IND R9 · 2026-09-30
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#2 #9 #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2WATCHERE
- C2#9RICH IN FAITHE
- C3#4LIL GIN N CLASSP
- C4#7ITZFOREVERC
- C5#3SCREAMIN NINAEP
- C6#6LOUDER THAN WORDSP
- C7#11YOTOWINS
- C8#10HOOSIER PROMISEC
- C9#5TEMPLE PAYNTERP
- C10#8PAY ME LATERC
- C11#1INNISFREE LASSC
Honest pace among #2 WATCHER and #9 RICH IN FAITH and #3 SCREAMIN NINA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 LIL GIN N CLASS, #6 LOUDER THAN WORDS, #5 TEMPLE PAYNTER, #11 YOTOWIN · hurts #2 WATCHER, #9 RICH IN FAITH, #3 SCREAMIN NINA
Pressure: #2 WATCHER and #9 RICH IN FAITH and #3 SCREAMIN NINA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 LIL GIN N CLASS, #6 LOUDER THAN WORDS, #5 TEMPLE PAYNTER, #11 YOTOWIN · hurts #2 WATCHER, #9 RICH IN FAITH, #3 SCREAMIN NINA
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 ITZFOREVER, #11 YOTOWIN, #10 HOOSIER PROMISE, #8 PAY ME LATER, #1 INNISFREE LASS).
Helps #7 ITZFOREVER, #11 YOTOWIN, #10 HOOSIER PROMISE, #8 PAY ME LATER, #1 INNISFREE LASS · hurts #2 WATCHER, #9 RICH IN FAITH, #3 SCREAMIN NINA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | WATCHERDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO | 3.5 | E | Rising figsSharp workTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-09-23 IND 4f 48.80 B MT ft 14/46; 2026-09-16 IND 5f 61.60 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fAlw42160n1x → PiediBchHB150k | WEST AARON M | Favorite |
| 7 | ITZFOREVERSANJUR SANTO | 4.0 | C | Same trip2026-08-15 IND 4f 48.20 B MT ft 13/77; 2026-07-14 IND 4f 49.20 B MT ft 12/21 · barn: same as last | fsHooHtlndH100k → PiediBchHB150k | GRANITZ ANTHONY J | field |
| 5 | TEMPLE PAYNTERRAMOS JOSEPH D | 5.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-23 IND 3f 38.00 B MT ft 8/19; 2026-08-21 IND 3f 37.40 B MT ft 6/14 · barn: same as last | fsPeonyH100k → PiediBchHB150k | KLOPP RANDY | field |
| 3 | SCREAMIN NINAMONCADA IRVING | 6.0 | EP | Same trip2026-09-24 IND 4f 48.60 B MT ft 8/33; 2026-09-05 IND 5f 61.00 B MT ft 3/14 · barn: same as last | fsHooHtlndH100k → PiediBchHB150k | FOSDICK STEVE | field |
| 6 | LOUDER THAN WORDSPEDROZA MARCELINO | 8.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-15 IND 4f 48.20 B MT ft 13/77; 2026-07-14 IND 4f 49.20 B MT ft 12/21 · barn: same as last | fsPeonyH100k → PiediBchHB150k | GRANITZ ANTHONY J | field |
| 9 | RICH IN FAITHLEAHEY HANNAH | 8.0 | E | Same trip2026-04-15 IND 4f 47.20 Bg MT ft 2/28; 2026-03-25 IND 4f 51.80 B MT ft 28/30 · barn: same as last | fAlw38080n1x → PiediBchHB150k | RILEY DONNA | field |
| 8 | PAY ME LATERULLOA ANDRES P | 10.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-06 IND 4f 50.00 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-05-29 IND 5f 61.80 B MT ft 12/25 · barn: same as last | fsAlw40200n2x → PiediBchHB150k | GORHAM ROBERT M | field |
| 4 | LIL GIN N CLASSESQUIVEL EMMANUEL | 12.0 | P | Led lastSame trip2026-06-16 IND 4f 47.20 B MT ft 2/33; 2026-06-04 IND 4f 47.20 B MT ft 3/20 · barn: same as last | fOC50000b → PiediBchHB150k | EGGLESTON TIM | field |
| 1 | INNISFREE LASSBURGOS ALBERTO | 10.0 | C | 3rd start cycleTrouble lastSame trip2026-09-24 IND 4f 49.80 B MT ft 19/33; 2026-09-02 IND 4f 51.80 B MT ft 25/26 · barn: same as last | fsHooHtlndH100k → PiediBchHB150k | HARAN JOHN | primed |
| 10 | HOOSIER PROMISEMURRILL MITCHELL | 15.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-06 IND 4f 51.20 B MT ft 29/37; 2026-07-09 IND 4f 49.00 B MT ft 15/28 · barn: same as last | fAlw38080n1x → PiediBchHB150k | GRANITZ ANTHONY J | field |
| 11 | YOTOWINROMAN EVIN A | 25.0 | S | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-22 IND 4f 46.60 B MT my bullet 1/5; 2026-09-02 IND 4f 49.20 B MT ft 12/26 · barn: same as last | fsAlw40200n2x → PiediBchHB150k | LABRA ROGELIO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEIND R9 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt route 1870y · PiediBchHB $150k
- SHAPEThree-way early pressure (#2 #9 #3); speed/inside bias; stalkers and closers outside need a duel to materialize
- CHALKFavorite#2 WATCHER · solid · top fig, climbing cycle, bullet work, inside post, maps cleanly to A/B despite the class jump
- LEANWinner call#2 WATCHER · best horse with the best trip in a shape that suits her
- PRIMED#1 INNISFREE LASS (3rd-start cycle, trouble last) — flags present but negative model edge, fig ceiling 71, C-only path, no overlay; note only
- PRICEno price — zero non-chalk overlays on the board
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#9 RICH IN FAITH pressures #2 into a true duel neither survives; class jump exposes a ceiling; #3 SCREAMIN NINA sneaks a ground-saving trip in front
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition at post time, rider changes
Why
Dirt route, $150k non-graded handicap, 11-horse field at Indiana with a speed/inside bias that punishes closers starting outside — moderate-to-high volatility given the class jump and a genuine three-way speed duel shaping up. Chalk #2 WATCHER (ML 3.5) is the standout: top fig in the field (88), climbing figs, a bullet work, inside post, and a clean path in Scenario A/B — she is solid and fits the track profile perfectly, though she steps way up in class from an allowance. The sheet's only primed horse is #1 INNISFREE LASS (3rd start of cycle, trouble last — rallied 4-wide then faltered in the stretch, which is a pace-related collapse not a fitness concern) but her figs top out at 71, she draws post 1 as a closer in a bias that favors inside *speed*, the model edge is negative, and she has no price overlay — her path is C-only, meaning she only wins if the speed melts, which is a longshot scenario not a win bet.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | WATCHER | 3.5 | 16.9% | 22.6% | +5.7% | 1.35 | E | favoriteRising figsSharp workTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 7 | ITZFOREVER | 4.0 | 15.2% | 15.5% | +0.2% | 0.25 | C | Same trip | — |
| 5 | TEMPLE PAYNTER | 5.0 | 12.7% | 11.3% | -1.4% | -0.27 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | SCREAMIN NINA | 6.0 | 10.9% | 9.3% | -1.5% | -0.41 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 6 | LOUDER THAN WORDS | 8.0 | 8.5% | 8.7% | +0.3% | 0.31 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 9 | RICH IN FAITH | 8.0 | 8.5% | 7.0% | -1.5% | -0.56 | E | Same trip | — |
| 8 | PAY ME LATER | 10.0 | 6.9% | 6.7% | -0.2% | 0.08 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 4 | LIL GIN N CLASS | 12.0 | 5.9% | 6.3% | +0.5% | 0.49 | P | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | INNISFREE LASS | 10.0 | 6.9% | 5.3% | -1.6% | -0.85 | C | 3rd start cycleTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 10 | HOOSIER PROMISE | 15.0 | 4.8% | 4.9% | +0.1% | 0.28 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 11 | YOTOWIN | 25.0 | 2.9% | 2.4% | -0.6% | -0.67 | S | Sharp workSame trip | — |