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PRX R9 · 2026-09-29

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#1 vs #6)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#1ALWAYS IN PLAYEP
  2. C2#10SPASTIC BIDP
  3. C3#3TOO MANY MIKESS
  4. C4#7RANTING AND RAVINGP
  5. C5#2BLAME EVES
  6. C6#5SAINT GRACEC
  7. C7#6DREAMING OF BELLAEP
  8. C8#8ELEANOR RIGBYC
  9. C9#9CATRINA ZARC
  10. C10#4WONDERFULVENEZUELAC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #1 ALWAYS IN PLAY and #6 DREAMING OF BELLA. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #10 SPASTIC BID, #7 RANTING AND RAVING, #3 TOO MANY MIKES, #2 BLAME EVE · hurts #1 ALWAYS IN PLAY, #6 DREAMING OF BELLA

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #1 ALWAYS IN PLAY and #6 DREAMING OF BELLA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #10 SPASTIC BID, #7 RANTING AND RAVING, #3 TOO MANY MIKES, #2 BLAME EVE · hurts #1 ALWAYS IN PLAY, #6 DREAMING OF BELLA

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 TOO MANY MIKES, #2 BLAME EVE, #5 SAINT GRACE, #8 ELEANOR RIGBY, #9 CATRINA ZAR, #4 WONDERFULVENEZUELA).

Helps #3 TOO MANY MIKES, #2 BLAME EVE, #5 SAINT GRACE, #8 ELEANOR RIGBY, #9 CATRINA ZAR, #4 WONDERFULVENEZUELA · hurts #1 ALWAYS IN PLAY, #6 DREAMING OF BELLA

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
10SPASTIC BIDSILVERA RUBEN2.5PRising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip2026-09-16 PRX 5f 61.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-07-08 PRX 4f 49.00 B MT ft 19/52 · barn: same as lastfOC16000 → Clm 7500n2lGUERRERO J CARLOSFavorite
2BLAME EVESANCHEZ MYCHEL J3.0S3rd start cycleBarn changeSame trip2026-09-19 PRX 4f 49.40 B MT ft 13/29; 2026-08-19 PRX 4f 50.80 B MT ft 56/64 · barn: change vs GUERRERO J CARLOSfMd10000c → Clm 7500n2lPINO MICHAEL Voverlay
3TOO MANY MIKESGOMEZ JOSE ANTONIO3.5S3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-08-09 MTH 3f 36.40 B MT ft 5/34; 2026-06-16 PRX 4f 49.00 B MT ft 12/33 · barn: same as lastfClm25000b → Clm 7500n2lBREEN KELLY Jfield
7RANTING AND RAVINGOCASIO LUIS M6.0PTag dropSame trip2026-08-08 PRX 4f 49.20 B MT gd 53/106; 2026-06-26 PRX 4f 48.60 B MT ft 16/54 · barn: same as lastfClm12500n2l → Clm 7500n2lSOTO- MARTINEZ ELLIOTTfield
5SAINT GRACEHADDOCK DEXTER8.0CRising figs2nd off layoff2026-09-05 PRX 4f 50.80 B MT ft 67/74; 2026-08-29 PRX 4f 48.20 B MT ft 17/44 · barn: same as lastfClm7500n2l → Clm 7500n2lRODRIGUEZ MIGUEL Aprimed
1ALWAYS IN PLAYRIOS JESUS M8.0EPTag dropSame trip2026-08-08 PRX 4f 47.40 B MT gd 10/106; 2026-07-08 PRX 4f 48.20 B MT ft 7/52 · barn: same as lastfClm12500n2l → Clm 7500n2lSANTAELLA-CALDERON JOSE Mfield
6DREAMING OF BELLASANCHEZ MAGGLIO10.0EPRising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip2026-09-18 PRX 5f 62.00 B MT ft 5/8; 2026-09-09 PRX 4f 49.00 B MT ft 18/39 · barn: same as lastfClm10000n2l → Clm 7500n2lMONTOYA MARYAprimed
8ELEANOR RIGBYBOWMAN ADAM15.0C2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-25 PRX 4f 49.80 B MT ft 18/24; 2026-08-22 PRX 4f 49.80 B MT ft 38/64 · barn: same as lastfOC16000 → Clm 7500n2lBETANCOURT ELI JRfield
9CATRINA ZARRIVERA KENDRY20.0CRising figsHidden paceTop last pace2026-08-10 PRX 4f 49.60 B MT ft 33/52; 2026-06-23 MNR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 9/17 · barn: same as lastfClm7500n2l → Clm 7500n2lPEREZ RUPERTO Aprimed
4WONDERFULVENEZUELAORELLANA SEBASTIAN20.0CRising figs2nd off layoff2026-08-19 PRX 4f 49.40 B MT ft 40/64; 2026-07-03 PRX 4f 51.20 B MT ft 13/15 · barn: same as lastfClm7500b → Clm 7500n2lGALLIMORE TREVORprimed

