FL R4 · 2026-10-06
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R4 · 2026-10-06 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2GRESHAMS LAWP
- C2#7LIGHT THE MIRAP
- C3#1PLAYINGON BROADWAYP
- C4#3MERMAID MAGICS
- C5#5TENACIOUS CHILDC
- C6#6HONORABLE BECKYC
- C7#4GRAMMA G GS
- C8#8KOZY BEEC
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #2 GRESHAMS LAW, #7 LIGHT THE MIRA, #1 PLAYINGON BROADWAY, #3 MERMAID MAGIC, #4 GRAMMA G G · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #2 GRESHAMS LAW, #7 LIGHT THE MIRA, #1 PLAYINGON BROADWAY, #3 MERMAID MAGIC, #4 GRAMMA G G · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 MERMAID MAGIC, #5 TENACIOUS CHILD, #6 HONORABLE BECKY, #4 GRAMMA G G, #8 KOZY BEE).
Helps #3 MERMAID MAGIC, #5 TENACIOUS CHILD, #6 HONORABLE BECKY, #4 GRAMMA G G, #8 KOZY BEE · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | GRESHAMS LAWCOA KEIBER J | 3.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-29 FL 4f 52.00 B MT ft 22/27; 2026-09-06 FL 5f 62.00 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | FERRARO MICHAEL | Favorite |
| 6 | HONORABLE BECKYFLORES JEREMIAS | 3.5 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-29 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft 6/27; 2026-09-19 FL 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/19 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | SHAFFER RICHARD | overlay |
| 1 | PLAYINGON BROADWAYNAVARRO KEVIN | 5.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-29 FL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 15/20; 2026-05-04 FL 4f 48.20 Bg MT ft 13/61 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | BUCKLEY JONATHAN B | overlay |
| 3 | MERMAID MAGICGUTIERREZ REYLU | 4.0 | S | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-29 BEL 4f 50.00 B TT gd 12/19; 2026-09-12 BEL 4f 50.60 B MT ft 141/195 · barn: same as last | fOC55000n1x → Alw 26500n2l | JIMENEZ JOSE L | field |
| 4 | GRAMMA G GWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE | 6.0 | S | —2026-09-09 FL 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 6/15; 2026-08-20 FL 4f 53.20 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | ENGLEHART CHRIS | field |
| 7 | LIGHT THE MIRACRUZ JOEL | 10.0 | P | 3rd start cycleSharp workSame trip2026-09-30 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft 6/18; 2026-09-22 FL 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | BAKER CHARLTON | field |
| 5 | TENACIOUS CHILDGOMEZ O | 8.0 | C | Rising figsBarn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-09-21 FL 4f 51.20 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-09-04 BEL 4f 48.80 B MT ft 35/58 · barn: change vs RICE LINDA | fClm11000n2lc → Alw 26500n2l | SELLS RACHEL | field |
| 8 | KOZY BEEFRET STEVEN | 10.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-18 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 12/32; 2026-07-21 FL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/22 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Alw 26500n2l | GUTTERSON KATLYNN | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R4 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1210y · Alw 26500n2l
- SHAPENo dedicated early speed — crawl likely; inside-rail bias favors posts 1-3; pressers inherit
- CHALKFavorite#2 GRESHAMS LAW · solid · best recent fig, post 2, 2nd-off-layoff ready, shape beneficiary
- LEANWinner call#2 GRESHAMS LAW · default winner in the crawl map on the bias
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse clears 2+ flags with a model overlay; #6 and #1 have single-type flags only)
- PRICE#1 PLAYINGON BROADWAY ML 5 (edge 0.020, signal 0.70, rising figs, post 1 inside-rail); #6 HONORABLE BECKY ML 3.5 (edge 0.022, 3rd-start-cycle, consistent 73s) — both shallow overlays
- PLAYPrice ticket#1 PLAYINGON BROADWAY · win · min 4-1 · (at shorter, pass)
- KILLChalk #2 clears cleanly and the board shortens #1 below 4-1; or a first-time early type emerges (chaos scenario C) that finds the lead uncontested and wire-walks
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint at FL in a no-early-speed field where all the pace projections land P or slower, meaning the race likely crawls and rewards tactical types sitting on the lead by default — moderate-to-high volatility given the shape ambiguity. Chalk #2 GRESHAMS LAW (ML 3) is the lone credible presser with the best recent fig (70), a clean post 2 on an inside-rail-biased track, and 2nd-off-layoff ready flags, making it both the shape beneficiary and the public horse — solid, not opposable. The two sheet overlays are #6 HONORABLE BECKY (ML 3.5, 3rd-start-cycle, back-to-back 73s, LP 77-79) and #1 PLAYINGON BROADWAY (ML 5, rising figs 62→67→72→73, finished well inside post 1 last out), both with A/B paths as pressers/stalkers in the crawl scenario. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | GRESHAMS LAW | 3.0 | 19.6% | 20.8% | +1.2% | 0.36 | P | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | HONORABLE BECKY | 3.5 | 17.4% | 19.6% | +2.2% | 0.60 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 1 | PLAYINGON BROADWAY | 5.0 | 13.1% | 15.1% | +2.0% | 0.70 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | MERMAID MAGIC | 4.0 | 15.7% | 15.1% | -0.6% | -0.03 | S | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | GRAMMA G G | 6.0 | 11.2% | 8.2% | -3.0% | -1.11 | S | — | |
| 7 | LIGHT THE MIRA | 10.0 | 7.1% | 7.5% | +0.4% | 0.34 | P | 3rd start cycleSharp workSame trip | — |
| 5 | TENACIOUS CHILD | 8.0 | 8.7% | 6.9% | -1.8% | -0.81 | C | Rising figsBarn changeTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 8 | KOZY BEE | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.8% | -0.3% | -0.04 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |