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TDN R5 · 2026-10-06

BETD1320y1 price overlay(s)2 readyPLAY lookRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R5 · 2026-10-06 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #6)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#2SASSY WALKERE
  2. C2#6NOT TODAYE
  3. C3#7MIDNIGHT WONDERS
  4. C4#5GOOSEBUMPSS
  5. C5#3BANANA PUDDINGC
  6. C6#1RIOBELLAC
  7. C7#4HONDURAS PASSIONC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #2 SASSY WALKER and #6 NOT TODAY. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #7 MIDNIGHT WONDER, #5 GOOSEBUMPS · hurts #2 SASSY WALKER, #6 NOT TODAY

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #2 SASSY WALKER and #6 NOT TODAY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #7 MIDNIGHT WONDER, #5 GOOSEBUMPS · hurts #2 SASSY WALKER, #6 NOT TODAY

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 MIDNIGHT WONDER, #5 GOOSEBUMPS, #3 BANANA PUDDING, #1 RIOBELLA, #4 HONDURAS PASSION).

Helps #7 MIDNIGHT WONDER, #5 GOOSEBUMPS, #3 BANANA PUDDING, #1 RIOBELLA, #4 HONDURAS PASSION · hurts #2 SASSY WALKER, #6 NOT TODAY

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
5GOOSEBUMPSRIVERA L R2.0SRising figsTop last fig2026-09-30 TDN 3f 40.40 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-09-17 TDN 4f 47.40 B MT ft bullet 1/18 · barn: same as lastfAlw39500n1x → Alw 29700n2xHAMM TIMOTHYFavorite
1RIOBELLAGONZALEZ L A2.5C—2026-09-26 TDN 4f 49.60 Bg MT ft 15/33; 2026-09-03 TDN 5f 62.20 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as lastfOC16000 → Alw 29700n2xPUHL KIMFavorite
2SASSY WALKERBRACHO JOSE A4.0ETop last paceSame trip2026-07-12 TDN 4f 47.00 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-06-30 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft bullet 1/13 · barn: same as lastfAlw31000n1x → Alw 29700n2xZIELINSKI RICHARDoverlay
7MIDNIGHT WONDERSKERRETT JEFFERSON3.5SRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-05-11 TDN 4f 46.60 B MT ft bullet 1/27; 2026-04-25 TDN 4f 47.00 MT wf bullet 1/12 · barn: same as lastfAlw37700n2x → Alw 29700n2xSKERRETT JEFFREYprimed
4HONDURAS PASSIONCHAVEZ ALEXANDER10.0CRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-19 TDN 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-08-01 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT ft 3/14 · barn: same as lastfAlw28000n2l → Alw 29700n2xPUHL KIMprimed
3BANANA PUDDINGSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO12.0CRising figsSame trip2026-08-17 TDN 4f 48.80 B MT ft 3/14; 2026-06-12 PID 3f 38.80 B MT ft 7/14 · barn: same as lastfAlw37700n2x → Alw 29700n2xJOHNSON GARY Lfield
6NOT TODAYINNIS JEROME J15.0E2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip2026-08-22 TDN 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft bullet 1/9; 2026-07-04 TDN 3f 37.80 B MT ft 10/16 · barn: same as lastfClm7500n3l → Alw 29700n2xRAY KEVINfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACETDN R5 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1320y · Alw 29700n2x
  2. SHAPETwo-speed duel (#2 SASSY WALKER vs #6 NOT TODAY) with stalkers and closers positioned to inherit; speed bias track but pace collapse likely
  3. CHALKFavorite#5 GOOSEBUMPS ML 2 · solid but short — top fig, class relief, clean trip; no shape reason to fade, just no price
  4. LEANWinner call#5 GOOSEBUMPS · best horse, clean A/B path, top fig in field
  5. PRIMED#7 MIDNIGHT WONDER (rising figs 71→76→78, 3rd-start cycle, trouble trip last — no room rail); #4 HONDURAS PASSION (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, closing style — fig ceiling 77 is well below the top)
  6. PRICE#2 SASSY WALKER edge 0.038 (model overlay, but E style into a duel; pace-negative shape for a win play) · #7 MIDNIGHT WONDER no model overlay but primed with a path
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#7 MIDNIGHT WONDER · win · minimum 7-2 · PASS if board opens shorter
  8. KILL#5 GOOSEBUMPS breaks clean and clears alone — pace duel never materializes, stalkers have no fractions to run at; or live tote installs #7 below 3-1
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/track condition update, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint, ALw n2x, seven mares, moderate-to-high volatility with two live speed horses setting up a pace duel that figures to cook them both. #5 GOOSEBUMPS is dual chalk at ML 2, top fig (87) in the field, class drop from n1x, and a clean stalking style that benefits in A and B — solid favorite but short. #7 MIDNIGHT WONDER is the primed price play: three-start rising cycle (71→76→78), "no room rail" trip last out at TDN, and a stalking style with a natural path in A and B as the duel between #2 and #6 sets the table.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#2 SASSY WALKER+3.8%ML 4.0Top last paceSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#7 MIDNIGHT WONDERML 3.5Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip
#4 HONDURAS PASSIONML 10.0Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
5GOOSEBUMPS2.026.2%28.3%+2.1%0.60SfavoriteRising figsTop last fig—
1RIOBELLA2.522.5%21.2%-1.2%0.07Cfavorite—
2SASSY WALKER4.015.7%19.6%+3.8%1.17ETop last paceSame trip—
7MIDNIGHT WONDER3.517.5%16.3%-1.1%0.03SRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip—
4HONDURAS PASSION10.07.1%6.1%-1.0%-0.31CRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip—
3BANANA PUDDING12.06.0%4.9%-1.2%-0.58CRising figsSame trip—
6NOT TODAY15.04.9%3.6%-1.3%-0.97E2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip—