MNR R3 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#3 vs #8)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3LEAVE DRAMA BEHINDE
- C2#8ALIEN PRINCESSE
- C3#2BASHFUL DAISYP
- C4#9A LITTLE BIT CRAZYP
- C5#7COUNTRY CHERRYS
- C6#6BEAUTY OF THE NILES
- C7#5WHISPERING SEAP
- C8#1MY LUCKY DEIAS
- C9#10WORLDLY BEAUTYS
- C10#4NEVER SO LUCKYC
Honest pace among #3 LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND and #8 ALIEN PRINCESS. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #2 BASHFUL DAISY, #9 A LITTLE BIT CRAZY, #5 WHISPERING SEA, #7 COUNTRY CHERRY, #6 BEAUTY OF THE NILE, #1 MY LUCKY DEIA, #10 WORLDLY BEAUTY · hurts #3 LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND, #8 ALIEN PRINCESS
Pressure: #3 LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND and #8 ALIEN PRINCESS hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #2 BASHFUL DAISY, #9 A LITTLE BIT CRAZY, #5 WHISPERING SEA, #7 COUNTRY CHERRY, #6 BEAUTY OF THE NILE, #1 MY LUCKY DEIA, #10 WORLDLY BEAUTY · hurts #3 LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND, #8 ALIEN PRINCESS
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 COUNTRY CHERRY, #6 BEAUTY OF THE NILE, #1 MY LUCKY DEIA, #10 WORLDLY BEAUTY, #4 NEVER SO LUCKY).
Helps #7 COUNTRY CHERRY, #6 BEAUTY OF THE NILE, #1 MY LUCKY DEIA, #10 WORLDLY BEAUTY, #4 NEVER SO LUCKY · hurts #3 LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND, #8 ALIEN PRINCESS
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | A LITTLE BIT CRAZYGREENIDGE ELIJAH | 1.4 | P | Tag dropSame trip2026-04-18 CT 4f 48.60 B MT ft 6/33; 2026-04-07 CT 4f 50.20 B MT ft 4/4 · barn: same as last | fClm7500 → Clm 5000 | POOLE JAMI C | Favorite |
| 10 | WORLDLY BEAUTYARROYO N JR | 3.0 | S | —2026-04-19 TDN 4f 49.20 B MT ft 9/14; 2026-02-06 GP 4f 51.40 B MT ft 22/27 · barn: same as last | fClm5000 → Clm 5000 | BERNARDINI JAY P | field |
| 7 | COUNTRY CHERRYTAPARA BRANDON | 6.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-03-28 CT 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft bullet 1/14; 2025-12-17 CT 3f 36.80 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | fOC10000 → Clm 5000 | SHANLEY TYLER S | field |
| 4 | NEVER SO LUCKYYARANGA Y | 8.0 | C | Tag dropTop last fig2026-08-13 PEN 4f 51.40 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-07-13 PEN 4f 51.00 B MT ft 5/6 · barn: same as last | fClm10000 → Clm 5000 | HARIGEORGIOU KONSTAN | field |
| 2 | BASHFUL DAISYRAMGEET A R | 12.0 | P | Class dropSame trip2026-05-12 CT 4f 48.60 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-05-01 CT 4f 50.20 B MT ft 17/25 · barn: same as last | fAlw4000s → Clm 5000 | RAMGEET TINA | field |
| 5 | WHISPERING SEAKEISER CHELSEY | 10.0 | P | Rising figsTag drop2026-06-06 TDN 3f 39.60 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-05-23 TDN 3f 38.00 B MT sy 2/5 · barn: same as last | fClm6250b → Clm 5000 | CCAMAQUE MARCO | field |
| 3 | LEAVE DRAMA BEHINDVILCHEZ MAIKOL | 15.0 | E | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-02 MNR 3f 37.40 B MT ft 4/8; 2026-06-09 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 6/18 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n3x → Clm 5000 | SCALLAN ROBERT S | field |
| 1 | MY LUCKY DEIAOLIVEROS CHARLE | 15.0 | S | Same trip2026-05-12 MNR 3f 35.40 B MT ft bullet 1/18; 2026-04-25 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 7/9 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n4l → Clm 5000 | SILVA JUAN PABLO | field |
| 8 | ALIEN PRINCESSTAPARA LUIS | 20.0 | E | Tag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-05 MNR 3f 36.40 B D MT my 1/3; 2026-02-04 MVR 4f 46.80 B MT ft bullet 1/17 · barn: same as last | fClm7500 → Clm 5000 | BERNARDINI JAY P | field |
