SA R9 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7FEELING LUCKYP
- C2#9CALS GOALS
- C3#10CARDIFF CRACKC
- C4#1KEEP DANCIN NICKC
- C5#2MISS JOS CURLINS
- C6#11HIGHPLAINSDRIFTERC
- C7#3OOBUBBAKAKAYOS
- C8#8WE CANC
- C9#12KERRY GOLDC
- C10#4DRUIDICC
- C11#5STYLISHLYACCLAIMEDS
- C12#6LUCKY N SMARTC
- C13#13JIMMY BLUE JEANSP
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #7 FEELING LUCKY, #13 JIMMY BLUE JEANS, #9 CALS GOAL, #2 MISS JOS CURLIN, #3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO, #5 STYLISHLYACCLAIMED · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #7 FEELING LUCKY, #13 JIMMY BLUE JEANS, #9 CALS GOAL, #2 MISS JOS CURLIN, #3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO, #5 STYLISHLYACCLAIMED · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#9 CALS GOAL, #10 CARDIFF CRACK, #1 KEEP DANCIN NICK, #2 MISS JOS CURLIN, #11 HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER, #3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO, #8 WE CAN, #12 KERRY GOLD, #4 DRUIDIC, #5 STYLISHLYACCLAIMED, #6 LUCKY N SMART).
Helps #9 CALS GOAL, #10 CARDIFF CRACK, #1 KEEP DANCIN NICK, #2 MISS JOS CURLIN, #11 HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER, #3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO, #8 WE CAN, #12 KERRY GOLD, #4 DRUIDIC, #5 STYLISHLYACCLAIMED, #6 LUCKY N SMART · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FEELING LUCKYROSARIO JOEL | 2.5 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-21 SA 4f 49.20 H MT ft 44/73; 2026-09-14 SA 4f 48.80 H MT ft 35/79 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | KORINER BRIAN | Favorite |
| 5 | STYLISHLYACCLAIMEDJARAMILLO E | 3.5 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-23 SA 3f 37.00 H MT ft 5/10; 2026-09-16 SA 5f 61.00 H MT ft 4/9 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | GAINES CARLA | primed |
| 9 | CALS GOALAYUSO ARMANDO | 6.0 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-09-05 DMR 4f 48.20 H MT ft 13/68; 2026-08-13 DMR 5f 60.40 H MT ft 8/42 · barn: same as last | OC80000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | YAKTEEN TIM | primed |
| 10 | CARDIFF CRACKPEREIRA TIAGO | 8.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-19 SA 5f 62.00 H MT ft 42/53; 2026-08-16 DMR 5f 61.20 H MT ft 30/62 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | MCLEAN BILL | overlay |
| 6 | LUCKY N SMARTKIMURA KAZUSHI | 4.5 | C | —2026-09-20 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 34/75; 2026-08-09 DMR 3f 37.20 H MT ft 12/30 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | GAINES CARLA | field |
| 8 | WE CANBAZE T C | 10.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-19 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 19/53; 2026-09-12 SA 5f 59.60 H MT ft bullet 1/28 · barn: same as last | OC50000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | KORINER BRIAN | field |
| 2 | MISS JOS CURLINHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 10.0 | S | 3rd start cycleHidden pace2026-09-19 SA 4f 48.00 H MT ft 18/98; 2026-08-28 DMR 4f 48.60 H MT ft 16/52 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | GALVIN BRENDAN W | primed |
| 11 | HIGHPLAINSDRIFTERORANTES WELFIN R | 20.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-20 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 34/75; 2026-09-13 SA 4f 49.00 H MT ft 45/74 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | PUYPE MIKE | field |
| 13 | JIMMY BLUE JEANSAGUILAR ARMANDO | 15.0 | P | Class dropBarn changeSame trip2026-09-20 SA 4f 48.60 H MT ft 36/97; 2026-08-22 DMR 3f 34.60 Hg MT ft bullet 1/22 · barn: change vs BAROCIO LIBRADO | Alw16000s → OClm 20000n1x | AGUIRRE PAUL | field |
| 12 | KERRY GOLDFREY KYLE | 20.0 | C | —2026-09-21 SA 4f 48.00 H MT ft 12/73; 2026-07-06 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 40/95 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 20000n1x | AZCARATE DAN | field |
| 3 | OOBUBBAKAKAYODESORMEAUX K J | 30.0 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip2026-08-28 LA 4f 48.40 H MT ft 4/10; 2026-08-21 LA 5f 59.20 H MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | Clm12500n2x → OClm 20000n1x | VALLEJO GENARO | primed |
| 1 | KEEP DANCIN NICKVAN DYKE DRAYDEN | 30.0 | C | Hidden paceSharp workSame trip2026-09-20 SA 6f 74.60 H MT ft 1/1; 2026-09-14 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 20000n1x | MIYADI STEVEN | field |
| 4 | DRUIDICHERRERA CRISTOBAL | 30.0 | C | Class dropSame trip2026-09-20 SA 5f 62.20 H MT ft 53/75; 2026-08-17 DMR 5f 61.20 Hg MT ft 27/54 · barn: same as last | Alw16000s → OClm 20000n1x | AZCARATE DAN | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R9 · 2026-09-27 · Turf 1760y · OClm 20000n1x
- SHAPENo dedicated early; crawl favors pressers/stalkers; closers may lack target — moderate pressure, high volatility (13-horse field, surface/class mix)
- CHALKFavorite#7 FEELING LUCKY · solid · rising figs, same trip, clean pace path in Scenario A, but 2.5 ML is chalk — no play at that price
- LEANWinner call#7 FEELING LUCKY · best overall profile with rising figs and shape fit
- PRIMED#3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, top LP 98, same trip); #5 STYLISHLYACCLAIMED (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, same trip); #9 CALS GOAL (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, big class drop OC80k→OClm20k); #2 MISS JOS CURLIN (3rd start cycle, hidden pace LP 85)
- PRICE#10 CARDIFF CRACK (8 ML, edge 0.020, rising figs 94 vs 90, same trip, route-to-route, closer with path in Scenario A/B if pace collapses)
- PLAYPrice ticket#3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO · 30 ML · WIN · minimum 20-1 — stacked flags (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, top field LP, same trip) offset by dirt-to-turf barn key (-0.39 ITM%) and small turf sample; at 20-1 the overlay is real, below that PASS
- KILLOff-turf switch voids; if the crawl never materializes and a speed duel develops, closers inherit and OOBUBBAKAKAYO's stalker path is compromised; last win was on dirt (LRC), turf sample thin
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, going condition (firm vs soft matters on turf routes), rider changes not in PP lines
Why
Thirteen-horse turf route at the OC/Claiming 20k level is a high-volatility field with no dedicated early pace, making this a crawl-likely scenario where stalkers and pressers hold the advantage over one-run closers. The chalk #7 FEELING LUCKY (2.5 ML) posted a sharp rising fig (94 vs 87) and fits the stalking shape in Scenario A, making it solid at the price but too short to play. #3 OOBUBBAKAKAYO is the most stacked primed non-chalk: rising figs (+13, 85 vs 72), second off layoff, and the top late-pace figure in the field (LP 98), with a stalker path that fits Scenario A on a crawl.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FEELING LUCKY | 2.5 | 20.7% | 25.2% | +4.5% | 1.10 | P | favoriteRising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | STYLISHLYACCLAIMED | 3.5 | 16.1% | 15.8% | -0.3% | 0.23 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 9 | CALS GOAL | 6.0 | 10.4% | 11.5% | +1.2% | 0.74 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |
| 10 | CARDIFF CRACK | 8.0 | 8.1% | 10.1% | +2.0% | 1.21 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | LUCKY N SMART | 4.5 | 13.2% | 9.5% | -3.6% | -0.98 | C | — | |
| 8 | WE CAN | 10.0 | 6.6% | 7.0% | +0.4% | 0.56 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 2 | MISS JOS CURLIN | 10.0 | 6.6% | 5.8% | -0.8% | -0.18 | S | 3rd start cycleHidden pace | — |
| 11 | HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER | 20.0 | 3.5% | 3.4% | -0.0% | 0.28 | C | Same trip | — |
| 13 | JIMMY BLUE JEANS | 15.0 | 4.5% | 3.0% | -1.5% | -1.34 | P | Class dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 12 | KERRY GOLD | 20.0 | 3.5% | 2.6% | -0.9% | -0.88 | C | — | |
| 3 | OOBUBBAKAKAYO | 30.0 | 2.3% | 2.1% | -0.3% | -0.21 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | KEEP DANCIN NICK | 30.0 | 2.3% | 2.0% | -0.3% | -0.26 | C | Hidden paceSharp workSame trip | — |
| 4 | DRUIDIC | 30.0 | 2.3% | 2.0% | -0.3% | -0.27 | C | Class dropSame trip | — |