FE R7 · 2026-09-29
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#8 #3 #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#8HOT OMELETE
- C2#3ALTA CALIBREEP
- C3#6KNOTTY AND NICEEP
- C4#5GLITTER BAYP
- C5#2COACH CALEYS
- C6#7MI TORMENTAC
- C7#4CANDID CANDACEC
- C8#1DREAMS AND SCHEMESC
Honest pace among #8 HOT OMELET and #3 ALTA CALIBRE and #6 KNOTTY AND NICE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #5 GLITTER BAY, #2 COACH CALEY · hurts #8 HOT OMELET, #3 ALTA CALIBRE, #6 KNOTTY AND NICE
Pressure: #8 HOT OMELET and #3 ALTA CALIBRE and #6 KNOTTY AND NICE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #5 GLITTER BAY, #2 COACH CALEY · hurts #8 HOT OMELET, #3 ALTA CALIBRE, #6 KNOTTY AND NICE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 COACH CALEY, #7 MI TORMENTA, #4 CANDID CANDACE, #1 DREAMS AND SCHEMES).
Helps #2 COACH CALEY, #7 MI TORMENTA, #4 CANDID CANDACE, #1 DREAMS AND SCHEMES · hurts #8 HOT OMELET, #3 ALTA CALIBRE, #6 KNOTTY AND NICE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ALTA CALIBRECONTRERAS LUIS | 2.5 | EP | Top last paceSame trip2026-08-04 FE 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-07-27 FE 4f 48.40 B MT ft 5/22 · barn: same as last | fClm8000b → Clm 8000 | ALBU KEN | Favorite |
| 1 | DREAMS AND SCHEMESALDERSON JEFFREY IAN | 2.0 | C | Same trip2026-06-05 WO 5f 62.00 B MT ft 8/14; 2026-05-30 WO 5f 62.40 B MT ft 34/46 · barn: same as last | fClm8000b → Clm 8000 | NEUBAUER MICHAELA | Favorite |
| 6 | KNOTTY AND NICEJOHNSON KIRK | 3.5 | EP | Led last2026-08-30 FE 3f 37.60 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-08-04 FE 3f 36.80 B MT ft 3/9 · barn: same as last | frMolsonCup32k → Clm 8000 | ROBILLARD JULIE | field |
| 8 | HOT OMELETDAVID MICHAEL | 4.0 | E | —2026-09-22 FE 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/12; 2026-08-01 FE 4f 48.60 B MT ft 2/3 · barn: same as last | frMolsonCup32k → Clm 8000 | ROBILLARD JOSH | field |
| 2 | COACH CALEYGASKIN DA-SEAN ZAVIER | 5.0 | S | Rising figs2026-08-11 FE 3f 37.60 B MT gd 1/3; 2026-06-29 FE 4f 50.20 B MT ft 14/15 · barn: same as last | fClm6250b → Clm 8000 | ROBILLARD JULIE | field |
| 4 | CANDID CANDACESANCHEZ ALEXIS | 8.0 | C | —2026-09-20 FE 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/6; 2026-07-27 FE 4f 49.80 B MT ft 14/22 · barn: same as last | frMolsonCup32k → Clm 8000 | CATHCART STEVEN | field |
| 5 | GLITTER BAYMAILHOT P | 12.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-29 FE 4f 49.80 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-08-17 FE 3f 38.00 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: same as last | fClm8000b → Clm 8000 | CURTO BEVERLY JEANETTE | field |
| 7 | MI TORMENTASALLES LEO | 20.0 | C | Same trip2026-06-21 FE 3f 38.20 B MT ft 4/4; 2026-04-12 WO 4f 50.40 B MT ft 105/134 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 8000 | HOAD LINDSAY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFE R7 · 2026-09-29 · T/1540y/Clm8000
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#8/#3/#6) sets up an honest-to-meltdown pace; presser/stalker styles favored by the bias and the scenario tree
- CHALKFavorite#3 ALTA CALIBRE (2.5) and #1 DREAMS AND SCHEMES (2.0) · both short · #3 solid on pace/class metrics; #1 opposable on negative zPace and closer style in a field with no guaranteed pace collapse
- LEANWinner call#3 ALTA CALIBRE · top zPace, inside-favoring post 3, led last sprint and was caught late — repeat with a honest pace burning the wider speed
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse clears 2+ ready flags)
- PRICEno non-chalk overlay (sheet rec PASS confirmed)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#3 breaks slowly or gets hooked hard by #8/#6 and flattens; any off-turf call voids the map entirely
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going condition / weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Turf sprint claiming at FE over 1540y, small field of eight with the bias favoring inside posts and presser/stalker styles — moderate-to-high volatility given the wall of early speed likely to melt each other. Three need-the-lead types (#8, #3, #6) set up a probable duel that should benefit the inside stalkers, with chalk #3 ALTA CALIBRE (EP, post 3, top zPace, model overlay) the most likely winner but at 5-2 it is untouchable as a price; #1 DREAMS AND SCHEMES is the co-chalk at 2-1 with no model edge and a negative zPace that is hard to trust in this setup. No horse clears the two-flag primed threshold with a non-chalk price: #2 COACH CALEY has one rising-fig flag (69 over 61, +8) and a stalker path from post 2 that fits both Scenario A and B, but it is a class-up move and the single flag plus a 5-1 ML that is not a model overlay keeps it off the PRIMED line. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ALTA CALIBRE | 2.5 | 19.8% | 25.9% | +6.1% | 1.30 | EP | favoriteTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | DREAMS AND SCHEMES | 2.0 | 23.1% | 22.7% | -0.4% | 0.15 | C | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 6 | KNOTTY AND NICE | 3.5 | 15.4% | 14.3% | -1.1% | -0.07 | EP | Led last | — |
| 8 | HOT OMELET | 4.0 | 13.9% | 11.9% | -1.9% | -0.38 | E | — | |
| 2 | COACH CALEY | 5.0 | 11.5% | 10.8% | -0.8% | -0.06 | S | Rising figs | — |
| 4 | CANDID CANDACE | 8.0 | 7.7% | 6.8% | -0.9% | -0.27 | C | — | |
| 5 | GLITTER BAY | 12.0 | 5.3% | 4.9% | -0.5% | -0.15 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 7 | MI TORMENTA | 20.0 | 3.3% | 2.7% | -0.6% | -0.52 | C | Same trip | — |