KEE R6 · 2026-10-03
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#6 vs #10)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6JOE SHIESTYE
- C2#10DONCHOE
- C3#4NOBALSS
- C4#2MONDOGETSBUCKETSS
- C5#3NO NAY HUDSONC
- C6#8MY BOY PRINCEC
- C7#7MOTORIOUSC
- C8#9ITS BOURBON THIRTYC
- C9#1SCRIPTC
- C10#5OKIROC
Honest pace among #6 JOE SHIESTY and #10 DONCHO. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 NOBALS, #2 MONDOGETSBUCKETS · hurts #6 JOE SHIESTY, #10 DONCHO
Pressure: #6 JOE SHIESTY and #10 DONCHO hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 NOBALS, #2 MONDOGETSBUCKETS · hurts #6 JOE SHIESTY, #10 DONCHO
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 NOBALS, #2 MONDOGETSBUCKETS, #3 NO NAY HUDSON, #8 MY BOY PRINCE, #7 MOTORIOUS, #9 ITS BOURBON THIRTY, #1 SCRIPT, #5 OKIRO).
Helps #4 NOBALS, #2 MONDOGETSBUCKETS, #3 NO NAY HUDSON, #8 MY BOY PRINCE, #7 MOTORIOUS, #9 ITS BOURBON THIRTY, #1 SCRIPT, #5 OKIRO · hurts #6 JOE SHIESTY, #10 DONCHO
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | JOE SHIESTYDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO | 2.5 | E | Led lastSharp workSame trip2026-09-25 ELP 4f 47.00 B MT ft bullet 1/56; 2026-09-18 ELP 4f 47.80 B MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last | TurfSprntL250k → Woodford-G2 | FOSTER ERIC | Favorite |
| 10 | DONCHOORTIZ IRAD JR | 3.5 | E | Rising figsTrouble lastSharp workTop last figSame trip2026-09-27 CDT 4f 47.60 B MT ft bullet 1/19; 2026-09-20 CDT 5f 58.80 B MT ft 3/11 · barn: same as last | Troy-G2 → Woodford-G2 | LOVELL MICHELLE | primed |
| 7 | MOTORIOUSRISPOLI UMBERTO | 4.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-26 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 12/17; 2026-09-20 SA 5f 59.40 H MT ft 5/18 · barn: same as last | GrnFlshH-G2 → Woodford-G2 | DAMATO PHILIP | field |
| 8 | MY BOY PRINCESAEZ LUIS | 5.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-24 CD 4f 48.40 B MT ft 6/33; 2026-08-28 CNL 3f 39.00 B D IT fm 1/1 · barn: same as last | TrfSprnt-G2 → Woodford-G2 | CASSE MARK | field |
| 3 | NO NAY HUDSONORTIZ JOSE L | 8.0 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-26 KEE 5f 65.40 B D T fm 9/11; 2026-09-19 KEE 4f 52.20 B MT ft 59/59 · barn: same as last | GrnFlshH-G2 → Woodford-G2 | WARD WESLEY A | field |
| 4 | NOBALSCORRALES GERARDO | 15.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-22 TP 4f 48.20 B MT ft 18/72; 2026-08-22 TP 4f 48.40 B MT ft 8/96 · barn: same as last | OC110000b → Woodford-G2 | RIVELLI LARRY | field |
| 5 | OKIROGAFFALIONE TYLER | 12.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-27 ELP 4f 49.40 B MT ft 12/28; 2026-07-18 GP 4f 48.40 B MT ft 3/8 · barn: same as last | TrfSprnt-G2 → Woodford-G2 | GAROFFALO JOSE | field |
| 2 | MONDOGETSBUCKETSCASTELLANO J J | 15.0 | S | Led lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-25 TP 4f 48.00 B MT ft 4/31; 2026-08-29 TP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 38/65 · barn: same as last | TrfSprnt-G2 → Woodford-G2 | BLOCK CHRIS | field |
| 1 | SCRIPTVELAZQUEZ J R | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-29 KEE 3f 36.00 B MT ft 3/5; 2026-09-22 KEE 4f 48.00 B MT ft 6/19 · barn: same as last | OC100000n3x → Woodford-G2 | ARNOLD GEORGE R II | primed |
