FP R8 · 2026-10-06
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FP R8 · 2026-10-06 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#4 #2 #10)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6DESSERT FIRSTP
- C2#4CRUSHED ICEEP
- C3#2LADY ELISEEP
- C4#10CODE OF CONDUCTEP
- C5#1AROSE FOR LYLAC
- C6#7BAR MONEYC
- C7#8AIRO DINEROC
- C8#3NATALIAS RAPS
- C9#5OUR JUJUC
- C10#9LUTIONC
Honest pace among #4 CRUSHED ICE and #2 LADY ELISE and #10 CODE OF CONDUCT. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 DESSERT FIRST, #3 NATALIAS RAP · hurts #4 CRUSHED ICE, #2 LADY ELISE, #10 CODE OF CONDUCT
Pressure: #4 CRUSHED ICE and #2 LADY ELISE and #10 CODE OF CONDUCT hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 DESSERT FIRST, #3 NATALIAS RAP · hurts #4 CRUSHED ICE, #2 LADY ELISE, #10 CODE OF CONDUCT
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 AROSE FOR LYLA, #7 BAR MONEY, #8 AIRO DINERO, #3 NATALIAS RAP, #5 OUR JUJU, #9 LUTION).
Helps #1 AROSE FOR LYLA, #7 BAR MONEY, #8 AIRO DINERO, #3 NATALIAS RAP, #5 OUR JUJU, #9 LUTION · hurts #4 CRUSHED ICE, #2 LADY ELISE, #10 CODE OF CONDUCT
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CRUSHED ICEBENDEZU ALEXANDER | 1.8 | EP | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-23 FP 4f 48.60 B MT ft bullet 1/20; 2026-09-07 FP 4f 49.20 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last | fOC10000n1x → OClm 10000n1x | BECKER SCOTT | Favorite |
| 2 | LADY ELISEREYES FRANK | 2.0 | EP | Top last fig2026-05-28 HAW 5f 61.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-05-15 HAW 4f 48.00 B MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n4l → OClm 10000n1x | CRISTEL MARK J | Favorite |
| 1 | AROSE FOR LYLAMARTINEZ BRODY | 4.5 | C | Top last pace2026-09-15 FP 4f 50.80 B MT ft 10/14; 2026-05-23 FP 3f 39.60 B MT ft 6/8 · barn: same as last | fsOC10000n1x → OClm 10000n1x | ESSENPREIS EDWARD | field |
| 7 | BAR MONEYARRIETA REYNIER | 10.0 | C | —2026-08-11 FP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 9/13; 2026-06-23 FP 5f 64.40 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | fsOC20000n4l → OClm 10000n1x | ESSENPREIS EDWARD | field |
| 3 | NATALIAS RAPFERNANDEZ MIGUEL | 10.0 | S | Sharp work2026-09-22 FP 4f 49.20 B MT ft bullet 1/12; 2026-08-22 FP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 13/18 · barn: same as last | fOC10000n1x → OClm 10000n1x | BECKER SCOTT | field |
| 8 | AIRO DINEROWALES T | 15.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-10-01 FP 3f 40.00 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-07-31 FP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 12/18 · barn: same as last | fClm6250b → OClm 10000n1x | IRION HEATHER | field |
| 6 | DESSERT FIRSTARANGUREN JOHANIS | 20.0 | P | —2026-09-18 FP 4f 51.80 B MT ft 6/9; 2026-06-06 FP 4f 52.00 B MT ft 23/24 · barn: same as last | fOC20000b → OClm 10000n1x | RETANA GABE | field |
| 10 | CODE OF CONDUCTSTANLEY A O | 20.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffTag drop2026-09-08 FP 3f 37.80 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-08-29 FP 3f 37.60 B MT ft 5/11 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n2l → OClm 10000n1x | CLAY PAT | field |
| 5 | OUR JUJUORM CORY | 30.0 | C | Rising figs2026-10-01 FP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 7/14; 2026-09-16 FP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 2/6 · barn: same as last | fMd15000 → OClm 10000n1x | HORNSBY TAMMY | field |
| 9 | LUTIONSANTIAGO VICTOR | 30.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-30 FP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 5/11; 2026-06-11 FP 4f 51.80 B MT my 2/2 · barn: same as last | fClm4000b → OClm 10000n1x | LYNCH HARRY E | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFP R8 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1760y · OClm 10000n1x
- SHAPEWall of EP pace (#4 #2 #10) → honest-to-meltdown duel; stalkers and closers land in A and B
- CHALKFavorite#4 CRUSHED ICE (1.8) — opposable; last fig collapsed to 66 in a duel, negative model edge, pace map against it
- LEANWinner call#1 AROSE FOR LYLA — route win at this exact condition, top LP in field, rail closers get cover when the duel fires
- PRIMEDnone (2+ computed flags); #1 noted: top last LP + sprint-to-route barn angle
- PRICEno non-chalk model overlays (all edge figures negative or near zero for non-chalk horses); #1 model edge 0.019 but overlay=false at ML 4.5
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk overlay clears the threshold; #1 is the LEAN at 4.5 but the sheet carries no primed price horse with a confirmed overlay
- KILL#4 CRUSHED ICE breaks clean and clears unchallenged; rail trip compromised by traffic for #1
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition, rider changes
Why
Dirt two-turn route, OC claiming $10,000 N1X, ten-horse field — moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early pace and a deep closer bench at long odds. Three EP types (#4, #2, #10) project to collide up front in a genuine pace duel, which sets the table for mid-pack stalkers and closers but makes both chalk horses opposable on shape; #4 CRUSHED ICE owns the best class credentials and a bullet work but its last fig dropped to 66 after a duel and its edge figure is negative, while #2 LADY ELISE comes down sharply from sOC20k on a sprint-to-route trip with brutal route barn numbers (6.76% at routes, ROI –1.28). #1 AROSE FOR LYLA is the one primed-price horse with a path: top late-pace figure in the field (LP 89–92 across recent starts), a winning route line at this exact condition (7/28 fOC10000n1x, fig 77, 6w bid, clear late), and a sprint-to-route barn that hits 28.57% (ROI +2.32) — the duel in scenario B/C gives it every yard it needs from the rail. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CRUSHED ICE | 1.8 | 28.0% | 27.7% | -0.3% | 0.18 | EP | favoriteSharp workSame trip | — |
| 2 | LADY ELISE | 2.0 | 26.1% | 27.0% | +0.9% | 0.36 | EP | favoriteTop last fig | — |
| 1 | AROSE FOR LYLA | 4.5 | 14.2% | 16.2% | +1.9% | 0.74 | C | Top last pace | — |
| 7 | BAR MONEY | 10.0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | +0.3% | 0.40 | C | — | |
| 3 | NATALIAS RAP | 10.0 | 7.1% | 5.8% | -1.3% | -0.58 | S | Sharp work | — |
| 8 | AIRO DINERO | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.8% | -0.1% | 0.11 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | DESSERT FIRST | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.6% | -0.1% | 0.11 | P | — | |
| 10 | CODE OF CONDUCT | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.5% | -0.32 | EP | 2nd off layoffTag drop | — |
| 5 | OUR JUJU | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.2% | -0.3% | -0.32 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 9 | LUTION | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.69 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |