TDN R2 · 2026-10-06
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R2 · 2026-10-06 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #8 JACE
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#8JACEE
- C2#9STANLEYS STARSUU
- C3#1LUCYS FIRST SONGP
- C4#5ULTISSIMOS
- C5#7SON OF A G QS
- C6#2WATCH DUST FLYS
- C7#6CRICKLEWOODS
- C8#3TAP DANCING DANC
- C9#4CLASSIC DAVIDC
#8 JACE controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #8 JACE · hurts #5 ULTISSIMO, #7 SON OF A G Q, #2 WATCH DUST FLY, #6 CRICKLEWOOD, #3 TAP DANCING DAN, #4 CLASSIC DAVID
Someone presses #8 JACE. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #1 LUCYS FIRST SONG, #5 ULTISSIMO, #7 SON OF A G Q, #2 WATCH DUST FLY, #6 CRICKLEWOOD · hurts #8 JACE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 ULTISSIMO, #7 SON OF A G Q, #2 WATCH DUST FLY, #6 CRICKLEWOOD, #3 TAP DANCING DAN, #4 CLASSIC DAVID).
Helps #5 ULTISSIMO, #7 SON OF A G Q, #2 WATCH DUST FLY, #6 CRICKLEWOOD, #3 TAP DANCING DAN, #4 CLASSIC DAVID · hurts #8 JACE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | STANLEYS STARSKEISER CHELSEY | 2.0 | U | MSW → MCLLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-27 TDN 4f 51.40 B MT ft 4/4; 2026-08-20 TDN 4f 50.20 Bg MT ft 9/23 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md 12500 | KEISER DEBORAH | Favorite |
| 7 | SON OF A G QRIVERA L R | 3.0 | S | Rising figsMSW → MCLSame trip2026-06-20 BTP 5f 64.60 B MT ft 11/11; 2026-06-13 BTP 4f 51.60 B MT ft 39/40 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md 12500 | CLINE ROBERT C | field |
| 6 | CRICKLEWOODTERRAZA GERMAN | 3.5 | S | 2nd off layoffMSW → MCL2026-06-29 TDN 4f 48.80 B MT ft 3/18; 2026-04-27 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT ft 31/45 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md 12500 | SWEETING CRAIG | field |
| 8 | JACESKERRETT JEFFERSON | 6.0 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-08-08 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT gd 7/15; 2026-07-07 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/19 · barn: same as last | sMd12500 → Md 12500 | YODER SUSAN D | field |
| 3 | TAP DANCING DANBRACHO JOSE A | 8.0 | C | Rising figsMSW → MCLSame trip2026-08-08 TDN 4f 51.00 B MT gd 11/15; 2026-07-30 TDN 4f 51.20 B MT gd 22/32 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md 12500 | MEYERS SHANE | field |
| 1 | LUCYS FIRST SONGDIAZ ANGEL I | 15.0 | P | MSW → MCLLed lastSame trip2026-06-10 TDN 3f 38.20 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-04-14 TDN 4f 52.40 B MT ft 24/24 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md 12500 | LANGLEY JOSHUA | field |
| 5 | ULTISSIMOJIMENEZ S | 15.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-29 TDN 4f 52.00 B MT ft 7/9; 2026-08-20 TDN 4f 52.20 B MT ft 17/23 · barn: same as last | sMd12500 → Md 12500 | SHANYFELT VALERIE K | field |
| 4 | CLASSIC DAVIDCEDILLO MAURO | 20.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-28 TDN 4f 49.80 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-06-29 TDN 4f 50.60 B MT ft 14/18 · barn: same as last | sMd12500 → Md 12500 | LOPEZ JACINTO | field |
| 2 | WATCH DUST FLYSIMPSON JASON | 20.0 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-10 TDN 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft bullet 1/17; 2026-08-13 TDN 4f 49.00 B MT ft 7/19 · barn: same as last | sMd12500 → Md 12500 | LOUDIN-SMITH LORI | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R2 · 2026-10-06 · D 1320y Md 12500
- SHAPELone speed #8 JACE E; chalk #9 U projects C2 from post 9 — no confirmed presser; stalker wall behind; speed-biased surface (61.5% E/EP winners) favors the front but #8 tires consistently
- CHALKFavorite#9 STANLEYS STARS · usable-but-short · top zPace, best e1 in field, MSW→MCL drop, but "Clear lead; tired" last and 0% win rate in every MCL key angle
- LEANWinner call#9 STANLEYS STARS · best pace profile and class drop in a thin field; no horse has both a clear pace path and a rising-fig cycle to beat it
- PRIMED#2 WATCH DUST FLY — rising figs (+30), 2nd off layoff, bullet work 1/17; path exists in B/C only (stalker from post 2 into a field with no confirmed pace duel)
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay clears the model; #2 is primed on flags but model edge is -0.005
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#8 JACE steals a soft lead and wire-to-wires at a real price; live tote could reveal a second speed horse that manufactures the B-scenario duel and buries chalk
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint maiden claimer at TDN, moderate volatility from a thin speed map and low-fig field where one lone frontrunner controls the early flow. #9 STANLEYS STARS (2-1 ML) is chalk — a class dropper with the top early pace in the field and a clear lead profile, but a prior "Clear lead; tired" line and a bleak first-time MCL drop record make it usable-but-short rather than automatic; #2 WATCH DUST FLY carries three ready flags (rising figs +30, 2nd off 219-day layoff, bullet work 1/17) but the model is negative edge and the barn's 2nd-off-layoff sample is 4.76% wins with a -1.74 ROI — flags are real but the price engine says no overlay.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | STANLEYS STARS | 2.0 | 26.0% | 28.2% | +2.1% | 0.49 | U | favoriteMSW → MCLLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 7 | SON OF A G Q | 3.0 | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0% | 0.18 | S | Rising figsMSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 6 | CRICKLEWOOD | 3.5 | 17.4% | 17.6% | +0.2% | 0.23 | S | 2nd off layoffMSW → MCL | — |
| 8 | JACE | 6.0 | 11.2% | 11.5% | +0.3% | 0.29 | E | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | TAP DANCING DAN | 8.0 | 8.7% | 7.2% | -1.4% | -0.55 | C | Rising figsMSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 1 | LUCYS FIRST SONG | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.7% | -0.1% | 0.06 | P | MSW → MCLLed lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | ULTISSIMO | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.7% | -0.2% | -0.01 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 4 | CLASSIC DAVID | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | -0.28 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 2 | WATCH DUST FLY | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.2% | -0.5% | -0.41 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |