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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#1 vs #6)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#1WATERLOO SUNSETE
  2. C2#6FLOAT AWAYEP
  3. C3#3BEAUTIFUL CRAZYS
  4. C4#5MISS M MS
  5. C5#4ALL ABOUT MEC
  6. C6#2IM HEADING EASTC
  7. C7#7PAGEANT PRINCESSC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #1 WATERLOO SUNSET and #6 FLOAT AWAY. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #3 BEAUTIFUL CRAZY, #5 MISS M M · hurts #1 WATERLOO SUNSET, #6 FLOAT AWAY

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #1 WATERLOO SUNSET and #6 FLOAT AWAY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #3 BEAUTIFUL CRAZY, #5 MISS M M · hurts #1 WATERLOO SUNSET, #6 FLOAT AWAY

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 BEAUTIFUL CRAZY, #5 MISS M M, #4 ALL ABOUT ME, #2 IM HEADING EAST, #7 PAGEANT PRINCESS).

Helps #3 BEAUTIFUL CRAZY, #5 MISS M M, #4 ALL ABOUT ME, #2 IM HEADING EAST, #7 PAGEANT PRINCESS · hurts #1 WATERLOO SUNSET, #6 FLOAT AWAY

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
4ALL ABOUT MEROJAS MARTINA3.0CRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-20 CDT 4f 49.20 B MT sy 1/2; 2026-08-05 CDT 3f 36.40 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as lastfClm5000b → Clm 6250bRADOSEVICH SHELLY RFavorite
2IM HEADING EASTGALLARDO ANTONIO A3.5CRising figsTop last figSame trip2026-05-07 BLF 4f 50.60 B MT sl 4/16; 2026-05-01 BLF 4f 50.20 B MT sl 3/15 · barn: same as lastfClm5000b → Clm 6250bDEPASQUALE KIMBERLYfield
6FLOAT AWAYPRUITT CIERA4.0EPSame trip2026-07-21 PID 4f 48.80 B MT ft 8/15; 2026-07-14 PID 3f 37.00 B MT ft 4/8 · barn: same as lastfClm5000b → Clm 6250bBOURKE W JOHNfield
7PAGEANT PRINCESSMARTINEZ GADDIEL A4.5CTrouble lastClass drop2026-09-17 PEN 4f 50.00 B MT gd 8/14; 2026-07-03 PEN 4f 49.20 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as lastfAlw37100n1x → Clm 6250bKULP BRANDON Lprimed
5MISS M MALENCAR WALBER7.0SRising figsSame trip2026-03-10 PRX 4f 50.60 B MT ft 58/65; 2024-12-31 PRX 4f 53.80 B MT my 34/36 · barn: same as lastfClm5000b → Clm 6250bVALDEZ MOISESfield
3BEAUTIFUL CRAZYRODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O10.0SRising figsLed lastSame trip2026-06-23 CT 4f 50.00 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-03-28 GP 3f 38.20 B MT ft 12/19 · barn: same as lastfOC10000 → Clm 6250bFARRIOR ANTHONYfield
1WATERLOO SUNSETDELGADO DAVID10.0ETrouble lastLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-07-06 PID 4f 47.40 Bg MT ft 6/11; 2026-06-21 PID 4f 51.60 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: same as lastfClm5000b → Clm 6250bVALDEZ MOISESfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEPID R6 · 2026-10-06 · D 1320y Clm 6250b
  2. SHAPETwo-speed duel (#1 E vs #6 EP) sets up stalkers; rail/speed bias favors inside closers in A/B
  3. CHALKFavorite#4 ALL ABOUT ME · short (3-1 ML) · rising figs + 3rd cycle are real but the price is not there
  4. LEANWinner call#4 ALL ABOUT ME · best cycle, top fig, inside closer on a rail-bias track
  5. PRIMED#7 PAGEANT PRINCESS (trouble last + class drop) — path is C-only; post 7 fights the bias
  6. PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlays in this field)
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS
  8. KILL#6 FLOAT AWAY gets clear and wire-to-wires on a speed-bias day; chalk drifts to a playable number at the window (no tote in hand)
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint at Presque Isle in a $6,250 claiming field with a speed-and-early-presser setting the table for stalkers — moderate-to-high volatility in a thin, beatable field.

#1 WATERLOO SUNSET and #6 FLOAT AWAY project a two-speed duel that should set up the stalkers and closers; chalk #4 ALL ABOUT ME is a C-style with rising figs and a 3rd-cycle flag, but at 3-1 ML it is chalk by definition and no price exists in this field.

#7 PAGEANT PRINCESS is the sheet's PRIMED horse (trouble last, class drop from N1X allowance), but her figs are soft (52 last, turf route context), her pace style is C from post 7 on a rail-bias track where posts 8+ have zero wins in the sample, and her model edge is negative — path exists only in scenario C.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#7 PAGEANT PRINCESSML 4.5Trouble lastClass drop

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
4ALL ABOUT ME3.021.5%23.2%+1.6%0.40CfavoriteRising figs3rd start cycleSame trip—
2IM HEADING EAST3.519.1%20.2%+1.0%0.32CRising figsTop last figSame trip—
6FLOAT AWAY4.017.2%18.7%+1.4%0.43EPSame trip—
7PAGEANT PRINCESS4.515.7%12.6%-3.0%-0.75CTrouble lastClass drop—
5MISS M M7.010.8%11.1%+0.3%0.21SRising figsSame trip—
3BEAUTIFUL CRAZY10.07.8%8.3%+0.4%0.32SRising figsLed lastSame trip—
1WATERLOO SUNSET10.07.8%6.0%-1.8%-0.94ETrouble lastLed lastTop last paceSame trip—