LRL R4 · 2026-09-27
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find LRL R4 · 2026-09-27 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6PHANTOM GOLDUU
- C2#10RATTLEJACKUU
- C3#15RED SEAS
- C4#13LONG STRAWC
- C5#3TARGET MARKETC
- C6#8MOONLIT FROSTC
- C7#14ALL FRUITS RIPES
- C8#9BIG BOY LUKAC
- C9#1FIERY DEBUTC
- C10#16PLENTY ON TAPC
- C11#12CALL ME A TAXIS
- C12#7NOSTROMOC
- C13#5TEDDY PC
- C14#11RIVER REVIVALC
- C15#2CLASSIC MARTINIC
- C16#4BEAUTIFUL QUALITYC
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #15 RED SEA, #14 ALL FRUITS RIPE, #12 CALL ME A TAXI · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #15 RED SEA, #14 ALL FRUITS RIPE, #12 CALL ME A TAXI · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#15 RED SEA, #13 LONG STRAW, #3 TARGET MARKET, #8 MOONLIT FROST, #14 ALL FRUITS RIPE, #9 BIG BOY LUKA, #1 FIERY DEBUT, #16 PLENTY ON TAP, #12 CALL ME A TAXI, #7 NOSTROMO, #5 TEDDY P, #11 RIVER REVIVAL, #2 CLASSIC MARTINI, #4 BEAUTIFUL QUALITY).
Helps #15 RED SEA, #13 LONG STRAW, #3 TARGET MARKET, #8 MOONLIT FROST, #14 ALL FRUITS RIPE, #9 BIG BOY LUKA, #1 FIERY DEBUT, #16 PLENTY ON TAP, #12 CALL ME A TAXI, #7 NOSTROMO, #5 TEDDY P, #11 RIVER REVIVAL, #2 CLASSIC MARTINI, #4 BEAUTIFUL QUALITY · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TARGET MARKETRUIZ JORGE | 2.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropSharp workTop last figSame trip2026-09-19 CNS 4f 51.20 B T gd bullet 1/6; 2026-09-11 CNS 4f 51.60 B T fm 5/8 · barn: same as last | Md40000 → Md 16000 | DUARTE JORGE JR | Favorite |
| 15 | RED SEAKARAMANOS H A | 2.5 | S | Same trip2026-07-20 LRL 3f 37.40 B MT ft 4/11; 2026-06-20 LRL 4f 49.80 B MT ft 19/34 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | ALLEN A FERRIS III | Favorite |
| 16 | PLENTY ON TAPRUIZ JORGE | 3.0 | C | Same trip2026-08-22 FAI 5f 63.40 B TT ft 11/11; 2026-08-07 FAI 5f 63.40 B MT ft 5/5 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | WOOLLEY TIM | field |
| 9 | BIG BOY LUKAVILLALOBOS ISMERIO | 6.0 | C | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-08-23 CNL 3f 37.60 B MT ft 12/22; 2026-08-02 CNL 5f 62.40 B MT ft 3/6 · barn: change vs AGUIRRE ANTHONY JR | rMd16000 → Md 16000 | AGUIRRE ANTHONY | field |
| 4 | BEAUTIFUL QUALITYSANCHEZ MYCHEL J | 5.0 | C | Trouble lastSame trip2026-07-01 WLN 4f 47.00 B MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-06-20 WLN 4f 47.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5 · barn: same as last | rMd16000 → Md 16000 | COONEY SUSAN S | field |
| 1 | FIERY DEBUTSCAMPTON BRITTANY | 8.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-02 LRL 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 29/70; 2026-06-28 LRL 4f 50.00 B MT gd 14/18 · barn: same as last | rMd16000 → Md 16000 | MCCUE ELIZABETH | field |
| 14 | ALL FRUITS RIPEVARGAS JOSE E | 8.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-11 LRL 5f 63.00 B MT ft 3/5; 2026-06-19 LRL 4f 50.80 B MT ft 11/11 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | SMITH VALRIE | field |
| 7 | NOSTROMOKINGSLEY TAYLOR | 10.0 | C | MSW → MCLSame trip2026-07-19 FAI 5f 62.60 B TT ft 7/11; 2026-06-07 FAI 4f 50.20 B TT ft 14/17 · barn: same as last | rMdSpWt → Md 16000 | HODSDON DANIELLE | field |
| 8 | MOONLIT FROSTRODRIGUEZ JAMIE | 12.0 | C | 3rd start cycle2026-09-19 LRL 4f 49.60 B MT ft 40/69; 2026-08-09 LRL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 36/85 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | DILODOVICO DAMON R | field |
| 5 | TEDDY PGOMEZ KEVIN | 12.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycle2026-09-18 LRL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 6/11; 2026-08-26 LRL 5f 61.40 H MT ft 3/18 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | SMITH HAMILTON A | primed |
| 10 | RATTLEJACKASHTON GAVIN | 15.0 | U | —2026-09-17 FAI 3f 39.80 Bg MT ft 2/3; 2026-09-11 FAI 4f 51.40 B TT ft 3/6 · barn: BENTLEY FENNEKA (no last-line barn) | — → Md 16000 | BENTLEY FENNEKA | field |
| 12 | CALL ME A TAXILOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO | 12.0 | S | Tag dropSharp workSame trip2026-09-22 LRL 4f 50.00 B MT my 1/1; 2026-09-06 LRL 4f 49.60 B MT ft 21/48 · barn: same as last | Md35000 → Md 16000 | CAPUANO PHILLIP | field |
| 13 | LONG STRAWCORUJO LEONARDO | 20.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-19 LRL 4f 54.00 B D T fm 4/8; 2026-05-22 LRL 4f 51.00 B MT my 4/4 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | VICK TIMOTHY M | field |
| 6 | PHANTOM GOLDBRICENO LEANDRO M | 15.0 | U | Top last pace2026-09-18 LRL 4f 49.60 B MT ft 3/11; 2026-09-12 LRL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 11/49 · barn: same as last | Md16000 → Md 16000 | MILOSEVIC MILAN | field |
| 2 | CLASSIC MARTINIEBOW WARREN III | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffBarn changeSame trip2026-09-20 LRL 5f 64.00 B MT ft 14/18; 2026-09-13 LRL 4f 51.00 B MT my 27/33 · barn: change vs HESTER LEANNE | Md16000 → Md 16000 | DELGADO ALBERTO | primed |
| 11 | RIVER REVIVALSANCHEZ MAGGLIO | 30.0 | C | Same trip2026-08-04 WLN 5f 62.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-07-29 LRL 4f 51.20 Bg MT gd 8/12 · barn: same as last | rMd16000 → Md 16000 | COONEY SUSAN S | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACELRL R4 · 2026-09-27 · Turf 1870y · Md 16000 · field 16
- SHAPENo dedicated early; crawl likely; all-closer field favors stalkers #15/#14 in A/B — extreme volatility
- CHALKFavorite#3 TARGET MARKET · solid · top fig (78), real class drop, bullet work, same-trip route — rightful favorite, no overlay
- LEANWinner call#3 TARGET MARKET · best fig, best class angle, cleanest pace path for a stalker in a slow field
- PRIMED#5 TEDDY P [rising_figs, third_start_cycle]; #2 CLASSIC MARTINI [rising_figs, second_off_layoff, barn_change]
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlays exist in this field
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLOff-turf switch; surprise early type scrambles the crawl and collapses #3's trip; #5 needs pace to close into and there is none
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/going condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Turf maiden-claimer at 1870y with a 16-horse closer-heavy field and no identified early speed, making this a slow-pace crawl where one-run closers may never get a target — extreme volatility. Both chalks (#3 TARGET MARKET at 2-1, top fig/big class drop/bullet work, and #15 RED SEA at 5-2, same-level stalker with flat form) populate a no-pace map that benefits stalkers and trips in scenarios A and B, with #3 the stronger horse but at a price that demands no overlay. The only primed non-chalk is #5 TEDDY P (rising figs 62→66, third start of cycle, stretch-out into a route that the trainer fires at 20% with a 1.24 ROI in sprint-sprint-route splits), but the model shows no overlay at 12-1 ML and the shape is all-closers with no pace to close into. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TARGET MARKET | 2.0 | 16.9% | 20.2% | +3.3% | 1.07 | C | favoriteRising figsTag dropSharp workTop last figSame trip | — |
| 15 | RED SEA | 2.5 | 14.5% | 15.5% | +1.0% | 0.62 | S | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 16 | PLENTY ON TAP | 3.0 | 12.7% | 13.6% | +0.9% | 0.63 | C | Same trip | — |
| 9 | BIG BOY LUKA | 6.0 | 7.2% | 7.4% | +0.2% | 0.44 | C | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 4 | BEAUTIFUL QUALITY | 5.0 | 8.4% | 7.1% | -1.3% | -0.33 | C | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | FIERY DEBUT | 8.0 | 5.6% | 6.0% | +0.3% | 0.59 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 14 | ALL FRUITS RIPE | 8.0 | 5.6% | 5.8% | +0.2% | 0.50 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 7 | NOSTROMO | 10.0 | 4.6% | 4.1% | -0.5% | -0.12 | C | MSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 8 | MOONLIT FROST | 12.0 | 3.9% | 3.6% | -0.3% | 0.02 | C | 3rd start cycle | — |
| 5 | TEDDY P | 12.0 | 3.9% | 3.4% | -0.5% | -0.18 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycle | — |
| 10 | RATTLEJACK | 15.0 | 3.2% | 2.9% | -0.3% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 12 | CALL ME A TAXI | 12.0 | 3.9% | 2.6% | -1.3% | -1.21 | S | Tag dropSharp workSame trip | — |
| 13 | LONG STRAW | 20.0 | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 0.22 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | PHANTOM GOLD | 15.0 | 3.2% | 2.3% | -0.8% | -0.88 | U | Top last pace | — |
| 2 | CLASSIC MARTINI | 20.0 | 2.4% | 1.9% | -0.5% | -0.52 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 11 | RIVER REVIVAL | 30.0 | 1.6% | 1.2% | -0.4% | -0.85 | C | Same trip | — |