CT R7 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#5 #10 #7 #2 #3)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5NAMASTEE
- C2#10NO DIRECTIONEP
- C3#7LITTLE MAGGIEEP
- C4#2SAICHIS GIRLEP
- C5#3OUR MISS CROSSBOWEP
- C6#1AMAMAP
- C7#6CANT DENY THISC
- C8#4OUR STREET ANGELC
- C9#8SUMMON THE GLAMC
- C10#9BULLYS NOTIONC
Honest pace among #5 NAMASTE and #10 NO DIRECTION and #7 LITTLE MAGGIE and #2 SAICHIS GIRL and #3 OUR MISS CROSSBOW. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 AMAMA · hurts #5 NAMASTE, #10 NO DIRECTION, #7 LITTLE MAGGIE, #2 SAICHIS GIRL, #3 OUR MISS CROSSBOW
Pressure: #5 NAMASTE and #10 NO DIRECTION and #7 LITTLE MAGGIE and #2 SAICHIS GIRL and #3 OUR MISS CROSSBOW hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 AMAMA · hurts #5 NAMASTE, #10 NO DIRECTION, #7 LITTLE MAGGIE, #2 SAICHIS GIRL, #3 OUR MISS CROSSBOW
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 CANT DENY THIS, #4 OUR STREET ANGEL, #8 SUMMON THE GLAM, #9 BULLYS NOTION).
Helps #6 CANT DENY THIS, #4 OUR STREET ANGEL, #8 SUMMON THE GLAM, #9 BULLYS NOTION · hurts #5 NAMASTE, #10 NO DIRECTION, #7 LITTLE MAGGIE, #2 SAICHIS GIRL, #3 OUR MISS CROSSBOW
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NAMASTEBARBOSA JEIRON | 2.5 | E | Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-07-03 CT 3f 35.60 B MT ft 2/5; 2026-06-11 CT 4f 47.40 Bg MT gd bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fsAlw34100n2l → Alw 35300n3l | WALTERS DAVID L | Favorite |
| 3 | OUR MISS CROSSBOWBOCACHICA ARNALDO | 3.5 | EP | Same trip2026-09-19 CT 4f 48.80 B MT ft bullet 1/19; 2026-09-12 CT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 8/28 · barn: same as last | fsAlw32800n3l → Alw 35300n3l | RUNCO JEFF C | field |
| 4 | OUR STREET ANGELLOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO | 4.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-07-13 CT 3f 36.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-03-14 CT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 21/30 · barn: same as last | fsAlw35300n3l → Alw 35300n3l | GRAMS TIMOTHY C | primed |
| 6 | CANT DENY THISACOSTA J D | 4.5 | C | Same trip2026-09-12 CT 3f 36.20 B MT ft 5/36; 2026-07-21 CT 3f 36.60 B MT ft 4/15 · barn: same as last | fsAlw34100n1x → Alw 35300n3l | SIGLER RONALD G | field |
| 2 | SAICHIS GIRLHIRALDO CHRISTIAN | 12.0 | EP | Same trip2026-09-29 CT 4f 50.40 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-08-28 CT 4f 52.40 B MT ft 5/5 · barn: same as last | fsAlw35300n3l → Alw 35300n3l | BOGGS JOANNA | field |
| 10 | NO DIRECTIONMAYHEW G W | 10.0 | EP | Same trip2026-05-29 CT 3f 38.40 B MT ft 27/29; 2026-02-13 CT 3f 38.20 B MT ft 9/15 · barn: same as last | fsAlw35300n3l → Alw 35300n3l | JACKSON ANGELO G | field |
| 9 | BULLYS NOTIONDAVIS JACQUELINE A | 12.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-04-18 CT 3f 35.60 B MT ft 2/27; 2026-01-22 CT 3f 37.00 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fsAlw35300n3l → Alw 35300n3l | VENHAM LYN D | field |
| 1 | AMAMAARROYO BUENO NOMAR | 15.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2025-12-22 CT 3f 36.60 B MT ft 1/2; 2025-07-24 CT 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 11/15 · barn: same as last | fsClm15000n2l → Alw 35300n3l | ADORNO JEAN L | field |
| 8 | SUMMON THE GLAMLARROSA G | 20.0 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-05 CT 3f 37.60 B MT ft 15/30; 2026-07-21 CT 6f 76.80 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | fsAlw35300n3l → Alw 35300n3l | PETTY KRISTY | field |
| 7 | LITTLE MAGGIEREYNOLDS L C | 20.0 | EP | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-06 CT 3f 35.00 B MT wf bullet 1/6; 2026-07-15 CT 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft 2/8 · barn: same as last | fsAlw35300n3l → Alw 35300n3l | GRAMS TIMOTHY C | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACECT R7 · 2026-10-09 · Dirt 1430y · Alw 35300n3l
- SHAPEWall of five early/pressers (#5 #10 #7 #2 #3) sets extreme pressure; closers inherit in C, stalker (#1) improves in A/B — speed bias and inside bias at CT favor whoever clears early
- CHALKFavorite#5 NAMASTE · opposable on pace grounds (duel likely) but owns top fig (76) and top E1 in the field — solid despite the shape risk
- LEANWinner call#5 NAMASTE · best number, best pace figure, won at this condition — survives even a duel if rivals empty
- PRIMED#4 OUR STREET ANGEL (rising figs 68→73, 3rd start cycle, LP 81–85, tracks duel from mid-pack)
- PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlays on the ML)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#5 gets hooked in a genuine duel with #10 or #7 and both empty — closers (#4 #9) inherit but no overlay price exists to act on
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/track condition update, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint at CT in allowance n3l company, field of 10, moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early/pressers and a 2.5 ML chalk that has top speed figures and pace figures in this field. Shape is extreme pressure — five horses project near the front in scenarios A and B, which favors the lone stalker (#1 AMAMA) but the pace shape also benefits closers only in C; the chalk (#5 NAMASTE) is opposable on pace grounds alone but still owns the best figs and likely survives a duel at this level. The one primed horse is #4 OUR STREET ANGEL (rising figs 68→73, 3rd start of cycle, same trip), sitting off the speed from mid-pack with an LP of 81–85 in last two, has a clear A/B path as a closer-type tracking the duel from just off it — but the model shows no overlay (edge −0.004) and the sheet already flags no non-chalk price exists. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NAMASTE | 2.5 | 22.1% | 27.6% | +5.4% | 1.28 | E | favoriteRising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | OUR MISS CROSSBOW | 3.5 | 17.2% | 17.6% | +0.4% | 0.49 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 4 | OUR STREET ANGEL | 4.0 | 15.5% | 15.1% | -0.4% | 0.30 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 6 | CANT DENY THIS | 4.5 | 14.1% | 13.8% | -0.3% | 0.33 | C | Same trip | — |
| 2 | SAICHIS GIRL | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.8% | -0.1% | 0.30 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 10 | NO DIRECTION | 10.0 | 7.0% | 5.7% | -1.3% | -0.44 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 9 | BULLYS NOTION | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.2% | -0.8% | -0.17 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | AMAMA | 15.0 | 4.8% | 3.6% | -1.2% | -0.78 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | SUMMON THE GLAM | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.8% | -0.8% | -0.65 | C | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 7 | LITTLE MAGGIE | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.8% | -0.9% | -0.66 | EP | Rising figsSame trip | — |