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACEPRX R9 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1830y · Clm 7500n2l
  2. SHAPETwo-EP duel (#1 vs #6) sets honest pace; stalkers and closers
  3. CHALKFavorite#10 SPASTIC BID · solid · top fig (71), 3rd-start cycle, stalking
  4. LEANWinner call#10 SPASTIC BID · best fig, cleanest pace path, priced at 2.5
  5. PRIMED#2 BLAME EVE (3rd cycle, barn change, route trip); #5 SAINT GRACE
  6. PRICE#2 BLAME EVE · edge 0.025 · only flagged non-chalk overlay
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#2 BLAME EVE · minimum 5-1 · WIN — at ML 3 this is PASS;
  8. KILLChalk fires clean off the duel and wire-to-wire from the stalk;
  9. MISSINGLive tote (ML 3 on #2 is not a ticket price), official scratches,

Why

Dirt two-turn route at PRX in a cheap n2l claimer — ten-horse field, moderate-to-high volatility with a crowded closer contingent and two speed types setting up a likely honest pace. The pace map pits #1 ALWAYS IN PLAY against #6 DREAMING OF BELLA for the lead; both have histories of folding under pressure, and #10 SPASTIC BID (chalk, 2.5 ML) sits third off the pace with the top fig in the field and a clean stalking path in scenarios A and B. #2 BLAME EVE (3 ML, 3rd-start cycle, barn change to Pino, route experience) is the only flagged price overlay with a stalking style and a clear beneficiary path if the duel materializes, but the fig line (67-65-67) is flat and uninspiring.

```
        inherit — speed bias noted but field pace likely neutralizes it;
        posts 8+ show 0% wins in bias sample (hurts #8, #9)
        path directly behind the duel — clear beneficiary in A and B
        (rising figs, 2nd off layoff); #9 CATRINA ZAR (rising figs, hidden
        LP 87, top late pace — but sprint-to-route and post 9 are concerns)
        needs tote confirmation of a live overlay number before play
        #2 figs are flat and the barn-change/3rd-cycle thesis requires
        the pace to truly collapse
         weather/track variant, rider changes post-ingest
```

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#2 BLAME EVE+2.5%ML 3.03rd start cycleBarn changeSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#5 SAINT GRACEML 8.0Rising figs2nd off layoff
#6 DREAMING OF BELLAML 10.0Rising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip
#9 CATRINA ZARML 20.0Rising figsHidden paceTop last pace
#4 WONDERFULVENEZUELAML 20.0Rising figs2nd off layoff

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
10SPASTIC BID2.520.8%22.8%+2.0%0.67PfavoriteRising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip—
2BLAME EVE3.018.2%20.7%+2.5%0.81S3rd start cycleBarn changeSame trip—
3TOO MANY MIKES3.516.2%16.8%+0.6%0.44S3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip—
7RANTING AND RAVING6.010.4%9.9%-0.6%0.08PTag dropSame trip—
5SAINT GRACE8.08.1%8.8%+0.7%0.63CRising figs2nd off layoff—
1ALWAYS IN PLAY8.08.1%6.4%-1.7%-0.67EPTag dropSame trip—
6DREAMING OF BELLA10.06.6%4.8%-1.8%-0.95EPRising figsTrouble lastTag dropSame trip—
8ELEANOR RIGBY15.04.6%4.0%-0.6%-0.27C2nd off layoffSame trip—
9CATRINA ZAR20.03.5%3.2%-0.2%0.02CRising figsHidden paceTop last pace—
4WONDERFULVENEZUELA20.03.5%2.7%-0.8%-0.76CRising figs2nd off layoff—