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ASD R5 · 2026-09-29

PASSD1320yPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find ASD R5 · 2026-09-29 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Lone speed #3 SHIP BOSS

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#3SHIP BOSSEP
  2. C2#5RHODESIAP
  3. C3#6RED ROAD RUNNERS
  4. C4#1BOSSY HOLIDAYS
  5. C5#2MASTER OF DISGUISEC
  6. C6#4CURLY ESAC
A · Likely — expected flow

#3 SHIP BOSS controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.

Helps #3 SHIP BOSS · hurts #6 RED ROAD RUNNER, #1 BOSSY HOLIDAY, #2 MASTER OF DISGUISE, #4 CURLY ESA

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Someone presses #3 SHIP BOSS. Soft-lead thesis dies.

Helps #5 RHODESIA, #6 RED ROAD RUNNER, #1 BOSSY HOLIDAY · hurts #3 SHIP BOSS

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 RED ROAD RUNNER, #1 BOSSY HOLIDAY, #2 MASTER OF DISGUISE, #4 CURLY ESA).

Helps #6 RED ROAD RUNNER, #1 BOSSY HOLIDAY, #2 MASTER OF DISGUISE, #4 CURLY ESA · hurts #3 SHIP BOSS

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
1BOSSY HOLIDAYKNIGHTS RACHAAD1.6SRising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip2026-05-26 ASD 5f 63.20 B MT ft 12/13; 2026-05-17 ASD 5f 63.80 H MT ft 5/6 · barn: same as lastClm4500n1y → Clm 3000n2yGOULET MONIQUEFavorite
5RHODESIABALROOP SVEN2.0PTag dropSame trip2026-05-27 ASD 5f 65.00 B MT ft 12/12; 2026-05-20 ASD 5f 63.20 H MT ft 9/14 · barn: same as lastClm4500b → Clm 3000n2yGOULET MONIQUEFavorite
6RED ROAD RUNNERWHITEHALL ANTONIO3.0SRising figsTag dropSame trip2026-07-15 ASD 5f 66.80 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-06-22 ASD 5f 64.20 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as lastClm5000n4l → Clm 3000n2yNAULT MICHAELfield
2MASTER OF DISGUISECUMBERBATCH R5.0CRising figsTag dropSame trip2026-06-27 ASD 3f 37.20 B MT ft 2/7; 2026-05-09 ASD 3f 38.00 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as lastClm7500 → Clm 3000n2yRAWSON FREDfield
4CURLY ESASTEPHENSON NEVILLE20.0CTag dropSame trip2026-08-26 ASD 4f 51.20 B MT ft 5/8; 2026-07-30 ASD 4f 50.00 H MT ft 3/11 · barn: same as lastClm5500 → Clm 3000n2yKESHANE NORBERTfield
3SHIP BOSSBUDHU ARTHUR25.0EPTag dropTop last paceSame trip2026-05-03 ASD 3f 37.00 B MT ft 3/10; 2026-02-28 FON 3f 38.20 B MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as lastClm4000 → Clm 3000n2yLAING SHERRYfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEASD R5 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 3000n2y
  2. SHAPELone speed #3, honest stalker pace behind — inside rail bias strongly favors post-1 stalker
  3. CHALKFavorite#1 BOSSY HOLIDAY · solid · top fig, rail post, rising cycle, class drop into ideal spot, bias-aligned
  4. LEANWinner call#1 BOSSY HOLIDAY · winner call
  5. PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches 2+ flags with a win path)
  6. PRICEno price (zero non-chalk overlays per sheet)
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS — only overlay is chalk; no price horse qualifies
  8. KILL#3 SHIP BOSS clears uncontested and wire-to-wires at a number that beats its figs; or a scratch collapses the pace entirely and a closer inherits
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/surface condition at post time, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint at the bottom of the claiming ladder (Clm 3000n2y, $10,200 purse), six horses, speed-biased inside rail — moderate volatility mostly from the chalky two-horse top.

Lone speed (#3 SHIP BOSS) projects to a soft lead, but its figs are the weakest in the field and the chalk (#1 BOSSY HOLIDAY, ML 1.6) is a multi-flag, class-dropping stalker sitting on the best last fig with a rail post in a track that pays inside 70% of the time.

No horse outside chalk carries two or more primed flags with a viable win path — the desk printed zero primed non-chalk names and zero price overlays.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
1BOSSY HOLIDAY1.631.5%34.1%+2.6%0.74SfavoriteRising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip—
5RHODESIA2.027.3%27.4%+0.1%0.43PfavoriteTag dropSame trip—
6RED ROAD RUNNER3.020.5%22.1%+1.6%0.72SRising figsTag dropSame trip—
2MASTER OF DISGUISE5.013.7%11.1%-2.6%-0.41CRising figsTag dropSame trip—
4CURLY ESA20.03.9%2.8%-1.1%-0.92CTag dropSame trip—
3SHIP BOSS25.03.2%2.5%-0.7%-0.56EPTag dropTop last paceSame trip—