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MNR R7 · 2026-09-29

BETD1760y1 price overlay(s)1 readyPLAY lookRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R7 · 2026-09-29 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Lone speed #8 MAGIC MOVER

Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#8MAGIC MOVERE
  2. C2#1SELF TAUGHTS
  3. C3#7BOLDNESSP
  4. C4#2KAKAOS
  5. C5#6KHOZANDOC
  6. C6#4PATRIARCHALC
  7. C7#3WORK HARDS
  8. C8#5TIZAWHITEFACECATS
  9. C9#9HE GOTS TO GOC
A · Likely — expected flow

#8 MAGIC MOVER controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.

Helps #8 MAGIC MOVER · hurts #1 SELF TAUGHT, #2 KAKAO, #6 KHOZANDO, #4 PATRIARCHAL, #3 WORK HARD, #5 TIZAWHITEFACECAT, #9 HE GOTS TO GO

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Someone presses #8 MAGIC MOVER. Soft-lead thesis dies.

Helps #7 BOLDNESS, #1 SELF TAUGHT, #2 KAKAO, #3 WORK HARD, #5 TIZAWHITEFACECAT · hurts #8 MAGIC MOVER

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 SELF TAUGHT, #2 KAKAO, #6 KHOZANDO, #4 PATRIARCHAL, #3 WORK HARD, #5 TIZAWHITEFACECAT, #9 HE GOTS TO GO).

Helps #1 SELF TAUGHT, #2 KAKAO, #6 KHOZANDO, #4 PATRIARCHAL, #3 WORK HARD, #5 TIZAWHITEFACECAT, #9 HE GOTS TO GO · hurts #8 MAGIC MOVER

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
4PATRIARCHALSKERRETT JEFFERSON2.0CSame trip2025-09-01 TDN 4f 51.60 B MT ft 15/15; 2025-08-12 TDN 4f 52.80 B MT ft 21/21 · barn: same as lastClm5000 → Clm 10000VECCHIO CARYNFavorite
1SELF TAUGHTGREENIDGE ELIJAH3.0SRising figsBarn changeTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-04-25 LRL 3f 38.00 B MT ft 16/19; 2026-03-15 LRL 3f 37.80 B MT ft 10/25 · barn: change vs SILVA JUAN PABLOClm4000c → Clm 10000POOLE JAMI Coverlay
2KAKAOGARCIA F5.0SSame trip2026-05-27 MNR 4f 49.40 B MT ft 5/10; 2026-05-18 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 6/17 · barn: same as lastROC 40-60 → Clm 10000VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOSfield
3WORK HARDGOMEZ ALEJANDRO6.0S2nd off layoffSame trip2026-08-30 MNR 3f 36.20 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-05-16 DEL 4f 53.40 B MT ft 75/75 · barn: same as lastOC12500 → Clm 10000DEMCZYK VIRGINIAfield
7BOLDNESSTAPARA BRANDON7.0PRising figsClass dropSame trip2026-08-23 MNR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-07-29 MNR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 6/27 · barn: same as lastAlw10000s → Clm 10000NORRIS STEPHANIprimed
5TIZAWHITEFACECATGONZALEZ KEVIN10.0SSame trip2026-04-24 MNR 4f 48.40 B MT ft 4/15; 2026-04-13 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 4/19 · barn: same as lastOC12500 → Clm 10000CLULEY DENNISfield
8MAGIC MOVERNEGRON LUIS12.0EClass dropSame trip2025-12-30 CT 3f 38.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2025-12-04 CT 4f 48.20 B MT ft 3/18 · barn: same as lastAlw10000s → Clm 10000BERNARDINI JAY Pfield
6KHOZANDOYARANGA Y20.0CHidden paceSame trip2026-09-14 TDN 4f 49.20 B MT ft 6/11; 2026-04-18 MNR 3f 36.80 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as lastROC 40-60 → Clm 10000FLETCHER JEFFfield
9HE GOTS TO GOBARRIOS RICARDO15.0CTag dropSame trip2026-05-24 LS 3f 38.60 B MT ft 28/42; 2026-04-28 LS 6f 74.40 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as lastClm12500b → Clm 10000DALTON MICHELLEfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACEMNR R7 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1760y Clm10000
  2. SHAPELone speed (#8 MAGIC MOVER) with moderate pressure risk; speed/inside bias favors E-EP; closers need a duel that isn't guaranteed
  3. CHALKFavorite#4 PATRIARCHAL · opposable · closer stepping up two class levels (Clm5000→Clm10000) on a speed-biased track with lone speed on the front end — shape and class move both argue against it
  4. LEANWinner call#8 MAGIC MOVER · lone speed on a speed-biased track; if it recovers from the 10d bounce effort and controls, closers are buried — but the recent wilt is a real concern
  5. PRIMED#7 BOLDNESS [rising_figs, class_drop] — presser with a path in Scenario B
  6. PRICE#1 SELF TAUGHT edge 0.032 (model overlay, top last fig 88, top LP 102, barn change, post 1 inner rail bias)
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#7 BOLDNESS · win · minimum 6-1 (at less, pass — model shows no overlay and path requires Scenario B)
  8. KILL#8 MAGIC MOVER clears cleanly and wire-to-wires; chalk PATRIARCHAL fires a monster closer move if the pace melts; #7 draws a pace-less trip from post 7 wide
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest

Why

Dirt route claiming at MNR, moderate volatility — lone speed map heavily favors early style on a track where E/EP wins 64% and rail posts dominate, but the chalk (#4 PATRIARCHAL) is a deep closer stepping up sharply in class. #8 MAGIC MOVER holds lone speed from post 8 yet just wilted badly ten days ago, and #4's closer profile needs a duel that may never materialize. #7 BOLDNESS is the one primed price horse — rising figs (79→82), genuine class drop from ALW into CLM, presser style with a path in Scenario B, and a recent work (1/2) from a barn with a solid TJ ROI; if someone presses #8, Boldness sits third, hits the turn with horse, and fires.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#1 SELF TAUGHT+3.2%ML 3.0Rising figsBarn changeTop last figTop last paceSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#7 BOLDNESSML 7.0Rising figsClass dropSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
4PATRIARCHAL2.025.7%27.8%+2.1%0.76CfavoriteSame trip—
1SELF TAUGHT3.019.3%22.5%+3.2%1.07SRising figsBarn changeTop last figTop last paceSame trip—
2KAKAO5.012.9%13.8%+1.0%0.74SSame trip—
3WORK HARD6.011.0%10.3%-0.7%0.18S2nd off layoffSame trip—
7BOLDNESS7.09.6%9.5%-0.1%0.39PRising figsClass dropSame trip—
5TIZAWHITEFACECAT10.07.0%6.3%-0.8%-0.01SSame trip—
8MAGIC MOVER12.05.9%3.5%-2.4%-1.66EClass dropSame trip—
6KHOZANDO20.03.7%3.3%-0.3%0.06CHidden paceSame trip—
9HE GOTS TO GO15.04.8%2.9%-1.9%-1.54CTag dropSame trip—