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IND R1 · 2026-09-28

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#6 vs #5)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#6LUNA DIVAEP
  2. C2#5FOCACCIAEP
  3. C3#2PETERS DREAMP
  4. C4#1INDIANA SMOKE SHOWS
  5. C5#4STARRY EYE JUSTICEC
  6. C6#3IMALITTLETHIRSTYS
  7. C7#7UNBRIDLED SABBATHC
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #6 LUNA DIVA and #5 FOCACCIA. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #2 PETERS DREAM, #1 INDIANA SMOKE SHOW, #3 IMALITTLETHIRSTY · hurts #6 LUNA DIVA, #5 FOCACCIA

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #6 LUNA DIVA and #5 FOCACCIA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #2 PETERS DREAM, #1 INDIANA SMOKE SHOW, #3 IMALITTLETHIRSTY · hurts #6 LUNA DIVA, #5 FOCACCIA

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 INDIANA SMOKE SHOW, #4 STARRY EYE JUSTICE, #3 IMALITTLETHIRSTY, #7 UNBRIDLED SABBATH).

Helps #1 INDIANA SMOKE SHOW, #4 STARRY EYE JUSTICE, #3 IMALITTLETHIRSTY, #7 UNBRIDLED SABBATH · hurts #6 LUNA DIVA, #5 FOCACCIA

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
6LUNA DIVAPRESCOTT R3.0EP2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip2026-08-18 IND 4f 49.00 B MT ft 18/49; 2026-07-24 IND 4f 49.40 B MT ft 21/37 · barn: same as lastfsClm12500b → Clm 12500bDURAN ANTONIOoverlay
4STARRY EYE JUSTICEDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO2.0C2nd off layoffClass drop2026-08-21 IND 4f 47.80 B MT ft 3/26; 2026-08-06 IND 3f 37.60 B MT ft 3/9 · barn: same as lastfsAlw43000n2x → Clm 12500bKLOPP RANDYFavorite
1INDIANA SMOKE SHOWMONCADA IRVING4.0SRising figsSame trip2026-03-27 IND 5f 61.40 B MT sy 4/21; 2026-03-19 IND 5f 61.80 B MT ft 20/26 · barn: same as lastfsClm12500b → Clm 12500bKLOPP RANDYfield
5FOCACCIAGUTIERREZ JOSE RAMOS6.0EPTag dropLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-17 IND 5f 62.00 B MT ft 5/8; 2026-09-09 IND 4f 49.60 B MT ft 15/29 · barn: same as lastfsClm15000n2l → Clm 12500bMULLINS SCOTT Doverlay
3IMALITTLETHIRSTYMURRILL MITCHELL6.0S2nd off layoffSame trip2026-03-28 IND 4f 51.20 B MT ft 74/78; 2026-03-18 MVR 4f 48.80 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as lastfsClm12500b → Clm 12500bGORHAM ROBERT Mfield
7UNBRIDLED SABBATHMENDOZA AMIR8.0CRising figs3rd start cycleClass drop2026-09-22 IND 4f 48.60 B MT my 4/5; 2026-08-15 IND 4f 50.60 B MT ft 63/77 · barn: same as lastfsAlw43000n2x → Clm 12500bHARAN JOHNprimed
2PETERS DREAMMEEKS MICAH15.0PTrouble last2026-09-19 IND 5f 60.20 B MT ft 2/5; 2026-07-29 IND 4f 52.80 B MT ft 56/60 · barn: same as lastfClm12500n2x → Clm 12500bHARAN JOHNfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACEIND R1 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 12500b
  2. SHAPETwo-EP duel (#6 vs #5) · pressure high · stalkers/closers get a gift if speed empties
  3. CHALKFavorite#4 STARRY EYE JUSTICE · fade · last fig 30 on turf, negative model edge, deep closer with no pace to chase in Scenario A
  4. LEANWinner call#6 LUNA DIVA · 2nd off layoff, top e1 in field, highest zPace, ML 3 overlay at model 0.248
  5. PRIMED#7 UNBRIDLED SABBATH (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, class drop) — C-only path, not a win play
  6. PRICE#6 LUNA DIVA edge +0.046 · #5 FOCACCIA edge +0.027 (both non-chalk overlays)
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#6 LUNA DIVA · win · min 3-1 (ML is exactly 3; needs to hold or drift — at 5-2 pass)
  8. KILL#5 FOCACCIA matches LUNA DIVA stride-for-stride and they both empty; or chalk breaks cleanly and stalks a slow pace
  9. MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint claiming at IND, tight $12,500 tag, seven starters — moderate volatility with a clear pace question at the top.

Two EP types (#6 LUNA DIVA, #5 FOCACCIA) project to hook up on the front end, making this a duel/pressure shape with the chalk (#4 STARRY EYE JUSTICE) a steep drop from allowance company but running off a turf fig of 30 and a negative model edge.

#7 UNBRIDLED SABBATH is the ingest-flagged primed horse (rising figs, third start of cycle, class drop) but its pace style is C and its barn's Turf-to-Dirt and Rte-to-Sprint splits are both sub-8% win — path only opens in Scenario C, not A or B, making it price-only underneath, not a win bet.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#6 LUNA DIVA+4.6%ML 3.02nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip
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#5 FOCACCIA+2.7%ML 6.0Tag dropLed lastTop last figSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#7 UNBRIDLED SABBATHML 8.0Rising figs3rd start cycleClass drop

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
6LUNA DIVA3.020.1%24.8%+4.6%0.95EP2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip—
4STARRY EYE JUSTICE2.026.8%21.2%-5.6%-0.81Cfavorite2nd off layoffClass drop—
1INDIANA SMOKE SHOW4.016.1%17.8%+1.7%0.52SRising figsSame trip—
5FOCACCIA6.011.5%14.2%+2.7%0.97EPTag dropLed lastTop last figSame trip—
3IMALITTLETHIRSTY6.011.5%10.6%-0.9%-0.20S2nd off layoffSame trip—
7UNBRIDLED SABBATH8.08.9%7.3%-1.6%-0.69CRising figs3rd start cycleClass drop—
2PETERS DREAM15.05.0%4.1%-1.0%-0.73PTrouble last—