FP R3 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#1 #3 #4)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1NAOMI AN RUTHE
- C2#3CATATONICEP
- C3#4JUST SQUEEZING BYE
- C4#6BETTY PACKP
- C5#5HANABIP
- C6#2WILDWOOD TRIPLES
Honest pace among #1 NAOMI AN RUTH and #3 CATATONIC and #4 JUST SQUEEZING BY. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 BETTY PACK, #5 HANABI, #2 WILDWOOD TRIPLE · hurts #1 NAOMI AN RUTH, #3 CATATONIC, #4 JUST SQUEEZING BY
Pressure: #1 NAOMI AN RUTH and #3 CATATONIC and #4 JUST SQUEEZING BY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 BETTY PACK, #5 HANABI, #2 WILDWOOD TRIPLE · hurts #1 NAOMI AN RUTH, #3 CATATONIC, #4 JUST SQUEEZING BY
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 WILDWOOD TRIPLE).
Helps #2 WILDWOOD TRIPLE · hurts #1 NAOMI AN RUTH, #3 CATATONIC, #4 JUST SQUEEZING BY
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CATATONICRODRIGUEZ WALTER A | 0.8 | EP | Tag dropSame trip2026-07-19 HAW 4f 52.00 B MT ft 30/32; 2026-07-08 HAW 4f 47.40 B MT ft 5/25 · barn: same as last | fClm20000n2l → Clm 10000n3l | RIVELLI LARRY | Favorite |
| 6 | BETTY PACKLARA VICTOR | 3.0 | P | Same trip2026-09-22 FP 3f 36.20 B MT ft bullet 1/12; 2026-09-09 FP 3f 36.60 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as last | fOC10000n1x → Clm 10000n3l | WATKINS JAMES M | field |
| 2 | WILDWOOD TRIPLESANTIAGO VICTOR | 3.5 | S | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-08-14 FP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 11/16; 2026-07-29 FP 5f 63.20 B MT ft 3/4 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n3l → Clm 10000n3l | BECKER SCOTT | field |
| 4 | JUST SQUEEZING BYWALES T | 9.0 | E | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip2026-09-29 FP 3f 38.80 B MT ft 7/10; 2026-08-13 FP 3f 37.80 B MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as last | fOC20000n2l → Clm 10000n3l | WATKINS JAMES M | primed |
| 5 | HANABIMARTINEZ BRODY | 10.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-29 FP 4f 53.60 B MT ft 27/27; 2026-07-15 FP 4f 54.00 B MT ft 18/18 · barn: same as last | fClm6250n2l → Clm 10000n3l | COONTZ ARTHUR A | field |
| 1 | NAOMI AN RUTHTAVARES JAVIER | 20.0 | E | 2nd off layoffTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-07 FP 5f 61.20 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-08-14 FP 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/8 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n3l → Clm 10000n3l | NESBITT AMY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFP R3 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1210y · Clm 10000 n3l
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#1 #3 #4) — duel/meltdown likely; stalkers/pressers (#5 #6 #2) get the pace setup in A and B
- CHALKFavorite#3 CATATONIC · short (0.8 ML) · best speed signal (zSpeed 1.16, zPace 0.99), class drop is real, EP style can sit second if the two E-types battle; solid enough, just unplayable at the price
- LEANWinner call#3 CATATONIC · rightful winner given the speed figures and class advantage; survives an honest pace if it doesn't get sucked into a war from post 3
- PRIMED#4 JUST SQUEEZING BY (rising figs +9, trouble/led last) — pace path exists only if it clears the two other E-types; crowded map makes the path fragile
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlays in the brief; sheet rec PASS
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#1 or #4 hooks #3 into a war it can't survive; live tote shifts; late scratch alters the pace map entirely
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition, rider changes
Why
Dirty sprint claiming field of six at Fair Grounds, wall of speed up front makes this a pressure race with real pace collapse risk — moderate-to-high volatility in a thin, cheap field. Three E/EP types (#1, #3, #4) figure to hook early, which sets up the P/S horses behind them, but the chalk (#3 CATATONIC) is the class-dropper with the best speed signal and should survive if the pace is honest rather than suicidal. #4 JUST SQUEEZING BY carries two primed flags (rising figs +9, led last under steady urging) but is a confirmed E who needs the lead in a race where two other early types (#1, #3) will be fighting for it — path exists only if it clears cleanly, which at 9-1 ML is a price worth noting, though its model edge is negative and the class drop from OC20000 into a $10K claimer is a bullish send signal clouded by the crowded pace map; no price overlay is printed. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CATATONIC | 0.8 | 43.9% | 49.3% | +5.5% | 0.80 | EP | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 6 | BETTY PACK | 3.0 | 19.7% | 19.2% | -0.6% | 0.21 | P | Same trip | — |
| 2 | WILDWOOD TRIPLE | 3.5 | 17.5% | 15.1% | -2.4% | -0.28 | S | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip | — |
| 4 | JUST SQUEEZING BY | 9.0 | 7.9% | 7.1% | -0.8% | -0.12 | E | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | HANABI | 10.0 | 7.2% | 6.1% | -1.1% | -0.31 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | NAOMI AN RUTH | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.2% | -0.5% | -0.30 | E | 2nd off layoffTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |