, #5 KIMMER, #4 SANTA BARBARIAN
Someone presses #2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #9 AMPLITUDE, #7 IN THE TANK, #6 BEYOND STOKED, #3 MUSCLED, #4 SANTA BARBARIAN · hurts #2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 IN THE TANK, #6 BEYOND STOKED, #3 MUSCLED, #10 CALL ME SIR, #1 DYNODAVE, #8 CIRCUIT BREAKER, #5 KIMMER, #4 SANTA BARBARIAN).
Helps #7 IN THE TANK, #6 BEYOND STOKED, #3 MUSCLED, #10 CALL ME SIR, #1 DYNODAVE, #8 CIRCUIT BREAKER, #5 KIMMER, #4 SANTA BARBARIAN · hurts #2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MUSCLEDRISPOLI UMBERTO | 2.5 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-10-02 SA 4f 49.60 H MT ft 6/7; 2026-09-21 SA 4f 50.20 H MT ft 27/33 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000 | GALLAGHER PATRICK | Favorite |
| 4 | SANTA BARBARIANSPENCER J P | 3.0 | S | 3rd start cycleTrouble lastSame trip2026-10-02 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 19/48; 2026-09-24 SA 5f 61.60 H MT ft 9/15 · barn: same as last | DelMarH-G2 → OClm 50000 | HANSON RYAN | primed |
| 10 | CALL ME SIRKIMURA KAZUSHI | 4.5 | C | 3rd start cycleTop last paceSame trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 61.20 H MT ft 22/71; 2026-09-26 SA 5f 62.20 H MT ft 60/73 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000 | GLATT MARK | field |
| 7 | IN THE TANKBAZE T C | 6.0 | S | Rising figsClass drop2026-10-03 SA 4f 48.00 H MT ft 17/64; 2026-09-25 SA 4f 48.80 H MT ft 14/43 · barn: same as last | Alw20000s → OClm 50000 | SAAVEDRA ANTHONY K | primed |
| 1 | DYNODAVEBERRIOS HECTOR ISAAC | 8.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-26 LA 4f 49.60 H MT ft 5/7; 2026-09-19 LA 4f 49.60 H MT ft 6/16 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000 | TREECE CHARLES S | field |
| 9 | AMPLITUDEAYUSO ARMANDO | 10.0 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 61.00 H MT ft 14/71; 2026-09-26 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 45/73 · barn: same as last | OC50000n1x → OClm 50000 | SADLER JOHN W | primed |
| 2 | MARCOS PERFORMANCEGONZALEZ RICARDO | 15.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastBarn changeTop last fig2026-10-01 SA 4f 47.80 H MT ft 4/37; 2026-09-20 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 29/97 · barn: change vs MILLER PETER | Clm32000bc → OClm 50000 | AGUIRRE PAUL | field |
| 6 | BEYOND STOKEDFREY KYLE | 10.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 26/71; 2026-08-09 DMR 4f 51.80 H MT ft 89/91 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000 | PAPAPRODROMOU GEORGE | field |
| 8 | CIRCUIT BREAKERLEZCANO ABEL | 30.0 | C | Barn changeSame trip2026-10-04 SA 4f 47.60 H MT ft 7/24; 2026-09-27 SA 5f 60.20 H MT ft 10/70 · barn: change vs HESS R B JR | Clm25000bc → OClm 50000 | GARCIA ANTONIO C | field |
| 5 | KIMMERPEREIRA TIAGO | 30.0 | C | Hidden pace2026-09-27 LA 5f 63.00 H MT ft 4/4; 2026-09-19 LA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 2/16 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000 | VALLEJO GENARO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R10 · 2026-10-10 · T 1760y OClm 50000
- SHAPELone speed (#2) into a stalker-heavy field; pace shape favors #2 only if unchallenged — stalkers and closers get their shot if #9 presses
- CHALKFavorite#3 MUSCLED · solid · rising figs (76→86→88), won last out at this exact level and trip, Rispoli stays, best all-around profile — just short at 2.5
- LEANWinner call#3 MUSCLED
- PRIMED#7 IN THE TANK (rising figs + class drop, stalker path in A/B); #4 SANTA BARBARIAN (3rd-start cycle + trouble last, but speed figs in stakes company dwarf this field's ceiling and pace score is deeply negative); #9 AMPLITUDE (rising figs + 3rd-start cycle, presser that could shadow #2, but LP faded badly last at 2420y)
- PRICEno price — no non-chalk overlays flagged; all model edges for non-chalk horses are at or below zero
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#9 AMPLITUDE pressing #2 into a duel collapses the lone-speed setup and opens the race for a closer at a price — but no non-chalk horse clears an overlay threshold; if live tote shows #7 at 8-1 or better with a clean turf route path, revisit
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going report (firm vs yielding changes this significantly for #3 and the entire stalker tier), rider changes
Why
Turf route at OClm 50000 on SA, 10-horse field, moderate volatility given a mix of class-droppers, a surface-switching longshot, and a lone-speed setup that depends entirely on whether #2 can clear and coast. #2 MARCOS PERFORMANCE is the lone E in a field of stalkers and closers — Scenario A is clean for him, but he is jumping from Clm32000bc on dirt into an optional claimer on turf at a class he has never won cleanly on grass (0-for-4 on turf, 0-for-5 at routes per the key), making the chalk, #3 MUSCLED, solid on form and usable but short at 2.5. #7 IN THE TANK carries rising figs (80→88→90, last on dirt) and drops from Alw20000s into OClm 50000, which is a real class relief for a horse with competitive turf numbers and a stalking style that fits Scenarios A and B — Baze up from post 7 is a workable trip.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MUSCLED | 2.5 | 22.3% | 23.1% | +0.8% | 0.27 | S | favoriteRising figsSame trip | — |
| 4 | SANTA BARBARIAN | 3.0 | 19.5% | 17.4% | -2.1% | -0.33 | S | 3rd start cycleTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 10 | CALL ME SIR | 4.5 | 14.2% | 15.6% | +1.4% | 0.52 | C | 3rd start cycleTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 7 | IN THE TANK | 6.0 | 11.2% | 12.2% | +1.1% | 0.50 | S | Rising figsClass drop | — |
| 1 | DYNODAVE | 8.0 | 8.7% | 8.7% | +0.0% | 0.14 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 9 | AMPLITUDE | 10.0 | 7.1% | 7.0% | -0.1% | 0.09 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 2 | MARCOS PERFORMANCE | 15.0 | 4.9% | 6.1% | +1.2% | 1.04 | E | Rising figsLed lastBarn changeTop last fig | — |
| 6 | BEYOND STOKED | 10.0 | 7.1% | 5.7% | -1.4% | -0.74 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 8 | CIRCUIT BREAKER | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.2% | -0.21 | C | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 5 | KIMMER | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.8% | -0.7% | -1.27 | C | Hidden pace | — |