| 9 | ITS BOURBON THIRTYMACHADO LUAN | 20.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-25 TTC 3f 38.00 B MT ft 5/9; 2026-07-25 KEE 4f 49.00 B TT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | OC100000n3x → Woodford-G2 | O'DWYER JEREMIAH | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEKEE R6 · 2026-10-03 · Turf 1210y · Woodford-G2 · $400k · field 10
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#6 vs #10); if they hook, stalkers and mid-closers inherit — pressure high
- CHALKFavorite#6 JOE SHIESTY · short/usable · legitimate E-speed, bullet work, won this distance repeatedly, but ML 2.5 with a pace duel looming and negative ROI in G-stakes keeps him a LEAN, not a bet
- LEANWinner call#10 DONCHO · top fig (98), rising figs, trouble last excuses the finish, beat this field's level before — if the duel fires he has the tactical speed to sit second or third and pounce
- PRIMED#10 DONCHO (rising_figs +7, trouble_last excused, bullet work, top fig); #1 SCRIPT (rising figs, 2nd off layoff — path is post 1 rail closer in a duel, viable but outgunned by class)
- PRICE#10 DONCHO · ML 3.5 · edge 0.037 · non-chalk overlay
- PLAYPrice ticket#10 DONCHO · win ticket · minimum 3-1 (at 5-2 or shorter, pass)
- KILL#6 JOE SHIESTY steals a soft pace unchallenged — if #10 breaks slowly from post 10 or the duel never materializes, the lone speed wins clean; DONCHO's e1 is variable and his last KEE Woodford trip he faded late
- MISSINGlive tote (ML only), official scratches, weather/going condition, rider changes
Why
Keeneland G2 turf sprint at 1210y with ten horses, two live speed types, and a field full of closers makes for a high-volatility pace duel in a deep class spot. The shape is a two-speed duel (#6 vs #10) that should set up the stalkers and mid-pack closers, with chalk #6 JOE SHIESTY rated solid but short at 2.5 on the ML — the pace map may not be in his favor if #10 hooks him hard. #10 DONCHO is the one primed price horse with a clear path: top fig in the field (98), rising-figs flag (+7 over prior), trouble last (bumped repeatedly at Saratoga that hid the real effort), a bullet work, and a stalking style (call1 4 at SAR) that can sit just off the duel and pounce — he was doing this job at this exact trip a year ago in this same race. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | JOE SHIESTY | 2.5 | 22.3% | 25.5% | +3.3% | 0.92 | E | favoriteLed lastSharp workSame trip | — |
| 10 | DONCHO | 3.5 | 17.3% | 21.0% | +3.7% | 1.15 | E | Rising figsTrouble lastSharp workTop last figSame trip | — |
| 7 | MOTORIOUS | 4.0 | 15.6% | 14.8% | -0.7% | 0.18 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 8 | MY BOY PRINCE | 5.0 | 13.0% | 10.7% | -2.2% | -0.38 | C | Same trip | — |
| 3 | NO NAY HUDSON | 8.0 | 8.7% | 8.3% | -0.4% | 0.21 | C | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 4 | NOBALS | 15.0 | 4.9% | 5.5% | +0.6% | 0.87 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | OKIRO | 12.0 | 6.0% | 4.6% | -1.4% | -0.66 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 2 | MONDOGETSBUCKETS | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.1% | -0.7% | -0.28 | S | Led lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | SCRIPT | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.0% | -0.7% | -0.43 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 9 | ITS BOURBON THIRTY | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.3% | -1.4% | -1.57 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |