MNR R1 · 2026-10-04
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R1 · 2026-10-04 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #6 MR BUSINESS
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7ANTE ANTMANP
- C2#6MR BUSINESSEP
- C3#10HOT WINGSC
- C4#8MOVE IN SILENCES
- C5#1WESTHAMPTONC
- C6#2OZZYP
- C7#9SPOONIEC
- C8#5COULD DOC
- C9#4STARSHIP DOROP
- C10#3FAST FALLC
#6 MR BUSINESS controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #6 MR BUSINESS · hurts #10 HOT WINGS, #8 MOVE IN SILENCE, #1 WESTHAMPTON, #9 SPOONIE, #5 COULD DO, #3 FAST FALL
Someone presses #6 MR BUSINESS. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #7 ANTE ANTMAN, #2 OZZY, #4 STARSHIP DORO, #8 MOVE IN SILENCE · hurts #6 MR BUSINESS
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#10 HOT WINGS, #8 MOVE IN SILENCE, #1 WESTHAMPTON, #9 SPOONIE, #5 COULD DO, #3 FAST FALL).
Helps #10 HOT WINGS, #8 MOVE IN SILENCE, #1 WESTHAMPTON, #9 SPOONIE, #5 COULD DO, #3 FAST FALL · hurts #6 MR BUSINESS
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | OZZYPARKER D L | 2.0 | P | Rising figsTag dropSharp work2026-09-25 MNR 5f 62.00 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-08-14 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 6/8 · barn: same as last | Clm15000n2x → Clm 10000n3x | CLOUSTON EDWARD | Favorite |
| 6 | MR BUSINESSTAPARA BRANDON | 3.0 | EP | Led lastSame trip2026-07-04 MNR 3f 37.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-04-18 OEC 4f 50.40 B MT gd 2/5 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n3x | BERNARDINI JAY P | field |
| 1 | WESTHAMPTONNEGRON LUIS | 6.0 | C | Class dropSame trip2026-09-27 MNR 4f 49.20 B MT ft 3/9; 2026-06-16 MNR 4f 47.80 B MT ft bullet 1/29 · barn: same as last | Alw20370n3x → Clm 10000n3x | CORDERO-LOPEZ ALEXIS | field |
| 7 | ANTE ANTMANGONZALEZ KEVIN | 10.0 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag drop2026-04-21 MNR 4f 47.80 B MT ft bullet 1/16; 2026-04-10 MNR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 9/21 · barn: same as last | Clm12500b → Clm 10000n3x | CLULEY DENNIS | primed |
| 4 | STARSHIP DOROGREENIDGE ELIJAH | 7.0 | P | Rising figs2026-09-25 MNR 5f 63.00 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-04-08 MNR 4f 48.40 B MT ft 2/29 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n3x | CLOUSTON EDWARD | field |
| 5 | COULD DORAMGEET A R | 9.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-04-24 MNR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 12/15; 2026-04-14 MNR 4f 48.40 B MT ft 3/25 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n2x → Clm 10000n3x | RAMGEET TINA | field |
| 10 | HOT WINGSARROYO N JR | 15.0 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-01-06 CT 3f 37.80 B MT ft 12/16; 2025-12-06 CT 4f 48.80 Bg MT ft 3/14 · barn: same as last | Clm5000 → Clm 10000n3x | BERNARDINI JAY P | field |
| 8 | MOVE IN SILENCEOLIVEROS CHARLE | 12.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-25 FP 3f 37.80 B MT sy 1/3; 2026-05-02 FP 5f 61.60 B MT ft 2/11 · barn: same as last | Clm6250n2l → Clm 10000n3x | DELONG BEN | field |
| 9 | SPOONIEWEATHERLY BAILEY | 20.0 | C | Barn changeSharp workTop last pace2026-09-26 FP 5f 61.60 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-09-04 RP 5f 62.20 H MT ft 15/15 · barn: change vs BUEHRER MARK W | Clm7500n3l → Clm 10000n3x | DELONG BEN | field |
| 3 | FAST FALLSKERRETT JEFFERSON | 20.0 | C | —2026-07-20 TDD 4f 49.20 B MT gd 2/4; 2026-06-14 MNR 4f 51.20 B MT ft 12/17 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n3x → Clm 10000n3x | POOLE JAMI C | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R1 · 2026-10-04 · Turf 1760y · Clm 10000n3x
- SHAPELone speed (#6 MR BUSINESS) on a speed/inside-rail bias track; closers dominate the field but need a melt that isn't projected in Scenario A
- CHALKFavorite#2 OZZY · short (ML 2) · rising figs, class drop, sharp work all point to a live horse but ROI on turf starts is -0.76 and no overlay exists
- LEANWinner call#6 MR BUSINESS · lone speed at 1760y turf, won this exact trip last out, Scenario A is his race to lose
- PRIMED#7 ANTE ANTMAN (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, tag drop) — pace path exists only in Scenario B; last two runs on dirt, post 7 zero wins in 60-day sample
- PRICEno price (no non-chalk overlay clears the model; #7 ANTE ANTMAN edge +0.018 is below usable threshold)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLOff-turf switch voids the shape entirely; a contested pace in Scenario B collapses #6 and exposes the field to a closer with a real fig
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/going, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Turf route at MNR, Clm 10000n3x, field of 10 — moderate volatility given the outside-post bias kill and a wall of closers chasing a lone speed. #6 MR BUSINESS is the projected lone-speed in Scenario A with a clear path, but the sheet's own model says no overlay, and #2 OZZY is chalk with a class drop and sharp work; no non-chalk overlay clears the model threshold. #7 ANTE ANTMAN is the only primed horse (rising figs 66→69, 3rd-start cycle, tag drop Clm12500b→10000n3x), but last two races were on dirt, today is turf, the fig at 1760y turf dates to June-2026 at Alw level, post 7 carries an outside-posts-win-rate of 0%, and the model edge is only +0.018 — below any credible play threshold.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | OZZY | 2.0 | 26.1% | 25.0% | -1.1% | -0.25 | P | favoriteRising figsTag dropSharp work | — |
| 6 | MR BUSINESS | 3.0 | 19.6% | 19.7% | +0.1% | -0.06 | EP | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | WESTHAMPTON | 6.0 | 11.2% | 10.8% | -0.4% | -0.23 | C | Class dropSame trip | — |
| 7 | ANTE ANTMAN | 10.0 | 7.1% | 8.9% | +1.8% | 0.83 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag drop | — |
| 4 | STARSHIP DORO | 7.0 | 9.8% | 8.9% | -0.9% | -0.48 | P | Rising figs | — |
| 5 | COULD DO | 9.0 | 7.8% | 7.5% | -0.4% | -0.27 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 10 | HOT WINGS | 15.0 | 4.9% | 5.7% | +0.8% | 0.51 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 8 | MOVE IN SILENCE | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% | -0.34 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 9 | SPOONIE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 4.2% | +0.5% | 0.43 | C | Barn changeSharp workTop last pace | — |
| 3 | FAST FALL | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.7% | -0.0% | -0.13 | C | — |