WRD R2 · 2026-09-29

PASSD870y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

No dedicated early — closers need collapse

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#1PETE BE ROWDYP
C2#5JESS A BEARUU
C3#7VIVS FIRST KISSUU
C4#3EYE AM CORONAUU
C5#2SLAMDUNNKS
C6#4BROTHER TOMMYS
C7#8BP TRES CARTELS
C8#6SAY FAMOUS GOLDUSTC

A · Likely — expected flow

No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.

Helps #1 PETE BE ROWDY, #2 SLAMDUNNK, #4 BROTHER TOMMY, #8 BP TRES CARTEL · hurts —

B · Pressure — duel / honest

A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.

Helps #1 PETE BE ROWDY, #2 SLAMDUNNK, #4 BROTHER TOMMY, #8 BP TRES CARTEL · hurts —

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 SLAMDUNNK, #4 BROTHER TOMMY, #8 BP TRES CARTEL, #6 SAY FAMOUS GOLDUST).

Helps #2 SLAMDUNNK, #4 BROTHER TOMMY, #8 BP TRES CARTEL, #6 SAY FAMOUS GOLDUST · hurts —

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
2	SLAMDUNNKHUCKABY RONNIE	1.6	S	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-03 WRD 1f 11.20 H MT ft bullet 1/17; 2026-04-04 RP 3f 36.20 H MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last	MdSpWt → Alw 19200n2l	CAPPS STACEY	Favorite
4	BROTHER TOMMYGUTIERREZ GONZALO	4.0	S	Same trip2026-04-08 RP 3f 37.20 H MT ft 1/1; 2025-09-28 WRD 3f 36.60 H MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last	OC15000 → Alw 19200n2l	HOBBS HALEY N	field
8	BP TRES CARTELDELGADO MARIO	6.0	S	Same trip2026-09-15 WRD 3f 36.00 H MT ft 2/2; 2026-09-02 RP 3f 36.20 H MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last	Alw29240n3l → Alw 19200n2l	ESQUEDA ROBERT	field
1	PETE BE ROWDYBENN CORDARELTON J	6.0	P	Rising figsSharp workSame trip2026-09-22 WRD 2f 24.80 H MT ft 1/1; 2026-03-31 RP 3f 37.00 H MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as last	Alw18500n2l → Alw 19200n2l	WALKER GARY K	field
6	SAY FAMOUS GOLDUSTERNST B L	8.0	C	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-13 WRD 1f 12.80 H MT ft 13/13; 2026-02-27 STC 1f 12.00 B MT ft 9/19 · barn: same as last	Clm10000n2l → Alw 19200n2l	NICHOLS ANTHONY	field
5	JESS A BEARCANDANOSA BRYAN	10.0	U	Rising figsSharp workSame trip2026-09-15 WRD 3f 35.80 H MT ft 1/2; 2026-09-02 RP 3f 36.20 H MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last	Alw28500n2l → Alw 19200n2l	ESQUEDA ROBERT	field
7	VIVS FIRST KISSESCOBEDO EDWIN G	15.0	U	Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-06-18 FMT 3f 38.40 H MT ft 5/6; 2026-05-30 RP 3f 35.60 H MT ft 2/3 · barn: same as last	Alw27742n2l → Alw 19200n2l	CRAWFORD TYLER COLE	primed
3	EYE AM CORONACRUZ ROMAN	20.0	U	Barn changeSame trip2026-08-25 WRD 3f 35.20 H MT ft 1/2; 2026-04-04 SUN 1f 11.20 Hg MT ft 3/71 · barn: change vs ARMENDARIZ RICARDO G JR	fClm7500n2l → Alw 19200n2l	RUIZ JESUS RUBEN	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACEWRD R2 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 870y · Alw 19200n2l
SHAPENo early pace, crawl likely, presser #1 and rated S-types favored; closers light
CHALKFavorite#2 SLAMDUNNK · solid · rising figs 66→73→82, class climb, bullet work, no shape opposition
LEANWinner call#2 SLAMDUNNK
PRIMED#7 VIVS FIRST KISS (rising figs, 3rd start cycle) — path narrow; last big fig at 330y, 870y stamina unproven
PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlay clears)
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILLA surprise early type flips the shape and #2 gets hooked wide; #3 EYE AM CORONA's 91-fig peak is ancient but zSpeed tops the field — if that translates today, several beaten
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes

Why

Dirt 870y sprint, n2l allowance at WRD — moderate volatility given a field of Unknowns in the pace map and a wide class range from fClm to Alw.

No dedicated early speed means the crawl shape heavily favors the presser #1 and the S-types who can rate and kick, with chalk #2 SLAMDUNNK sitting on a sharp fig cycle (82 off 73 off 66, class climb from maiden) and a bullet work; no non-chalk overlays exist on the sheet.

VIVS FIRST KISS (#7, 15-1 ML) is the designated primed horse — rising figs (82, a 38-point jump from 44), third start of cycle — but the last 82 came at 330y, style is Unknown, and today is 870y with no demonstrated route stamina, so the path in A or B is thin.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#7 VIVS FIRST KISSML 15.0Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
2	SLAMDUNNK	1.6	32.5%	34.5%	+2.0%	0.24	S	favoriteRising figsSame trip	—
4	BROTHER TOMMY	4.0	16.9%	15.9%	-1.0%	-0.24	S	Same trip	—
8	BP TRES CARTEL	6.0	12.1%	11.6%	-0.5%	-0.16	S	Same trip	—
1	PETE BE ROWDY	6.0	12.1%	11.5%	-0.5%	-0.18	P	Rising figsSharp workSame trip	—
6	SAY FAMOUS GOLDUST	8.0	9.4%	9.0%	-0.4%	-0.18	C	Rising figsSame trip	—
5	JESS A BEAR	10.0	7.7%	7.4%	-0.3%	-0.14	U	Rising figsSharp workSame trip	—
7	VIVS FIRST KISS	15.0	5.3%	5.5%	+0.2%	0.13	U	Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip	—
3	EYE AM CORONA	20.0	4.0%	4.6%	+0.5%	0.51	U	Barn changeSame trip	—