FL R5 · 2026-09-28
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R5 · 2026-09-28 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #1 THE BROWN EGG
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1THE BROWN EGGE
- C2#6BECKS DREAMERP
- C3#5FLAT CAPS
- C4#9ADDYSONS DREAMP
- C5#7FAST AMENDMENTC
- C6#8LUCEO NON UROS
- C7#2AMERICAN HALITEC
- C8#4CRUISING CATS
- C9#3DOHA DESERTS
#1 THE BROWN EGG controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #1 THE BROWN EGG · hurts #5 FLAT CAP, #7 FAST AMENDMENT, #8 LUCEO NON URO, #2 AMERICAN HALITE, #4 CRUISING CAT, #3 DOHA DESERT
Someone presses #1 THE BROWN EGG. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #6 BECKS DREAMER, #9 ADDYSONS DREAM, #5 FLAT CAP, #8 LUCEO NON URO, #4 CRUISING CAT, #3 DOHA DESERT · hurts #1 THE BROWN EGG
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 FLAT CAP, #7 FAST AMENDMENT, #8 LUCEO NON URO, #2 AMERICAN HALITE, #4 CRUISING CAT, #3 DOHA DESERT).
Helps #5 FLAT CAP, #7 FAST AMENDMENT, #8 LUCEO NON URO, #2 AMERICAN HALITE, #4 CRUISING CAT, #3 DOHA DESERT · hurts #1 THE BROWN EGG
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FAST AMENDMENTROHENA J M | 3.5 | C | Same trip2026-09-15 FL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/24; 2026-06-17 FL 5f 61.40 B MT ft bullet 1/11 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | FERRARO M ANTHONY | Favorite |
| 6 | BECKS DREAMERDAVILA M A JR | 4.0 | P | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-07-01 MTH 4f 50.20 B MT ft 11/18; 2026-04-24 BEL 3f 38.20 B TT ft 21/23 · barn: same as last | Md5000 → Clm 5000n2l | ACQUILANO JAMES | field |
| 2 | AMERICAN HALITEFRET STEVEN | 4.5 | C | Top last paceSame trip2026-07-21 FL 4f 50.00 B MT ft 15/22; 2026-06-19 FL 5f 63.20 B MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | LOAIZA ILMAR | field |
| 5 | FLAT CAPPEREZ L E | 5.0 | S | Class dropSame trip2026-09-19 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 8/19; 2026-06-19 FL 4f 52.20 B MT ft 19/20 · barn: same as last | Alw26430n2l → Clm 5000n2l | MERCED JOSE | field |
| 8 | LUCEO NON URORENGIFO WLADIMIR | 6.0 | S | Rising figsTag drop2026-09-15 FL 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft 2/24; 2026-08-12 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft 11/36 · barn: same as last | Clm6250n2l → Clm 5000n2l | GUTTERSON KATLYNN | field |
| 1 | THE BROWN EGGCRUZ JOEL | 8.0 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-08-26 FL 4f 49.40 B MT ft 13/17; 2026-08-04 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 13/31 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | REED LISA A | field |
| 9 | ADDYSONS DREAMBAILEY LAIRD O | 15.0 | P | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-08-15 FL 3f 37.00 B MT ft 2/5; 2026-06-09 FL 4f 49.40 B MT ft 7/19 · barn: same as last | Clm6250n2l → Clm 5000n2l | CLARKE MATTHEW | field |
| 3 | DOHA DESERTMULERO RAMON M | 12.0 | S | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-18 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-07-25 FL 4f 48.20 B MT ft 2/24 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | MERCED JOSE | field |
| 4 | CRUISING CATGOMEZ O | 20.0 | S | Rising figs2026-08-01 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 13/26; 2026-07-21 FL 3f 38.40 B MT ft 16/24 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | CLARKE MATTHEW | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R5 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1830y · Clm5000n2l
- SHAPELone speed #1 THE BROWN EGG with #6 BECKS DREAMER as the only pressuring threat; speed/outside bias strongly favors an early-running style, but the lone speed has a history of weakening
- CHALKFavorite#7 FAST AMENDMENT · opposable · closer (C-style) with no path in Scenario A, best fig came with trip trouble, last effort collapsed to 53, price too short for the risk
- LEANWinner call#6 BECKS DREAMER · rising figs, led last, top fig in field, outside post on a speed/outside-biased track, pace path in A and B
- PRIMEDnone (ingested sheet: no horse clears 2+ flags; BECKS DREAMER is one flag short of formal PRIMED)
- PRICEno non-chalk model overlays; BECKS DREAMER edge 0.009 does not clear overlay threshold — morning line 4-1 is thin but the shape argument is independent of model edge
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk overlay clears the threshold; BECKS DREAMER is the shape/trip play but the model does not confirm an overlay and the sheet recommendation is PASS
- KILL#1 THE BROWN EGG wire-to-wires on the speed bias and the closers never fire; or #7 FAST AMENDMENT gets a pace meltdown in C and inherits
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes day-of
Why
Dirt route, cheap $5k claiming (n2l), nine-starter field at Finger Lakes on a speed-biased outside track — moderate-to-high volatility given soft figures across the board. #1 THE BROWN EGG is lone speed in a shape that favors it (bias confirmed: 75% early-speed winners), but its figs have been declining and it weakens late in every recent start; chalk #7 FAST AMENDMENT is a closer at 3.5-1 whose best fig (73) came with trip trouble and whose last effort (fig 53) was a tired effort four wide — short price, C-only path in the A scenario, opposable. No horse reaches the 2+ flag PRIMED threshold per the ingested sheet, but #6 BECKS DREAMER shows rising figs (59→67), led last out at this exact trip, posts the top fig in the field last out, and moves from maiden into a claiming field where that maiden win gives her a class edge — she has a pace path in Scenario B if she clears to the lead or pressures, and outside post 6 on a speed/outside-biased track is exactly where she wants to be.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FAST AMENDMENT | 3.5 | 18.3% | 19.9% | +1.6% | 0.66 | C | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 6 | BECKS DREAMER | 4.0 | 16.5% | 17.4% | +0.9% | 0.54 | P | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 2 | AMERICAN HALITE | 4.5 | 15.0% | 15.9% | +0.9% | 0.57 | C | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 5 | FLAT CAP | 5.0 | 13.8% | 14.9% | +1.1% | 0.65 | S | Class dropSame trip | — |
| 8 | LUCEO NON URO | 6.0 | 11.8% | 11.8% | +0.0% | 0.34 | S | Rising figsTag drop | — |
| 1 | THE BROWN EGG | 8.0 | 9.2% | 9.0% | -0.1% | 0.28 | E | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 9 | ADDYSONS DREAM | 15.0 | 5.2% | 4.6% | -0.6% | -0.13 | P | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 3 | DOHA DESERT | 12.0 | 6.3% | 3.5% | -2.9% | -2.06 | S | Sharp workSame trip | — |
| 4 | CRUISING CAT | 20.0 | 3.9% | 2.9% | -1.0% | -0.84 | S | Rising figs | — |