WRD R3 · 2026-10-06
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find WRD R3 · 2026-10-06 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#9ARABELLA STONEUU
- C2#2IM JESS A VALENTINEUU
- C3#8DONT GIVE A RIPUU
- C4#5QUEENS ROYAL RIDEUU
- C5#1SCREAMIN CMENUU
- C6#3ONE HANDSOME COCOUU
- C7#10MS RANGERUU
- C8#6GOLD STILETTOSUU
- C9#4RECKLESS FOLLIESUU
- C10#7DC DANISH DYNASTYUU
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps — · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps — · hurts —
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ARABELLA STONERAMIREZ ANGEL O | 2.0 | U | Tag dropSame trip2026-06-05 RMT 1f 13.40 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-05-18 RMT 1f 13.40 B MT ft 2/3 · barn: same as last | Md12500 → Md 10000 | STEIN TYLER | Favorite |
| 2 | IM JESS A VALENTINESMITH CODY RODGER | 5.0 | U | Rising figsMSW → MCLBarn changeSame trip2026-09-20 RP 1f 12.60 H MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-06-30 RMT 1f 11.60 B MT ft 1/3 · barn: change vs ELLIS KERRY | MdSpWt → Md 10000 | VILLAFRANCO LUIS | field |
| 8 | DONT GIVE A RIPESQUEDA ERIK N | 6.0 | U | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-09-05 WRD 1f 11.80 H MT ft 8/26; 2026-08-20 WRD 1f 12.20 H MT ft 20/40 · barn: same as last | Md15000 → Md 10000 | HERNANDEZ-MARTINEZ JOSE | field |
| 5 | QUEENS ROYAL RIDETORRES JORGE | 6.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-03 PRM 1f 12.20 Hg MT ft 7/13; 2026-05-04 WRD 1f 12.40 H MT ft 12/12 · barn: same as last | sMd15000 → Md 10000 | JONES TONY D | field |
| 1 | SCREAMIN CMENCRUZ ROMAN | 6.0 | U | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-13 WRD 1f 12.40 H MT ft 9/13; 2026-08-14 SRM 1f 13.60 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | sMd15000 → Md 10000 | VALDIVIA SAMUEL E | field |
| 3 | ONE HANDSOME COCOPEDRAZA JASTEN | 15.0 | U | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-08-23 WRD 1f 11.60 H MT ft 4/30; 2026-02-16 WRD 1f 13.00 H MT ft 35/39 · barn: same as last | Md15000 → Md 10000 | TORRES VALERIE | field |
| 10 | MS RANGERGUTIERREZ GONZALO | 20.0 | U | Rising figsTrouble lastMSW → MCLBarn changeTop last figSame trip2026-08-09 RP 1f 12.60 H MT ft 4/16; 2026-05-30 RP 1.5f 17.20 H MT ft 3/4 · barn: change vs GARCIA JOSUE JACOB | fMdSpWt → Md 10000 | TOVAR CHRISTOPHER | primed |
| 6 | GOLD STILETTOSESQUEDA CHRISTIAN | 20.0 | U | Barn changeSame trip2026-03-11 RP 1.1f 14.00 Hg MT ft 46/64; 2025-10-17 RDE 1f 12.60 B MT ft 5/9 · barn: change vs MELENDEZ YARELI | Md5000 → Md 10000 | RASCON-ALMANZA JULIO | field |
| 4 | RECKLESS FOLLIESJAQUEZ OSCAR | 20.0 | U | Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip2026-09-01 RP 1f 12.60 H MT ft 11/25; 2026-07-01 FMT 1f 12.60 H MT ft 4/6 · barn: same as last | Md10000 → Md 10000 | GONZALEZ JORGE | primed |
| 7 | DC DANISH DYNASTYARELLANO JUAN | 15.0 | U | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-12 WRD 1f 12.40 Hg MT ft 13/18; 2026-08-27 WRD 1f 12.60 H MT ft 17/21 · barn: same as last | Md20000 → Md 10000 | WILLIS EDDIE D | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEWRD R3 · 2026-10-06 · D 250y · Md10000 · field 10
- SHAPEAll styles unknown — no pace map; lone-speed or crawl equally likely; 250y QH means position off the break is everything
- CHALKFavorite#9 ARABELLA STONE · solid · consistent figure range 79–86, recent pattern fits trip, class drop is real; model edge positive but shortest ML in field
- LEANWinner call#9 ARABELLA STONE · best overall fig profile and class trajectory support a win
- PRIMED#10 MS RANGER (rising figs +28, trouble last, MSW→MCL, barn change, top last fig in field); #4 RECKLESS FOLLIES (rising figs +25, trouble last — fig base is thin and still below the field ceiling)
- PRICEno non-chalk overlays (model edge horses either chalk or below overlay threshold)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk overlay clears; #10 ML 20-1 has the flag stack but model edge is negligible (0.003) and the fig spike came with gate trouble on a short sprint, making it a speculative ticket, not a structured play
- KILLa gate draw that buries #9, or #10's 86 was a fig anomaly on a fast-running track with a generous variant
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt 250y maiden claimer at WRD with a field of 10 and all pace styles unknown — high volatility, short-field QH sprint where a single break angle decides the outcome. Shape is entirely opaque (every style marked U), chalk #9 ARABELLA STONE is the model overlay but is also the shortest ML, making it an automatic PASS for PLAY; the best-fit primed horse is #10 MS RANGER, who posted the field's top last fig (86) while suffering a slow break and a break-out at LS, now drops from fMdSpWt into MCL with a barn change — rising figs (+28), trouble last, and MSW→MCL stack to two-plus flags, though the 20-1 ML represents a genuine price if that fig was real.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ARABELLA STONE | 2.0 | 27.9% | 31.0% | +3.2% | 0.67 | U | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | IM JESS A VALENTINE | 5.0 | 13.9% | 13.6% | -0.3% | 0.15 | U | Rising figsMSW → MCLBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 8 | DONT GIVE A RIP | 6.0 | 11.9% | 13.6% | +1.7% | 0.76 | U | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 5 | QUEENS ROYAL RIDE | 6.0 | 11.9% | 11.7% | -0.2% | 0.17 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | SCREAMIN CMEN | 6.0 | 11.9% | 10.3% | -1.6% | -0.35 | U | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | ONE HANDSOME COCO | 15.0 | 5.2% | 4.9% | -0.3% | 0.02 | U | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 10 | MS RANGER | 20.0 | 4.0% | 4.3% | +0.3% | 0.58 | U | Rising figsTrouble lastMSW → MCLBarn changeTop last figSame trip | — |
| 6 | GOLD STILETTOS | 20.0 | 4.0% | 3.7% | -0.3% | -0.09 | U | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 4 | RECKLESS FOLLIES | 20.0 | 4.0% | 3.5% | -0.5% | -0.31 | U | Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 7 | DC DANISH DYNASTY | 15.0 | 5.2% | 3.3% | -1.9% | -1.61 | U | Tag dropSame trip | — |