ASD R2 · 2026-10-06
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find ASD R2 · 2026-10-06 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4MISS ZP
- C2#3MAIBELLAS
- C3#5PLAY FREE BIRDS
- C4#1FLYING MISSC
- C5#2MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORMC
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #4 MISS Z, #3 MAIBELLA, #5 PLAY FREE BIRD · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #4 MISS Z, #3 MAIBELLA, #5 PLAY FREE BIRD · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 MAIBELLA, #5 PLAY FREE BIRD, #1 FLYING MISS, #2 MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM).
Helps #3 MAIBELLA, #5 PLAY FREE BIRD, #1 FLYING MISS, #2 MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PLAY FREE BIRDTOWNSEND SHAVON | 1.2 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-08-19 ASD 4f 49.20 H MT ft 2/16; 2026-05-13 ASD 4f 50.20 B MT ft 11/28 · barn: same as last | fClm4000 → Clm 3000n1y | HOMER JASON | Favorite |
| 4 | MISS ZBYNOE DAMARIO | 1.6 | P | Top last paceSame trip2026-06-09 ASD 3f 38.60 B MT ft 1/1; 2026-05-13 ASD 4f 52.40 H MT ft 26/28 · barn: same as last | fClm3000b → Clm 3000n1y | MUSTARD J DOUGLAS | Favorite |
| 2 | MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORMNELSON TYRONE | 2.5 | C | Rising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip2026-10-03 ASD 3f 38.80 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-06-01 ASD 5f 64.80 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | fClm5500 → Clm 3000n1y | GARDIPY TOM JR | Favorite |
| 1 | FLYING MISSPATTERSON JAVANIEL R | 20.0 | C | Same trip2026-07-25 ASD 5f 62.00 H MT ft 2/2; 2026-07-18 ASD 5f 62.60 H MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as last | fClm3000b → Clm 3000n1y | MAYBIN ROBERT | field |
| 3 | MAIBELLAMUNOZ LARRY | 25.0 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-06-26 ASD 3f 37.60 B MT ft 4/11; 2026-05-22 ASD 3f 37.60 B MT ft 3/15 · barn: same as last | fClm6000b → Clm 3000n1y | STANFORD MARIA | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEASD R2 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 3000n1y
- SHAPENo dedicated early speed — crawl likely; presser #4 and stalkers #5/#3 hold pace paths in A/B; closers #1/#2 need a target that may not materialize
- CHALKFavorite#5 PLAY FREE BIRD (ML 1.2) · solid · rising figs (68→72), class drop, sprint-to-sprint, best overall signal, but 1.2 is an automatic pass on price
- LEANWinner call#5 PLAY FREE BIRD · best figure trajectory, real class drop, pace path in A and B, solid chalk
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches two credible ready flags)
- PRICEno price — all overlays are chalk; #2 MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM carries the top last fig (75) and a real class drop from $5,500, but ML 2.5 qualifies as chalk by the shortest-line rule and is inside any fair-value range
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLA surprise early type (not in field) turns the crawl into a pace duel, shifting the race away from the presser and toward a closer — but there is no such type here, so the shape holds; #2's closing style needs fractions to open up
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition at post, rider changes after ingest
Why
Dirt sprint, $3,000 claiming with n1y restriction, five horses, high volatility — no dedicated early speed, all closers/pressers, cheap field where pace shape can randomize the result. The race has no dedicated early type, which likely produces a crawl that suits the presser (#4 MISS Z) or the two stalkers, but all three of the price-range horses are chalk, and the model finds no non-chalk overlay in the field. No horse carries two-plus ready flags outside the chalk group — #3 MAIBELLA's 21-point fig jump is suspicious (prior fig was 47, a collapsed line) and her trainer stats in the claiming drop category are brutal (0-for-6, –2.00 ROI).
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PLAY FREE BIRD | 1.2 | 37.5% | 38.1% | +0.6% | 0.31 | S | favoriteRising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 4 | MISS Z | 1.6 | 31.8% | 32.6% | +0.8% | 0.36 | P | favoriteTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 2 | MIDNIGHTCANDYSTORM | 2.5 | 23.6% | 23.3% | -0.3% | 0.21 | C | favoriteRising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip | — |
| 1 | FLYING MISS | 20.0 | 3.9% | 3.2% | -0.7% | -0.56 | C | Same trip | — |
| 3 | MAIBELLA | 25.0 | 3.2% | 2.8% | -0.4% | -0.32 | S | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |