FL R5 · 2026-10-07
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R5 · 2026-10-07 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#2 #5 #1)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2FOLLOW YOUR ARROWE
- C2#5BAD CONNECTIONE
- C3#1ISLE STORMEP
- C4#6TERESAP
- C5#4TALE OF THE TAILS
- C6#9EASTERN STARC
- C7#7GLORY BOUND CLARAC
- C8#8IRISH JACKSONC
- C9#3DREAM ON CARAC
Honest pace among #2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW and #5 BAD CONNECTION and #1 ISLE STORM. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 TERESA, #4 TALE OF THE TAIL · hurts #2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW, #5 BAD CONNECTION, #1 ISLE STORM
Pressure: #2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW and #5 BAD CONNECTION and #1 ISLE STORM hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 TERESA, #4 TALE OF THE TAIL · hurts #2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW, #5 BAD CONNECTION, #1 ISLE STORM
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 TALE OF THE TAIL, #9 EASTERN STAR, #7 GLORY BOUND CLARA, #8 IRISH JACKSON, #3 DREAM ON CARA).
Helps #4 TALE OF THE TAIL, #9 EASTERN STAR, #7 GLORY BOUND CLARA, #8 IRISH JACKSON, #3 DREAM ON CARA · hurts #2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW, #5 BAD CONNECTION, #1 ISLE STORM
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FOLLOW YOUR ARROWROHENA J M | 3.0 | E | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-09 FL 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 6/15; 2026-08-18 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 12/32 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n1y → Clm 5000b | ENGLEHART CHRIS | Favorite |
| 3 | DREAM ON CARAWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE | 3.5 | C | Rising figsClass drop2026-07-02 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 8/14; 2026-05-19 FL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 5/14 · barn: same as last | fsAlw24500n1x → Clm 5000b | SELLS RACHEL | primed |
| 8 | IRISH JACKSONGOMEZ O | 4.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-30 FL 3f 37.00 B MT ft 3/10; 2026-07-28 SAR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 22/29 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 5000b | BARROW PAUL | field |
| 4 | TALE OF THE TAILCRUZ JOEL | 5.0 | S | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-29 FL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 11/26; 2026-07-20 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 10/17 · barn: same as last | fClm11000b → Clm 5000b | DIXON LINDA K | field |
| 1 | ISLE STORMALVARADO N R | 8.0 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleTrouble lastLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-07-14 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 6/18; 2026-06-06 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 6/13 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 5000b | DIXON LINDA K | primed |
| 6 | TERESAGUTIERREZ REYLU | 8.0 | P | Same trip2026-08-01 FL 3f 36.20 B MT ft 5/14; 2026-07-25 FL 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 5000b | GUTIERREZ LUIS A | field |
| 7 | GLORY BOUND CLARADAVIS JACQUELINE A | 10.0 | C | Same trip2026-06-05 FL 3f 38.20 B MT ft 12/13; 2026-05-12 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 31/34 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 5000b | BARTLETT WILLIAM H | field |
| 5 | BAD CONNECTIONBERRIOS JOHN C | 15.0 | E | Same trip2026-09-09 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/15; 2026-06-17 FL 4f 48.20 B MT ft 5/24 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 5000b | GUTIERREZ LUIS A | field |
| 9 | EASTERN STARFLORES JEREMIAS | 20.0 | C | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-08-25 TTC 3f 40.00 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-08-15 TTC 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft 4/75 · barn: same as last | fClm11000b → Clm 5000b | BARROW PAUL | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R5 · 2026-10-07 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 5000b
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#2/#5/#1) projects contested pace; stalkers/closers improve in A and B; bias favors early but a duel flips the edge
- CHALKFavorite#2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW · opposable · best figures but pace shape works against her in a three-way duel; speed bias cuts both ways when she's the one being pressed
- LEANWinner call#2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW · most likely winner if pace is honest and she weathers the duel — rising figs, 3rd cycle, class repeater
- PRIMED#1 ISLE STORM (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, trouble last, led last, top e1, same trip) · #3 DREAM ON CARA (rising figs, class drop — but C-only path, A/B don't favor her, zPace -1.75, negative edge, route-to-sprint, trainer ROI -0.88)
- PRICEno price (sheet rec PASS; no non-chalk overlays; #1 ISLE STORM model edge +0.011 but overlay=false per ingest)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#2 clears cleanly without a duel; live tote collapses #1 to chalk range; late scratch of #5 removes the pace pressure that makes this interesting
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches after ingest, weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint at the bottom of the claiming ladder, nine horses, moderate-to-high volatility given cheap fields and multiple early types. Three need-the-lead types (#2, #5, #1) project a contested pace that sets up the pace shape squarely against the chalk, though #2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW carries the best figures and is the rightful winner if the duel doesn't empty her. #1 ISLE STORM is the primed non-chalk to watch — six flags (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, trouble last, led last, top e1, same trip), EP style that can sit just off the duel from post 1 and inherit if #2 and #5 burn each other, path alive in both A and B scenarios at 8-1 ML. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FOLLOW YOUR ARROW | 3.0 | 19.8% | 26.3% | +6.5% | 1.37 | E | favoriteRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 3 | DREAM ON CARA | 3.5 | 17.6% | 15.9% | -1.7% | -0.18 | C | Rising figsClass drop | — |
| 8 | IRISH JACKSON | 4.0 | 15.8% | 15.1% | -0.8% | 0.04 | C | Same trip | — |
| 4 | TALE OF THE TAIL | 5.0 | 13.2% | 11.1% | -2.1% | -0.46 | S | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | ISLE STORM | 8.0 | 8.8% | 9.9% | +1.1% | 0.72 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleTrouble lastLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | TERESA | 8.0 | 8.8% | 8.3% | -0.5% | 0.02 | P | Same trip | — |
| 7 | GLORY BOUND CLARA | 10.0 | 7.2% | 6.1% | -1.1% | -0.41 | C | Same trip | — |
| 5 | BAD CONNECTION | 15.0 | 5.0% | 4.4% | -0.6% | -0.28 | E | Same trip | — |
| 9 | EASTERN STAR | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.9% | -0.9% | -0.83 | C | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip | — |