GRP R3 · 2026-10-11
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find GRP R3 · 2026-10-11 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#10FIVE BARS BLAZINUU
- C2#3DC LADYS DASHN EAGLEUU
- C3#4LEE FIVE TUU
- C4#5MR ROYAL CARTELUU
- C5#2FAST MOVIN FREIGHTUU
- C6#9NOWHERE TOO RUNUU
- C7#1TONNY MONTANAUU
- C8#8HUNNY MOONUU
- C9#6L BAR D LITTLE MANUU
- C10#7RIDING THE WINDUU
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps — · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps — · hurts —
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FIVE BARS BLAZINOROZCO KEVIN E | 3.5 | U | 2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd 8/19; 2026-06-07 DIA 1f 13.00 B MT gd 5/8 · barn: same as last | Alw7500nc → Alw 7500nc | CURIEL BENITO | overlay |
| 3 | DC LADYS DASHN EAGLEJASSO MARK A | 3.0 | U | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-05 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd bullet 1/19; 2026-06-06 LA 1f 12.20 Hg MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last | Alw7500nc → Alw 7500nc | MAGALLANES HECTOR | Favorite |
| 4 | LEE FIVE TGARCIA ERICK G | 4.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-05-24 GRP 1f 12.00 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-04-18 HPC 1f 12.80 Bg MT ft 24/33 · barn: same as last | sStk 17.0000k → Alw 7500nc | PORTILLO MARIO | field |
| 5 | MR ROYAL CARTELLOPEZ JAIME E | 6.0 | U | Trouble lastSame trip2026-05-30 HPC 1f 11.20 B MT ft bullet 1/11; 2025-08-26 DIA 1f 12.80 B MT gd bullet 1/9 · barn: same as last | sStk 17.0000k → Alw 7500nc | ROSALES GOMEZ JOSE A | field |
| 2 | FAST MOVIN FREIGHTANAYA ALEX V | 8.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-05-31 JRM 1f 12.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/5; 2025-05-25 EMT 1f 12.80 Bg MT ft 3/10 · barn: same as last | sStk 17.0000k → Alw 7500nc | FERNANDEZ FERNANDO | field |
| 9 | NOWHERE TOO RUNJIMENEZ RAMIRO JURADO | 10.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-06 JRM 1f 12.80 Bg MT ft 7/8; 2026-06-07 DIA 1f 13.00 B MT gd 3/8 · barn: same as last | Alw7500nc → Alw 7500nc | MADRIGAL GILBERTO | field |
| 1 | TONNY MONTANAPEINADO OSCAR M | 12.0 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-30 DIA 1f 11.80 B MT gd bullet 1/7; 2026-05-30 HPC 1f 12.20 B MT ft 2/11 · barn: same as last | Alw7500nc → Alw 7500nc | CAMPOS LORENZO MARQUEZ | primed |
| 8 | HUNNY MOONAMADOR SILVIO RUIZ | 15.0 | U | Same trip2026-04-11 JRM 1.1f 13.60 Bg MT gd 29/35; 2024-04-17 JRM 1f 13.60 Bg MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | fAlw7500nc → Alw 7500nc | JUAREZ RICARDO | field |
| 6 | L BAR D LITTLE MANNUNNALLY BLAKE | 15.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-09 GRP 1f 12.00 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-06-16 GRP 1f 12.60 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | Alw6500n3l → Alw 7500nc | BECKNER TERI L | field |
| 7 | RIDING THE WINDAVILA MAURICIO | 20.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-15 GRP 1f 13.80 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-06-07 GRP 1.4f 16.00 Bg MT ft 5/8 · barn: same as last | Alw6500n3l → Alw 7500nc | GUERRERO EMILIO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEGRP R3 · 2026-10-11 · D / 440y / Alw 7500nc
- SHAPEPace all unknown; bias says speed+rail wins — crawl or scramble equally plausible; volatile
- CHALKFavorite#3 DC LADYS DASHN EAGLE · short · trouble last is real but model is dead-flat vs market; not opposable on shape, just no overlay
- LEANWinner call#10 FIVE BARS BLAZIN · top fig in field, 2nd off layoff, winner-pattern trips — but post 10 fights the bias
- PRIMED#1 TONNY MONTANA (rising figs +14, 2nd off layoff, sprint-to-sprint — primed by flags, but model 0.061 / no overlay)
- PRICE#10 FIVE BARS BLAZIN · edge 0.028 · ML 7/2
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #10 is the only overlay and post 10 against a hard inside/speed bias erases confidence; no non-chalk horse clears both price and path
- KILLAny early speed breaking clean from posts 1–4 that the all-U map missed; rail bias making post 10 a structural loser regardless of fig
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest, running style confirmation (all U)
Why
Dirt 440y sprint at GRP, allowance $7,500nc, field of 10, pace styles all unknown (U across the board), making this a volatile, high-noise sprint where early speed bias and rail advantage are baked into the track profile. All styles coded U so shape is inferred from bias data alone — 50% of winners come from early speed, 42% from posts 1–3, making the inside and early speed the structural edge. #3 DC LADYS DASHN EAGLE is chalk at ML 3, sitting in post 3 with a bullet work, but was squeezed and taken up last out — trouble flag, not dead; model edge is flat zero (0.198 model vs 0.197 mkt), making it essentially a coin flip vs the market with no overlay. #10 FIVE BARS BLAZIN is the designated price overlay (edge 0.028, ML 7/2), 2nd off layoff with top fig in the field (103–104 range, two sprint wins, "dug in / late surge" notes), but draws post 10 in a race where inside and early speed dominate — the path is structurally compromised by post. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FIVE BARS BLAZIN | 3.5 | 17.5% | 20.3% | +2.8% | 0.75 | U | 2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip | — |
| 3 | DC LADYS DASHN EAGLE | 3.0 | 19.7% | 19.8% | +0.0% | 0.17 | U | favoriteTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | LEE FIVE T | 4.0 | 15.8% | 16.0% | +0.2% | 0.21 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | MR ROYAL CARTEL | 6.0 | 11.3% | 10.2% | -1.0% | -0.22 | U | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | FAST MOVIN FREIGHT | 8.0 | 8.8% | 8.5% | -0.3% | 0.02 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 9 | NOWHERE TOO RUN | 10.0 | 7.2% | 7.2% | +0.1% | 0.20 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | TONNY MONTANA | 12.0 | 6.1% | 6.1% | -0.0% | 0.15 | U | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 8 | HUNNY MOON | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.8% | -0.1% | 0.06 | U | Same trip | — |
| 6 | L BAR D LITTLE MAN | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.2% | -0.8% | -0.50 | U | Same trip | — |
| 7 | RIDING THE WIND | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.9% | -0.8% | -0.84 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |