MNR R7 · 2026-10-06
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#4 #6 #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4SOUPERGIRLE
- C2#6GIULIANAS DREAME
- C3#3ANHINGAE
- C4#5BACK ON TRACKP
- C5#1GOLDCRESTP
- C6#2TATOR MADEC
Honest pace among #4 SOUPERGIRL and #6 GIULIANAS DREAM and #3 ANHINGA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #5 BACK ON TRACK, #1 GOLDCREST · hurts #4 SOUPERGIRL, #6 GIULIANAS DREAM, #3 ANHINGA
Pressure: #4 SOUPERGIRL and #6 GIULIANAS DREAM and #3 ANHINGA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #5 BACK ON TRACK, #1 GOLDCREST · hurts #4 SOUPERGIRL, #6 GIULIANAS DREAM, #3 ANHINGA
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 TATOR MADE).
Helps #2 TATOR MADE · hurts #4 SOUPERGIRL, #6 GIULIANAS DREAM, #3 ANHINGA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SOUPERGIRLNEGRON LUIS | 1.2 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-09-18 WO 4f 47.60 B MT ft 14/47; 2026-08-29 FE 3f 37.60 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as last | frLngrnAftCr30k → OClm 15000 | ADAMO ANTHONY | Favorite |
| 5 | BACK ON TRACKLEON JOSE A | 2.5 | P | Led lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-29 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 4/8; 2026-06-14 MNR 4f 48.80 B MT ft 2/17 · barn: same as last | fOC35000b → OClm 15000 | SILVA JUAN PABLO | Favorite |
| 1 | GOLDCRESTHALDAR HUMBERTO | 6.0 | P | Rising figsTop last fig2026-05-03 PRX 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-03-06 PRX 3f 36.60 B MT sy 1/1 · barn: same as last | fOC12500 → OClm 15000 | VAZQUEZ JUAN CARLOS | field |
| 3 | ANHINGABARBARAN ERIK | 5.0 | E | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-25 PID 4f 47.60 B MT ft 3/10; 2026-09-04 PID 4f 47.20 B MT ft 3/15 · barn: same as last | fClm16000 → OClm 15000 | SKAWINSKI CAROL A | field |
| 6 | GIULIANAS DREAMSILVA JUAN PABLO JR | 10.0 | E | Trouble lastLed lastBarn changeSame trip2026-06-02 CT 3f 36.60 B MT ft 3/11; 2026-04-19 TAM 5f 62.20 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: change vs FARRIOR ANTHONY | fClm3200bc → OClm 15000 | SILVA JUAN PABLO | field |
| 2 | TATOR MADEGREENIDGE ELIJAH | 15.0 | C | Rising figs2026-05-24 GP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 18/20; 2026-03-03 TAM 5f 63.80 B MT ft 4/4 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n1x → OClm 15000 | LOPEZ OLMEDA RACHEL LYNN | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R7 · 2026-10-06 · D 1210y OClm 15000
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#4 #6 #3) sets up honest-to-hot pace; closer bias (50% of recent D winners) favors anyone who can sit off the carnage; stalkers #5 and #1 best positioned
- CHALKFavorite#4 SOUPERGIRL · solid on class and speed figs but 1.2 ML — automatic pass, not a bet at any price this sheet would call
- LEANWinner call#5 BACK ON TRACK · top speed fig, top e1, drops from OC35k, and the pace sets up for a presser who can sit second and kick
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches two ready flags)
- PRICEno price — no non-chalk overlay clears the bar; #1 GOLDCREST has rising figs and a pace path but is model-negative (edge −0.004) and the brief flags no overlay
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLIf #4 SOUPERGIRL clears uncontested and the duel never materializes, lone-speed wins and the shape argument collapses; also, #5's last two figs (84, 85) off wins at lower pace may not fire at ML 2.5 without an actual duel
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition change, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint OClm 15000 at MNR, six horses, closer-biased track — moderate-to-high volatility given three early types who all need room. Wall of speed (#4 SOUPERGIRL, #6 GIULIANAS DREAM, #3 ANHINGA) sets up a duel that the bias stats favor resolving for a closer or stalker; both chalks (#4 at 1.2, #5 BACK ON TRACK at 2.5) are overlay by model but too short to play, and #4 is an extreme chalk. No horse clears the two-flag primed threshold on non-chalk runners: #1 GOLDCREST has rising figs (87 last, top fig in field) and a route-to-sprint cutback but is a closer/presser cutting back from routes while the bias says closers win 50% of recent sprints here, giving it a path in A or B off the hot pace — one signal, not two.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SOUPERGIRL | 1.2 | 37.8% | 41.3% | +3.5% | 0.78 | E | favoriteLed lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | BACK ON TRACK | 2.5 | 23.7% | 26.6% | +2.9% | 0.88 | P | favoriteLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | GOLDCREST | 6.0 | 11.9% | 11.5% | -0.4% | 0.29 | P | Rising figsTop last fig | — |
| 3 | ANHINGA | 5.0 | 13.9% | 10.8% | -3.1% | -0.59 | E | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 6 | GIULIANAS DREAM | 10.0 | 7.6% | 6.0% | -1.5% | -0.48 | E | Trouble lastLed lastBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 2 | TATOR MADE | 15.0 | 5.2% | 3.8% | -1.4% | -0.88 | C | Rising figs | — |