| 6 | BEAUTY OF THE NILEBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 20.0 | S | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-08-04 MNR 3f 38.60 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-06-16 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 16/29 · barn: same as last | fClm7500 → Clm 5000 | KNUDSEN KENT | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R3 · 2026-09-27 · Turf 1100y Clm 5000
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#3 vs #8 from mid-posts) into speed/inside-biased track; presser-stalker tier gets the flow, but posts 8+ are 0-for in 60-day sample
- CHALKFavorite#9 A LITTLE BIT CRAZY · opposable · turf win rate 3.7%, trainer turf ROI -1.49, post 9 outside the winning post corridor; model edge negligible
- LEANWinner call#9 A LITTLE BIT CRAZY · best overall fig and class-drop profile; opposable on surface/post but still the most likely winner in a weak field
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse clears 2+ flags with a surface-positive A/B path)
- PRICEno price (model shows no non-chalk overlay; all non-chalk edges are flat or negative)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLTrack comes up soft (figures and pace compress, chalk's dirt-based fig advantage shrinks further); live tote shortens chalk past 1-1 making fade even more natural but still no price ticket available
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, current going report (firm vs soft changes the shape materially for turf sprint), weather
Why
Turf sprint claiming at MNR, tight $5k tag, field of 10 switching to grass — volatility moderate-to-high given the surface switch and two speed horses likely to duel from outside posts (8 and 3) into a speed-biased, inside-favoring track where posts 8+ have zero wins in the 60-day sample. Shape is a two-speed duel (#3 vs #8 from posts 3 and 8 respectively) that sets up the presser/stalker tier; chalk #9 A LITTLE BIT CRAZY (1.4 ML, model edge tiny at 0.021, post 9, turf win rate 3.7%, trainer ROI -1.49 on turf) is a dirt specialist dropped into a surface where her barn and her own lines are deeply negative — opposable on surface and post grounds despite being the best overall fig carrier. No horse clears the PRIMED bar (2+ flags) among non-chalk horses with a clean A/B pace path on today's turf sprint — #4 NEVER SO LUCKY has tag-drop + top fig but is a C-only closer (0 wins route-to-sprint, Rte→Sprint 0% win), #7 COUNTRY CHERRY has rising figs but soft underlying numbers (fig 60, trainer 0-for-2 at meet, shipper ROI -1.62), and #3 LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND carries a big tag drop but a 0% turf win rate for the barn (-2.00 ROI dirt-to-turf) and collapses in duels; no non-chalk horse combines 2+ ready flags with a surface-positive profile and an A/B path. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | A LITTLE BIT CRAZY | 1.4 | 31.8% | 33.9% | +2.1% | 0.41 | P | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 10 | WORLDLY BEAUTY | 3.0 | 19.1% | 18.6% | -0.6% | 0.04 | S | — | |
| 7 | COUNTRY CHERRY | 6.0 | 10.9% | 11.2% | +0.3% | 0.26 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 4 | NEVER SO LUCKY | 8.0 | 8.5% | 9.3% | +0.8% | 0.52 | C | Tag dropTop last fig | — |
| 2 | BASHFUL DAISY | 12.0 | 5.9% | 6.4% | +0.5% | 0.49 | P | Class dropSame trip | — |
| 5 | WHISPERING SEA | 10.0 | 6.9% | 5.3% | -1.7% | -0.94 | P | Rising figsTag drop | — |
| 3 | LEAVE DRAMA BEHIND | 15.0 | 4.8% | 4.4% | -0.4% | -0.16 | E | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 1 | MY LUCKY DEIA | 15.0 | 4.8% | 4.2% | -0.5% | -0.32 | S | Same trip | — |
| 8 | ALIEN PRINCESS | 20.0 | 3.6% | 3.6% | +0.0% | 0.17 | E | Tag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | BEAUTY OF THE NILE | 20.0 | 3.6% | 3.1% | -0.5% | -0.47 | S | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip | — |